January 20th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Xiaomi, SMIC, Pop Mart, Zijin Mining, Li Ning, Midea

Simon: Hello, Niki!So today (the 20th), let’s start by discussing the situation in the Hong Kong stock market. As you can see, Hong Kong stocks have actually been retreating over the past two days, and they continued to decline a bit today (the 20th). What’s the sentiment and atmosphere among investors in the market?

Director Niki of BOC International: Actually, looking at the index, it has already fallen to around 26,300 points today (the 20th). Everyone can also notice that after reaching 27,000 points, it dropped back down again in just a few days. So overall, the market hasn’t been able to sustain a continuous upward trend. At the 27,000-point level, it still needs some time to consolidate. And for the previous upward movement, we believe it will need to stabilize around 26,400 points. If this level can hold, that would be good. But if it doesn’t hold or the market weakens further, the index could fall back to 25,800 points. Some may ask, where does the 25,800-point level come from? Is it just made up out of thin air? In fact, I recommend everyone visit our BOC International website, the URL isbocifp.comOn this website, there is an important data column that is highly worth referencing, which is the Hang Seng Index bull and bear certificate street-level distribution chart.

We basically update this chart twice a day. The 25,800-point level I just mentioned is actually the heavy accumulation zone for HSI bull certificates. Today (the 20th), it has already touched the 26,400-point heavy accumulation zone, and the corresponding bull certificates have been called back. The next critical level is 25,800 points, where there is the highest concentration of street-level positions. So everyone should be cautious; today’s (20th) low has already reached around 26,300 points. If the 26,000-point level can't hold, it might go down to 25,800 points, which is also the second key position in the HSI bull certificate heavy accumulation area, with the first checkpoint already being called back. As for the bear certificates, I will briefly mention that they are mainly concentrated at the 27,500-point level, where there are over 1,000 index futures contracts. Therefore, for now, when the HSI retreats to the 26,500-point level, some support may emerge, and this position may take some time to digest. Overall, the market sentiment remains unclear due to uncertainties related to interest rate hikes. For this round, you can refer to the range between 25,800 points and 27,500 points for investment deployment.

In terms of indices, we can see investors mostly taking advantage of the market's downtrend these two days. Because naturally, when the market falls from a high to a low level, people tend to buy long positions, betting on a market rebound. Over the past five trading days, nearly 50 million dollars have flowed into HSI bull certificates. And in the last trading day, there was also about 20 million flowing into short positions, meaning funds related to bear certificates were exiting. For now, the market still appears to be in a tug-of-war state without a clear one-sided trend.

For instance, regarding bull certificates, more aggressive investors might choose the HSI bull certificate 68825, which has a call-back price at 26,250 points. Since it is close to the call-back price, its leverage is relatively high. If one prefers a further call-back price, around the 26,000-point level, there is 68835.$BI#HSI RC28084.C (68835.HK)$This bull certificate has a call-back price at 26,095 points and offers a leverage of approximately 50 times. As for bear certificates, one can refer to 56147.$BI#HSI RP2803C.P (56147.HK)$This one has a call-back price at 26,850 points and provides leverage of around 60 times.

Simon: Returning to the previous topic, the Hang Seng Index bull and bear certificate distribution chart on the BOC International website is very clear, showing the distribution and statistics of different price levels, allowing everyone to understand the relevant information clearly. The heavy accumulation zone for bull certificates mentioned earlier is around 25,800 points, which is very close to the support level we calculated, currently at about 25,900 points. Therefore, investors are smart to have placed more positions just below the support level. Of course, this data is provided for reference only and can help offer another perspective for analyzing the market. For the most accurate product distribution or latest product information, as previously mentioned, you can visit BOCIFP.com to check the latest product updates.

Simon:Simon: Next, let’s talk about individual stocks. First, we might discuss Xiaomi Group (01810), a stock that has recently given investors both hope and disappointment. Today (20th), its stock price fell to a low of 35.6 yuan, and its performance has been relatively weak during this period. What is the attitude of investors in the warrant market?

BOC International Director Niki: That's right. Xiaomi's performance last year could be described as outstanding, starting from the twenties and reaching almost 60 yuan at its peak. However, since around October last year, the stock began to fall from its highs. It had touched a low of 36.62 yuan on November 20th last year, and today (20th), it has broken below that level, reaching as low as near 35 yuan. So, everyone is asking what happened to Xiaomi, and whether it is still a good time to invest. In the afternoon, news came out that two incidents involving Xiaomi Auto occurred on the same day, drawing renewed attention to the safety of Xiaomi Auto. Such news naturally affects Xiaomi's stock price.

