Inflation heats up, central banks turn hawkish! Is the wind changing for gold prices?
Short-term Trend of Zijin Mining from [BOC Guest]: The Interplay of Gold Price Support and Overbought Correction
Against the macro backdrop of a global resource price reassessment and heightened demand for safe-haven assets, Zijin Mining, a global mining leader with dual exposure to gold and copper, has maintained strong performance at high levels after breaking through the RMB trillion market cap milestone at the end of 2025. Entering 2026, as international gold prices have risen further to around RMB 4,700 per ounce, the company’s stock price surged another 2.35% on January 21, closing at RMB 40.92, supported by robust earnings expectations. However, with the stock price nearing key technical resistance levels, some short-term indicators are showing overbought signals, placing the market at a juncture between long-term trends and short-term technical adjustment pressures.
[BOC Guest] In-depth Analysis: The Logic Behind Gold Prices and the Era's Opportunities for Resource Stocks
In the latest January 20 episode of [BOC Guest], Niki, Director of BOC International, shared a positive outlook on the resources sector, particularly Zijin Mining. Niki noted that since last year, the program had been consistently reminding investors to watch for the strong comeback of gold. The current international gold price surpassing RMB 4,700/gram is an extension of this trend. She recalled that when gold prices fell near RMB 4,000/gram last year, she flagged it as a good “entry point,” predicting that international gold prices would continue to rise steadily.
Niki further analyzed the fundamental drivers behind gold prices and related stocks. She argued that the surge in safe-haven demand due to changing market conditions is the core logic supporting the medium- to long-term strength of gold prices. Entering 2026, dynamics within the resource sector will likely continue to push up resource prices, making precious metals a critical choice for safe-haven asset allocation. Therefore, her view on precious metal-related stocks such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold remains “relatively positive” for this year.
Niki believes that holding physical gold and silver may face issues such as oxidation, storage, and inconvenience in liquidation. She points out that investing in related stocks or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is a more convenient and efficient choice. For investors who wish to further enhance capital efficiency, she specifically recommends considering the use of related call warrants. For example, she mentioned Zijin Mining call warrant 21590. $BIZIJIN@EC2604B.C (21590.HK)$ With a strike price of 48.6 yuan, expiring in mid-April this year, it offers about 7 times leverage, serving as one of the tool options for participating in the market trend.
![Against the macro backdrop of a global resource price reassessment and heightened demand for safe-haven assets, Zijin Mining, a global mining leader with dual exposure to gold and copper, has maintained strong performance at high levels after breaking through the RMB trillion market cap milestone at the end of 2025. Entering 2026, as international gold prices have risen further to around RMB 4,700 per ounce, the company’s stock price surged another 2.35% on January 21, closing at RMB 40.92, supported by robust earnings expectations. However, with the stock price nearing key technical resistance levels, some short-term indicators are showing overbought signals, placing the market at a juncture between long-term trends and short-term technical adjustment pressures. [Share Link: January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea] [BOC Guest] In-depth Analysis: The Logic Behind Gold Prices and the Era's Opportunities for Resource Stocks In the latest January 20 episode of [BOC Guest], Niki, Director of BOC International, shared a positive outlook on the resources sector, particularly Zijin Mining. Niki noted that since last year, the program had been consistently reminding investors to watch for the strong comeback of gold. The current international gold price surpassing RMB 4,700/gram is an extension of this trend. She recalled that when gold prices fell near RMB 4,000/gram last year, she flagged it as a good “entry point,” predicting that international gold prices would continue to rise steadily. Niki further analyzed the fundamental drivers behind gold prices and related stocks. She argued that the surge in safe-haven demand due to changing market conditions...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260121/web-1768980361548-FnO5nQUYh1.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Technical Perspective: Key Resistance and Overbought Signals in a Strong Trend
According to data as of January 21, the stock price of Zijin Mining is trading within a clear uptrend channel, with key technical levels becoming the focus of market attention. Currently, the first resistance level above is at 41.9 yuan, and the second resistance level is at 44.5 yuan. The support below is also strong, with the first support level at 38.1 yuan and the second support level at 35.5 yuan. This technical range aligns roughly with previous market analysis suggesting that after breaking through 41.5 yuan, the stock price could challenge 44.9 yuan, indicating that this area is crucial for the comparison of bullish and bearish forces.
