Manager's exclusive reveal: What undisclosed wealth codes do Futu's star analysts foresee for 2026?

Hello fellow investors! Looking back at 2025, Futu’s star analysts have engaged with everyone throughmultiple offline lecturesfostering in-depth exchanges and sparking many intellectual insights.

Looking ahead to the new year 2026, we believe everyone is curious about:How will the Hong Kong and US stock markets trend in 2026? Which sector will see real opportunities? And what are the potential risks?

This time, we’ve once again gathered Futu’s team of analysts to distill their exclusive thoughts on 2026 into a [2026 Opening Outlook · Core Trends Report].This is not just a summary of viewpoints but also a document encapsulating professional perspectives."Essential Layout Guide at the Start of the Year"。

Without further ado, let's dive in!

Exclusive preview by Futu Securities Senior Strategist Fung Man Wai:

Looking back at the performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2025, four rebound phases are clearly visible, according to a senior analyst at Futu Securities,@富途馮文慧 AnnaThe first wave ran from January to March, driven by the AI boom and valuation recovery; the second wave from April to June was influenced by the temporary suspension of tariff policies; the third wave from July to October benefited from continuous inflows of 'northbound funds' and an IPO boom; the fourth wave from October to November was dominated by rising expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts.This 'rising wave after wave' pattern shows that the market is in a healthy upward channel.Each pullback may become an opportunity for capital to reposition, rather than a reversal of the trend. This market structure provides a solid foundation for investment positioning in 2026.

Despite significant gains in 2025, Hong Kong stock valuations remain at a'lowland' state compared to major global markets."Valuation advantage is only the first step to attracting capital. To achieve continuous growth, it requires the support of two major engines: earnings growth and capital inflow." The market generally expects that as China’s mainland economy steadily recovers,Corporate earnings in Hong Kong stocks in 2026 will become the new driving force for the market.，especially in sectors like technology and internet, where profit growth rates are expected to improve significantly.。

The outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains optimistic, but investors need to stay risk-aware.The timing and pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, changes in geopolitical conditions, and the stability of China’s economic recovery all affect market trends. Looking ahead, Hong Kong stocks in the medium to long term will continue their upward trend supported by policy backing, restored liquidity, and new economic industries. She anticipates,'In the most optimistic scenario, the Hang Seng Index could reach 30,000 points next year, but this would require further policy support.'She suggests adopting a"Growth + Defense"Dual-track allocation strategy. On offense, investors can Focus on AI and technological innovation.industries to capture growth opportunities; defensively, one can secure returns throughlow-volatility dividend or high-quality high-dividend stocksto hedge against market uncertainties.

Feng Wenhui is a licensed person with the Securities and Futures Commission, and she and her associates do not hold financial interests in the recommended stock issuers.

Exclusive preview by Futu Securities Chief Analyst Tam Chi Lok:

In 2025, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed major markets like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. Futu Securities' chief analyst @富途譚智樂 Arnoldstated, "Technological advancements (catching up on AI technology) and state-owned enterprise reforms (new nine-article policy) have boosted market confidence., pushing stock market valuations from average levels to relatively high levels. Additionally, within the year in commodities, gold has performed at approximately +60%. Investors may witness a surge in gold prices; even more noteworthy is the price of silver., which have already reached historical highs (~+100%) so far this year.

He believes that liquidity has significantly improved by 2025.The main reason for the improvement in liquidity is the slowdown in foreign capital outflows and the rise in market confidence. Benefiting from several large IPOs coming to Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has also benefited from the recovery of the IPO market, with its securities market performing well in October.This will help continue to improve economic conditions.。

Looking ahead to 2026, although the valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is no longer particularly cheap compared to before, they still look attractive relative to overseas markets. The stability and development of global capital markets will be very important.Investors may want to keep an eye on the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, China’s globalization efforts and overseas expansion strategies, and the development of AI technology.He mentioned,The Hang Seng Index target for 2026 is31,000 points (Driven by valuation adjustments + growth in the technology sector);Optimistic target at 34,000 points(Supported by improved macroeconomic environment and overall earnings growth). Key focus sectors areTechnology + high-yield stocks。

Tam Chi Lok is a licensed person regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission, and he and his associates do not own any financial interests in the recommended stock issuers

Futu Securities investment strategist Wong Zi Zheng exclusive outlook:

The AI-driven bull market in 2025 concluded perfectly, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 20% for the year and expected to carry this momentum into 2026. Market focus has extended from initial chip manufacturing and data center infrastructure to competition over market share in cloud services.