However, everyone may have forgotten that the last time Xiaomi's stock price fell to 36.62 yuan, the management, Lei Jun, and Xiaomi itself spent 200 million in cash on buybacks. But this time, with the stock price breaking below the support level twice, the decline has indeed caught investors' attention and concern. Therefore, in this round, we can still see capital flowing. Some investors who previously bought at around thirty yuan, saw it rise to sixty yuan, and now it has fallen back to the thirty-yuan range, are starting to consider whether this is a good opportunity for long-term entry. However, since the stock price has broken below the support level, people are uncertain and lack confidence in a rebound of the underlying stock. Thus, when considering investing in the underlying stock for a rebound, there is some hesitation due to risk factors. At this time, investors can consider Xiaomi's call warrants, which can be purchased for a few hundred to a thousand yuan to bet on a rebound. If the underlying stock stabilizes and rebounds from this position, investors can continue to add positions because the rebound might persist. However, if the stock price unfortunately continues to fall, the loss would only be a few hundred to a thousand yuan as an entry fee, much lower compared to directly investing in the stock. In fact, starting from yesterday, there has already been continuous inflow of funds into Xiaomi's bullish products. There are some terms on the market, such as call warrants with a strike price above 55 yuan expiring in August or September this year, which some investors have already purchased. But I suggest that these terms are too far out-of-the-money; if the stock price continues to fall, the risks for these call warrants will be relatively high. Today (20th), let me introduce a Xiaomi call warrant – 22709.$BIXIAMI@EC2606C.C (22709.HK)$, its exercise price is 48 yuan, not as far out-of-the-money as 55 yuan, and it has a shorter term, expiring at the end of June this year. The leverage is very attractive, nearly reaching about 7 times. Of course, some investors might think that Xiaomi has just started to fall and may continue to drop, so they might want to choose Xiaomi’s put warrants as a hedging tool. For Xiaomi's put warrants, you can refer to 22168.$BIXIAMI@EP2606C.P (22168.HK)$This one has an exercise price of 32.18 yuan, expiring at the end of June this year, with leverage of about 5 times.

Simon: From a short-term perspective, Xiaomi’s technical signal summary shows 'Strong Buy,' indicating a more optimistic view on Xiaomi's rebound. This is why, based on the CBBC fund flow data, we can see some investors slowly buying call warrants, providing some reference data. However, some might ask, for stocks like Xiaomi, BOC International has introduced many related products, and the data for these products changes daily according to market conditions. Is there any other way to get instant access to the latest terms besides going online?

BOC International Director Niki: If, like today (20th), the stock price suddenly drops to a new yearly low, and you want to instantly obtain the latest terms without spending time online entering information, the fastest method is to call us. Our CBBC hotline is: 00+852 3988 690. After dialing, you can follow the prompts to communicate with our customer service team. This channel is very convenient and fast. Additionally, if you have specific needs, such as wanting to bet on Tencent’s rebound today (20th) but not too aggressively, preferring some stable terms, you can inform our colleagues of your requirements, and we will provide relevant terms and products for investors’ reference. You can also proactively contact us; our colleagues are all very friendly and helpful.$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Simon: So now, during trading hours, if you have any inquiries or questions related to the products, feel free to call BOC International’s hotline and communicate with Niki and her team for more information.

Simon: So now, if anyone has any product-related inquiries or questions during market hours, you are welcome to call the hotline of Bank of China International and communicate with Niki and her team for understanding.

Simon:Simon: Next, let's talk about another stock. Today (20th), I'd like to say more about SMIC (00981), related to chips. Its stock performance may disappoint some investors, with the lowest point almost falling near the middle line of the daily chart. In the CBBC market, what are the fund flows and investor attitudes like?

BOC International Director Niki: If you’ve been following SMIC (00981), you know that its overall performance last year was very impressive, with its gains and trends repeatedly hitting new highs. However, this year, its performance hasn’t been particularly weak nor exceptionally strong, with the past two days showing a pattern of consolidation after a high. The stock price had previously risen as high as 94 yuan before retreating to around 34 yuan. Actually, as mentioned earlier, the market will continue to support the development of the high-tech chip industry. Last year, companies like SMIC (981) and Huahong underwent internal and external mergers and acquisitions, continuously strengthening their overall production ecosystem. So, although the stock price has indeed been correcting recently, we can still see that investors are actively entering the market, buying call warrants and bull contracts to bet on a rebound of the underlying stock.