A technical phenomenon that investors should pay close attention to is that while the overall trend is positive, short-term momentum indicators have shown divergence. Data shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a moderately high position of 65, with stochastic oscillators and Williams %R both indicating an overbought condition. This coexistence of a bullish arrangement in medium- and long-term moving averages (such as MA30: 36.33 yuan, MA60: 34.13 yuan) and overbought short-term indicators reveals the intense tug-of-war between strong trend buying and short-term profit-taking selling pressure. As Investing.com's technical summary has also pointed out, Zijin Mining’s technical rating is 'Buy,' but some volatility indicators have indeed signaled overbought risks. This contradictory state suggests that when the stock price challenges higher resistance levels, volatility may significantly increase.
![Against the macro backdrop of a global resource price reassessment and heightened demand for safe-haven assets, Zijin Mining, a global mining leader with dual exposure to gold and copper, has maintained strong performance at high levels after breaking through the RMB trillion market cap milestone at the end of 2025. Entering 2026, as international gold prices have risen further to around RMB 4,700 per ounce, the company’s stock price surged another 2.35% on January 21, closing at RMB 40.92, supported by robust earnings expectations. However, with the stock price nearing key technical resistance levels, some short-term indicators are showing overbought signals, placing the market at a juncture between long-term trends and short-term technical adjustment pressures. [Share Link: January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea] [BOC Guest] In-depth Analysis: The Logic Behind Gold Prices and the Era's Opportunities for Resource Stocks In the latest January 20 episode of [BOC Guest], Niki, Director of BOC International, shared a positive outlook on the resources sector, particularly Zijin Mining. Niki noted that since last year, the program had been consistently reminding investors to watch for the strong comeback of gold. The current international gold price surpassing RMB 4,700/gram is an extension of this trend. She recalled that when gold prices fell near RMB 4,000/gram last year, she flagged it as a good “entry point,” predicting that international gold prices would continue to rise steadily. Niki further analyzed the fundamental drivers behind gold prices and related stocks. She argued that the surge in safe-haven demand due to changing market conditions...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260121/web-1768980211104-rCGgDST0C6.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Review of Warrant Products: Empirical Evidence of Leverage Effects in Trending Markets
Reviewing the Zijin-related bullish products mentioned on January 19, their performance over the following two trading days provides a vivid case study. At that time, the underlying stock rose cumulatively by 3.10%, and thanks to their inherent leverage, the related derivative products achieved gains far exceeding those of the underlying stock: Societe Generale bull certificate (67718) $SG#ZIJINRC2609I.C (67718.HK)$ Price surged 26%, J.P. Morgan bull certificate (68648) $JP#ZIJINRC2611D.C (68648.HK)$ Rose 20%, Citi call warrant (22889) rose 17%, BNP Paribas call warrant (23074) rose 11%.
![Against the macro backdrop of a global resource price reassessment and heightened demand for safe-haven assets, Zijin Mining, a global mining leader with dual exposure to gold and copper, has maintained strong performance at high levels after breaking through the RMB trillion market cap milestone at the end of 2025. Entering 2026, as international gold prices have risen further to around RMB 4,700 per ounce, the company’s stock price surged another 2.35% on January 21, closing at RMB 40.92, supported by robust earnings expectations. However, with the stock price nearing key technical resistance levels, some short-term indicators are showing overbought signals, placing the market at a juncture between long-term trends and short-term technical adjustment pressures. [Share Link: January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea] [BOC Guest] In-depth Analysis: The Logic Behind Gold Prices and the Era's Opportunities for Resource Stocks In the latest January 20 episode of [BOC Guest], Niki, Director of BOC International, shared a positive outlook on the resources sector, particularly Zijin Mining. Niki noted that since last year, the program had been consistently reminding investors to watch for the strong comeback of gold. The current international gold price surpassing RMB 4,700/gram is an extension of this trend. She recalled that when gold prices fell near RMB 4,000/gram last year, she flagged it as a good “entry point,” predicting that international gold prices would continue to rise steadily. Niki further analyzed the fundamental drivers behind gold prices and related stocks. She argued that the surge in safe-haven demand due to changing market conditions...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260121/web-1768980258531-jaOIbZwrDx.png/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Product Strategy Selection Under Current Market Conditions
