Wall Street Daily (January 23): US stocks extended their rebound on Thursday, led by Meta among tech giants; gold surged past $4,955 to hit a new high, while oil prices fell below the $60 mark

[Summary] US stocks extended their rebound on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 0.55%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, Dow Jones up 0.63%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index rising 0.76%. Tensions in Greenland eased further, combined with stronger economic data (Q3 GDP revised up to 4.4%, initial jobless claims dropped to 200,000), restoring market risk appetite. In major asset classes, gold rose 2.22% to $4,955 per ounce, setting a new all-time high; WTI crude oil fell 1.65% to $59.67 per barrel, dropping below the $60 mark; the US dollar index fell 0.50%; Bitcoin remained nearly flat, rising slightly by 0.12%.

I. Major Events

1. Gold surged past $4,955, hitting a record high as uncertainty over Fed leadership heats up

Spot gold rose 2.22% to $4,955 per ounce, reaching a new historical high. Trump revealed at Davos that the candidates for Fed Chair have been narrowed down to “possibly one person”; Treasury Secretary Bessent added that the decision might be announced “next week.” Market concerns about monetary policy independence are rising, driving significant safe-haven flows into gold. Meanwhile, a weaker dollar also supported the rise in gold prices.

Meta surged 5.66%, driven by Jefferies' buy rating and the global expansion of Threads' advertising business

Jefferies initiated coverage on Meta with a 'buy' rating, citing greater certainty in its advertising revenue growth prospects as the core reason. On the corporate side, Meta announced the expansion of its Threads advertising business to approximately 100 countries globally, covering 400 million monthly active users, significantly broadening ad placements beyond the previous focus on the US and Japan. With multiple positive catalysts combined, Meta led gains among tech giants and drove strength across the communications sector.

Crude oil fell below $60, as US inventories increased more than expected

WTI crude oil dropped 1.65%, falling below the key psychological level of $60. EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels, significantly higher than market expectations, amplifying supply-side pressures once again. Meanwhile, with tensions easing in Greenland, geopolitical premiums continued to unwind, leaving oil prices under sustained pressure amid a backdrop of rising inventories and sluggish rebalancing of supply and demand.

II. Major Trends

Small-cap stocks continue to outperform large caps

On the day, IWM rose 0.75%, continuing to outpace SPY’s 0.52%. Over a three-month horizon, small-cap stocks (IWM) gained 11.24%, significantly outperforming large-cap stocks (SPY’s 3.48%). The rotation trend of capital flowing from top-weighted stocks to small- and mid-cap stocks is still ongoing.

2. Value style continues to dominate

Over a three-month period, SPYV rose 4.99%, outperforming SPYG’s 2.23%. Industrial stocks (DIA) climbed 6.40% over three months, while tech stocks (QQQ) only gained 2.65% during the same period. The excess returns of value and cyclical sectors over growth stocks are widening further.

Tech giants remain in short-term adjustments

Although the MAGS ETF rose 2.03% on the day (mainly driven by Meta's surge), it still declined 1.44% over two weeks, with the pace of retracement accelerating. Divergence within M7 became more pronounced – META surged 5.66% in a single day, while NFLX fell 2.13%.

III. Market Sentiment

Panic sentiment continued to ease. The VIX fear index fell 7.46% to 15.64, marking a significant decline for two consecutive days after spiking to 20.09 on Monday, with the market’s pricing of short-term volatility gradually returning to normal.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index slightly rose to 52, remaining in the 'neutral' range for the second consecutive day. The sentiment recovery appears more like a steady warming up rather than a rapid shift to euphoria.

Data also provided stronger support to the market: Q3 GDP was revised up to 4.4%, initial jobless claims dropped to 200,000, and PCE inflation met expectations. The 'soft landing' narrative gained strength, creating a friendlier pricing environment for risk assets.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

The four major index ETFs continued their gains but remained relatively moderate overall. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led with a 0.75% increase, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) lagged with a 0.52% rise. Over the past three months, small-cap stocks have risen by 11.24%, widening the gap with large-cap stocks, and the rotation pattern remains unchanged.

2. Industry Sectors

Communication Services (XLC) surged 1.41% to lead the market, primarily driven by Meta’s impressive 5.66% single-day jump (Meta is the largest weighting in XLC). Real Estate (XLRE) fell 0.99%, showing the weakest performance. Although Trump announced200 billion dollarsa $200 billion mortgage bond plan, uncertainty surrounding Fed personnel has kept sentiment cautious in interest-rate-sensitive sectors. Overall, the sector structure continues to reflect an 'offense-leading, defense-lagging' characteristic, consistent with the improving risk appetite.

3. Seven Major Tech Stocks

Within M7, the trend of 'the strong getting stronger and the weak weaker' persisted. Meta (META) stood out with a 5.66% surge, fueled by Jefferies’ buy rating and the global expansion of Threads advertising. Tesla (TSLA) rose 4.15% after Elon Musk stated that Austin robotaxis would remove human safety monitors, which the market interpreted as another step forward in autonomous driving commercialization. Netflix (NFLX) fell 2.13%, extending its post-earnings pullback, with Argus lowering its target price to $110. The MAGS ETF gained 2.03% overall.

4. Chinese概念股

Chinese stocks continued their strong performance, though individual stock divergence widened. Alibaba (BABA) led with a 5.05% gain as market attention on China's AI concepts remained high, with discussions around Tongyi Qianwen continuing to support sentiment. Bilibili (BILI) rose 4.53%, showing strength in the tech space amid active call option trading. JD.com (JD) climbed 3.20%, following the sector’s upward trend. Futu (FUTU) fell 2.39%, moving against the broader rally in Chinese stocks.

5. Cryptocurrencies and related stocks

Bitcoin edged up 0.12%, performing relatively flat amid improved risk appetite. Palantir (PLTR) rose slightly by 0.34%. Mining stock Marathon (MARA) fell 2.56% after Rosenblatt cut its target price to $15, citing worsening Bitcoin mining competition, with network hash rate competition deteriorating continuously since 2025.

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