[HK Stocks Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Tencent, Li Auto, Alibaba, Pop Mart, China Unicom - Post-market Analysis on January 22

: Bullish investors indicate the market will stabilize and rise, with bulls poised to break through highs. Holders of bull contracts have a recovery price at 26,380 points. Some investors also pointed out that there is significant resistance at 26,666 points, suggesting consideration of deploying bear contracts.

Simon: Hello everyone, welcome to today's HK stock review. First, let’s focus on the performance of the Hang Seng Index. On January 22, the Hang Seng closed at 26,629 points. Overall, the change in closing price was limited, and the index continues to exhibit a sideways trading pattern around the 26,600-point level. There are still some investors who are optimistic about the future market, believing that the current level has the potential for further upside. Therefore, they continue to buy nearby bull contracts, the specific terms of which we will analyze later. Other investors believe that 26,666 points is a key technical resistance level, and have deployed short products accordingly. In general, the coexistence of bullish and bearish views is normal. From a technical signal perspective, sell signals currently hold a slight advantage, with 8 sell signals versus 6 buy signals, reflecting that short-term market sentiment may be cautious.

In terms of support levels, the primary support is currently near 26,000 points. If it breaks below this, it may test 25,700 points. Investors holding nearby bull contracts need to be particularly mindful of recovery risks. If the bull contract recovery price is above 26,000 points, the risk is relatively higher. It is recommended to choose products with recovery prices below 26,000 points, or even below 25,700 points, to improve the margin of safety. During periods of market volatility, intraday prices may temporarily touch the recovery price; therefore, choosing products with a certain safety buffer is more prudent.

In terms of terms, bull contracts with recovery prices close to 25,700 points can offer leverage of approximately 26 times; products with recovery prices near 25,500 points offer leverage of about 24 times; and options around 25,500 points provide leverage of approximately 22 times. Investors can compare different terms comprehensively. Although leverage varies slightly, appropriately widening the recovery distance can enhance the product’s risk resilience.

2. Li Auto-W (02015.HK): Investors are watching capital inflows into the auto sector towards the end of the trading session, considering whether the current rebound represents an exit opportunity or the start of an upward trend.

Simon: Next, let's focus on individual stocks. First, analyze Li Auto (2015). The stock saw a slight increase on January 22, with the price consolidating around the 60 yuan level recently. Yesterday, the stock dropped to a low of 61.5 yuan but rebounded on the 22nd, closing at 65.5 yuan, slightly above the middle Bollinger Band. It should be noted that the stock’s recent performance has been relatively weak, trading sideways since mid-October last year and retreating from its previous high of 87 yuan. More positively, the rise on the 22nd was accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating healthy price-volume behavior.

Investors are generally concerned whether this rally represents a technical rebound or a trend reversal. Observing the summary of technical signals, short-term sentiment remains dominated by sell signals, with 8 sell signals versus 5 buy signals, suggesting the possibility of further near-term adjustments. If the price pulls back, the first support level is at 62.9 yuan; if it breaks below that, it may test the 61 yuan level.

3. Tencent (00700.HK): With the share price falling below 600 yuan, is this a good time to invest? Some investors in the warrant market, observing the heavy volume decline, have added positions in put warrants with a strike price of 539.9 yuan.

Simon: The second stock we look at is Tencent (700). On January 22, the stock continued its recent downward trend, showing weakness. Though the daily decline was not significant, trading volume notably increased compared to previous sessions, which raises caution about the price drop accompanied by rising volume. Currently, the stock has fallen below the key psychological level of 600 yuan, closing at 597.5 yuan.

Investors are widely watching to see if this is a good buying opportunity. In the warrant market, some investors, based on the heavy volume decline signal, continue deploying put warrants. From the perspective of technical analysis data, short-term technical signals are slightly positive, showing 8 buy signals against 6 sell signals, indicating some potential for a technical rebound. However, if the stock price continues to decline, attention should be paid to the support near 582 yuan, close to the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart; if broken, it could drop to 565 yuan. Even though technical signals are leaning bullish, it’s still recommended to observe whether the stock price can stabilize before making a decision.

Regarding put warrant selection, there are some short-term products with a strike price of approximately 570 yuan, out-of-the-money by nearly 5%, but their expiration dates are concentrated in March this year, leading to high time decay, so they are not recommended. For those who are bearish on the stock, consider products expiring in June this year with an out-of-the-money level of about 6.9%. These products offer leverage of around 8 times, with relatively reasonable implied volatility and less impact from time decay.

4. Alibaba-W (09988.HK): Is there a chance for the stock price to retreat to 155 yuan? Some investors hold put warrants with a strike price of 149.78 yuan.

Simon: The next stock is Alibaba (9988). The stock's movement has been relatively stable. After yesterday’s recovery, it consolidated narrowly around 165 yuan on the 22nd, closing at 164.8 yuan.

Some investors worry that the stock price may fall back to the 155 yuan level and have expressed bearish views by holding put warrants. The overall technical signal summary currently stands as 'neutral.' If the stock price corrects, the nearest support is at 156.3 yuan, close to the 155 yuan area of investor concern. For put warrant selection, it is similarly advisable to avoid products with too near an expiration date; consider terms expiring in June or September this year with an out-of-the-money level of about 6%. These products suffer from lower time decay and provide leverage of about 4.6 times.

5. Pop Mart (09992.HK): Investors are paying attention to whether the stock price will stabilize above 205 yuan and look towards 230 yuan. Should they choose call warrants or bull contracts?

Simon: Next, we analyze Pop Mart (09992). The stock performed well on January 22, closing higher at 206 yuan, approaching the top of the Bollinger Band at 207.8 yuan.

If investors believe that after stabilizing above 205 yuan, the stock price might test 230 yuan, they need to select products according to their investment horizon. Currently, there are fewer call warrant options with a strike price of 230 yuan, with only one product expiring in August. By comparison, there are more bull warrant choices available, such as products with stop-loss prices at 173 yuan and 160 yuan, offering leverage of around 4.9-5 times. Short-term support for the stock lies at 190 yuan; if broken, it could drop to 185 yuan. Bull warrants with stop-loss levels around 170 yuan still have room before hitting that mark, keeping risk relatively manageable. If investors can accept the related stop-loss risks, bull warrants may offer better terms and leverage advantages.

6. China Unicom (00762.HK): The stock price has fallen for 11 consecutive weeks, is a rebound opportunity approaching?

Simon: Finally, let's take a look at China Unicom (762). Recently, the stock has shown weak momentum, with prices rebounding multiple times to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands before falling again, remaining in a downward channel. Although the stock price slightly rebounded on January 22, it remains weak overall.

Investors are watching whether there will be a rebound opportunity after the continuous decline. From a technical indicator perspective, the stock price has touched the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, and the RSI has recovered to above 20, presenting a 'strong buy' signal. From the perspective of short-term rebounds, certain technical conditions are met. However, it should be noted that the stock is still in a long-term downtrend, and betting against the trend requires careful risk assessment. Regarding support levels, the key level to watch is 7.42 yuan; if it breaks below this, it may test 7.21 yuan. Investors considering taking a position need to strictly control their exposure and set stop-loss orders.

The above is the review and analysis of Hong Kong stocks on January 22. Thank you for watching. We will continue to update the market dynamics at the same time tomorrow. If you have any questions, feel free to leave comments for discussion.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis represents only partial conditions and should be used in conjunction with other materials for a comprehensive evaluation; trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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