As mentioned before on the show, the leverage for warrant products related to SMIC and other chip stocks is around 2 to 4 times. However, recently, BOC International has received inquiries from some investors hoping for products with higher leverage. Since the price of the previous products was mostly in the range of two to three cents, with leverage of only two to three times, their attractiveness was insufficient. In response to this, BOC International has launched a new product during this period — SMIC's Bull Certificate 65935, which everyone can find on our homepage. The most important aspect of Bull and Bear Certificates is the call price. This bull certificate’s call price is 71.3 yuan, while SMIC’s current stock price is around 74.6 yuan, leaving a buffer of about 3 yuan. In other words, if the underlying stock does not drop to 71.3 yuan in the short-term fluctuations, this tool could be an option for betting on a rebound. Moreover, its leverage is quite surprising, reaching approximately 15 times, expiring in December this year. So, for investors who prefer high leverage and wish to take advantage of the recent consecutive drops in stock price to bet on a rebound, SMIC's Bull Certificate 65935$BI#SMIC RC2612A.C (65935.HK)$is a noteworthy choice.

Simon: Actually, BOC International offers a variety of products related to SMIC’s warrants and bull certificates for everyone to choose from. As Niki just mentioned, if anyone feels that the terms of products related to a certain underlying stock need further discussion with BOC International, they can call BOC International's team, who are always happy to listen to investors' feedback. For instance, if we find that the leverage of a warrant is less attractive than that of a bull certificate, we will also consider everyone’s opinions and study whether to launch relevant Bull/Bear products. We hope that BOC International can roll out more products for different individual stocks, meeting investors' diverse needs.

Simon:Simon: Next, let’s look at another stock and talk about Pop Mart (09992). We’ve discussed it quite a bit before; recently, its share price has rebounded somewhat. Is it possible for it to return to the level of around 200 yuan? Will investors actively buy related warrants again?

Niki, Director of BOC International: Pop Mart's share price has actually been sluggish for a while. Previously, the stock price was above 300 yuan, but later it fell below 200 yuan, hitting a low of over 170 yuan. Therefore, investors have been paying attention to this stock for a long time, waiting for an entry opportunity. Yesterday, there was good news: Pop Mart's management conducted their first buyback in two years, spending approximately 250 million yuan. This buyback can be seen as a positive sign from the management regarding the company’s future prospects, since it involves real money to support the stock price. Additionally, some popular IP products by Pop Mart, along with collaborations involving mobile products, are seeing new developments, with new products being introduced to the market. Overall, the market's expectations for Pop Mart are relatively positive. Although the broader Hong Kong stock market is showing a gradual downward trend, Pop Mart's stock performance has been eye-catching. Thus, upon seeing these positive signals, investors’ confidence in purchasing related products to bet on a rebound has increased. Whether buying CBBCs or Warrants, timing the entry point is crucial. If the likelihood of a stock rebounding outweighs the likelihood of it falling, then it’s a good entry point.

And today (the 20th), Pop Mart experienced such a situation. If you’re considering Pop Mart's warrants, you might refer to Product 23339,$BIPOMRT@EC2605A.C (23339.HK)$which has a strike price of 240.12 yuan and expires in May this year, with leverage of around 5 times. As for put warrants, currently, most people still prefer betting on rebounds, so it may be worth considering later whether to allocate based on subsequent conditions.

Simon: To be honest, from a technical analysis perspective, the current state is 'neutral,' meaning there is no clear direction in the short term, so some investors may focus on call warrants while others may pay attention to put warrants. So, as I said before, if you want to keep up with the latest product information amid short-term market movements, you might frequently visit BOC International's website or call the Warrant hotline at 39886909 for the latest updates.

Simon:Next, let's talk about the next sector — the resources sector, such as Zijin Mining (02899), Jiangxi Copper (00358), etc. What is the sentiment of investors towards this sector recently?