Futu Securities' investment strategist Huang Zizheng stated: 'Market concerns about an AI valuation bubble began to spread from Q4, with investors voting with their feet, leading to significant pullbacks in cryptocurrencies and stocks with extremely high P/E ratios.'with only tech giants maintaining their market value supported by excellent performance,reflecting a clear decline in short-term risk appetite, with funds flowing further into high-certainty, top-performing stocks."Keep the strong, sell the weak."。」

Looking ahead to 2026,@Brian SirIt is believed that once the next Federal Reserve Chair is confirmed, the tone of hawkish or dovish policy will be set, outlining a clearer interest rate outlook.The market focus in 2026 will still be on AI (artificial intelligence).，However, the focus will shift from AI infrastructure investment to practical application scenarios.In addition to the massive investment in AI infrastructure within the technology sector, financial giants have also begun to announce increased capital expenditures on AI transformation, indicating that AI applications are starting to take root and the AI narrative is far from over.

He believes$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$it has the potential to become a key focus stock in 2026.Moreover,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Through an indirect acquisition of Groq, it gains TPU algorithms to effectively counter Google’s chip challenges; attention should be paid to whether its substantial cash reserves might lead to more strategic acquisitions that widen its competitive moat.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$is expected to spark a new round of"AI + humanoid robots"themes, complemented by SpaceX's upcoming IPO in the US, which will lead to a new valuation story for US stocks. Short-term risk appetite in the US stock market has declined, with funds further concentrating in top-tier leading stocks; it is still too early to talk about a peak.

Huang Zi Zheng is a licensed individual with the Securities and Futures Commission, and neither he nor his associates hold any financial interests in the recommended stock issuers.

Futu Securities’ Executive Director of Institutional and Private Wealth Division, Yu Shi Lin, provides an exclusive preview:

The overall performance of US stocks in 2025 has shown volatility but with resilience. Shi Lin Yu, Executive Director of Institutional and Private Wealth at Futu Securities, stated that the market was affected in the first half of the year by uncertainties surrounding US government tariff policies, adjustments in Fed policy, and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased volatility. The S&P 500 index once dropped by as much as 19%, but it quickly rebounded and hit a new all-time high in June.Tariffs have had some impact on US inflation, but the effect has been slower than expected. Coupled with cooling in the US labor market, Fed Chair Jerome Powell can prioritize employment issues, providing justification for rate cuts.

In terms of valuation, the Nasdaq 100's historical price-to-earnings (PE) ratio over the past decade has averaged about 26.34, typically ranging between 18.40 and 34.27.Currently, at approximately 34.92, it is on the higher side, which he considers 'expensive.'. The historical PE ratio of the S&P 500 has been on an upward trend over the past decade, and the current valuation is relatively high.Key sectors in the US stock market for 2025 include the AI supply chain and biotechnology (Biotech)., focus on these stocks:$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$、$Meta Platforms (META.US)$、$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$，It is believed that leading semiconductor companies will continue to be favored by institutions over the next year.From a PEG perspective, some tech stocks with PEG > 2.0 may be overvalued, and caution is needed regarding the risk of growth falling short of expectations.

Regarding capital expenditure, corporate expansion behaviors in the US differ from those during the dot-com bubble era. Observing the ratio of capital expenditure to free cash flow, the current level is significantly lower than the peak near 2000. This means that companies' capital expenditures can be fully covered by internal cash flows, without triggering a surge in equity or debt financing similar to the bubble period. Will a bubble emerge? It's hard to predict accurately, but currently, we are only in the early stages of potential bubble formation.The bull market in US technology stocks has not ended, and volatility is expected to increase during the next market upswing.

Shi Lin Yu is a licensed person with the SEC, and neither he nor his associates own any financial interests in the recommended stock issuers.

In conclusion

Overall, the store manager has highlighted the key points for everyone:

1. Bottom fishing growth in Hong Kong stocks, embracing leading stocks in the US market.：Focus on Hong Kong stocks"Tech Earnings Recovery" and "High-Yield Defense", US stocks firmly hold onto"AI application leaders", betting on both sides.

2. The main focus for the year is AI application implementation：The narrative shifts from hardware to software and applications,Whoever monetizes, wins.。

3. Market volatility will increase, don't use up all your ammunition at once: Beware of Fed policy and valuation risks, stay patient,Buy on dipsthis is the best strategy.

Alright! Due to limited space, store managerMy personally curated wealth codesThat's all I have to share with everyone today!

If you wish to have face-to-face discussions with analysts and gain more detailed and specific market analysis and stock opinions,We sincerely invite you to sign up for ourin-person lectures at our physical store

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Finally, I wish all fellow investors smooth investments and steady progress in 2026!

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