For investors who agree with Niki, a director at BOC International, on her mid- to long-term positive outlook and believe that the stock price could break through the first resistance level at 41.9 yuan after consolidation and head towards 44.5 yuan or even higher targets, they may consider call warrants with strike prices set at higher target levels. For example, Huatai Call Warrant (21437) and Guojun Call Warrant (24195) have strike prices set at 48 yuan and 48.02 yuan, respectively, both significantly higher than the second resistance level at 44.5 yuan, qualifying as deep out-of-the-money warrants offering approximately 5.5x and 5.6x actual leverage. These products are suitable for betting on strong trending upward movements in stock prices. Among them, the Huatai Call Warrant, due to its characteristics of 'lowest premium and implied volatility,' theoretically might track the underlying stock's rise more efficiently. On the other hand, if investors are optimistic about the trend but concerned about short-term fluctuations, they can opt for bull contracts with wider buffer zones for recovery prices. The recovery prices for BOC Bull Contract (66030) and HSBC Bull Contract (65598) are both set at 35 yuan, around 14% away from the current stock price and below the key second support level at 35.5 yuan, providing a relatively strong margin of safety against normal technical pullbacks. Both offer approximately 6.1x actual leverage.
Investors who anticipate that short-term overbought pressure needs to be released and that the stock price might first pull back to test support levels at 38.1 yuan or even 35.5 yuan can focus on bearish instruments. Morgan Stanley Bear Contract (55128) has a recovery price set slightly above the second resistance level at 45 yuan, providing 7.6x actual leverage.
![Against the macro backdrop of a global resource price reassessment and heightened demand for safe-haven assets, Zijin Mining, a global mining leader with dual exposure to gold and copper, has maintained strong performance at high levels after breaking through the RMB trillion market cap milestone at the end of 2025. Entering 2026, as international gold prices have risen further to around RMB 4,700 per ounce, the company’s stock price surged another 2.35% on January 21, closing at RMB 40.92, supported by robust earnings expectations. However, with the stock price nearing key technical resistance levels, some short-term indicators are showing overbought signals, placing the market at a juncture between long-term trends and short-term technical adjustment pressures. [Share Link: January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea] [BOC Guest] In-depth Analysis: The Logic Behind Gold Prices and the Era's Opportunities for Resource Stocks In the latest January 20 episode of [BOC Guest], Niki, Director of BOC International, shared a positive outlook on the resources sector, particularly Zijin Mining. Niki noted that since last year, the program had been consistently reminding investors to watch for the strong comeback of gold. The current international gold price surpassing RMB 4,700/gram is an extension of this trend. She recalled that when gold prices fell near RMB 4,000/gram last year, she flagged it as a good “entry point,” predicting that international gold prices would continue to rise steadily. Niki further analyzed the fundamental drivers behind gold prices and related stocks. She argued that the surge in safe-haven demand due to changing market conditions...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/1162342/20260121/web-1768980265311-CO4sRCGgSw.jpeg/big?area=1&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Overall, Zijin Mining is at the intersection of macro positives, strong earnings, and key technical considerations. Investors can refer to [BOC Guest Appearance] insights into the medium- to long-term logic of gold and resource sectors and combine it with analysis of technical rhythms to implement refined strategies using different terms of warrants and bull/bear contracts. The key lies in correlating the assessment of product strike prices and recovery prices with key support and resistance levels in technical analysis, fully understanding the double-edged sword nature of high leverage, and managing risks effectively.
Interactive Questions:Interactive Question: Driven by the dual factors of rising international gold prices and impressive company performance, do you think Zijin Mining's stock price will first digest short-term overbought pressure and consolidate support at the 38.1 yuan level, or will it break through the key resistance at 41.9 yuan with strong momentum?
Feel free to share your insights in the comments section. For more detailed explanations of terms related to Hong Kong stock warrants and bull/bear contracts, as well as market dynamics analysis, please follow @HongKongStockWarrantsJenny.
#Zijin Mining #Technical Analysis #Support and Resistance Levels #Warrants #Bull and Bear Certificates #Gold Prices #Resource Stocks #Hong Kong Stock Deployment #Derivative Product Strategies #Capital Efficiency
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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