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Niki, Director of BOC International: In fact, since last year, everyone has already noticed the strong comeback of gold prices. We've also reminded our audience from time to time to pay attention to the gold price and consider it a good investment. Besides gold, prices of other precious metals like silver have also been at historical highs or are constantly hitting multi-year records. I even had friends asking if I could help them buy a bar of silver from the bank because they said it was hard to find in many places on the mainland. Actually, buying a bar of silver to keep at home is possible, but metal products can oxidize, which might cause some trouble. So instead of holding physical gold or silver, there are better ways, such as investing in related stocks or ETFs. These instruments are more convenient to trade, making it quicker to cash out without having to queue at the bank or worry about storage or oxidation issues. Therefore, you may consider investing through these tools. As for capital, an easier way to enter the market is to refer to the trend of gold prices. Today (the 20th), international gold prices have broken through 4700 yuan per gram, just as we previously expected that international gold prices would continue to rise slowly. Remember, when gold prices fell close to 4000 yuan per gram last year, I reminded everyone that it was a great entry point, and currently, gold prices still look promising.

So regarding Zijin Mining, you can also look into related call warrants, leveraging the effect to earn leveraged returns with less capital. This is also a good asset allocation choice. For instance, Zijin Mining’s call warrant reference 21590.$BIZIJIN@EC2604B.C (21590.HK)$This one has an exercise price of 48.6 yuan, expiring mid-April, with leverage around 7 times.

December 11 [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Xiaomi Group, CCB

Simon: Regular listeners know that the gold-related sector is something we often mention. If sometimes you forget the relevant information, a quick way to get updated is to log in to BOC International's website. At the top of the homepage, you'll see daily featured stocks and news, allowing you to quickly browse the key stocks and related news.

Simon:Next, let’s discuss another sector — the domestic demand sector. On today's homepage (the 20th), stocks like Li Ning (02331) and Midea (00300) were mentioned. Can you share with us the current investment sentiment for domestic demand stocks?

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Niki, Director of BOC International: Actually, since last year, people have started paying attention to policies such as trade-in programs and consumer subsidies in mainland China. I believe by 2026, this will still be one of the main topics in the market. Therefore, investors are advised to continue focusing on these consumer stocks, especially well-known mainland brands, such as electrical appliance brands, consumer brands, and food and beverage brands. You may notice that whether it's market sentiment, companies' willingness to export, or manufacturers' preparations for exports, all suggest that the risks and costs associated with exports have relatively increased. Hence, it might be wiser to turn towards domestic demand, which we previously referred to as the internal circulation. When consumers shop or buy branded products across different provinces in China, they tend to favor local mainland brands. Overall, this trend will benefit well-known mainland consumer brands, including those we mentioned earlier, such as Li Ning, Midea, and Mengniu (02319).$MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK)$All of these are worth closely monitoring.

In terms of specific products, here are some references for you. For example, Li Ning’s call warrant reference 22219.$BILININ@EC2605B.C (22219.HK)$ The strike price is 23.33 yuan, expiring around mid-May this year, with a leverage of about 6 times. Currently, Li Ning's stock price is around twenty yuan. If the stock price can rise to around 23 yuan, this product will move from slightly out-of-the-money to in-the-money, and the explosive power of leverage will be stronger. So if you are optimistic about Li Ning’s future performance, this warrant is a good choice.

As for Midea, perhaps fewer people refer to related products, but BOC International also issues its warrants. Midea's stock code is 00300, corresponding to call warrant 21629. $BIMIDEA@EC2607A.C (21629.HK)$ The strike price is 108.98 yuan, about 25% higher than the current stock price, expiring at the end of July this year, with leverage of around 5 to 6 times. The price of this product is about 0.2 yuan, making the entry cost relatively moderate. Products priced at 0.2 to 0.3 yuan might seem a bit expensive, but with this product offering 5 to 6 times leverage at around 0.2 yuan, and with a relatively moderate term, it’s worth considering.

Simon: Everyone can see that the stock price of 2331 has actually performed well, not just in the past day or two. Since hitting a low point around December last year, it has been on an upward trend. We often mentioned the domestic demand sector last year. If investors want to know more related information, they can visit BOC International's website to search for product information and the latest news. BOC International continues to launch new products for different stocks, whether bull/bear certificates or warrants, there are many new choices. So if investors sometimes want instant advice on whether there are suitable products for a particular stock, or explore the possibility of launching related products, they are welcome to call the warrant hotline 39886909 and communicate with Niki’s team to learn the latest product information.

That’s all for today’s (20th) sharing. Thank you very much for Niki’s time, and we’ll talk to Niki again next week about the latest market conditions. Bye for now, see you next time.

This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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