Hong Kong Stock Podcast Observation: How to interpret the key support at 94.8 for BYD's technicals?

Hong Kong Stock Podcast Observation: After breaking through 100, how to interpret the key support at 94.8 in BYD's technical correction?

As of January 20, 2026, the share price of BYD (01211.HK) after successfully breaking through the psychological barrier of 100, stood at 97.10 yuan as of 15:25, with a decline of 3.57%.

Technical Analysis: Consolidation Needs and Key Areas After Breaking Through the 100-Yuan Mark

From the technical chart perspective, BYD's share price successfully closed above 100.07 yuan on January 19, achieving a breakthrough from the prolonged consolidation in the 90-yuan range. This is a positive technical signal, validating the strength of market buying at key levels. The moving average system shows a short-term interwoven state: the share price is currently slightly above the 10-day (approximately 97.21 yuan) and 30-day (approximately 96.66 yuan) moving averages but slightly below the 60-day (approximately 97.95 yuan) moving average, indicating that the mid-term trend is still in the process of repair and confirmation. This pattern aligns completely with observations from the [Hong Kong Stock Podcast], where after the breakout, the share price has touched the upper Bollinger Band. Going forward, it will likely “consolidate near the top of the band or continue to rise along the upper band,” while cautioning for potential technical pullbacks.

January 19 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, BYD, Baidu Group, HSBC

Several oscillation indicators also confirm this unclear short-term direction, necessitating consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55 in the neutral zone, showing that market sentiment is neither overbought nor oversold. Multiple oscillation indicator signals sum up as “neutral,” while momentum oscillators and rate-of-change indicators issue “sell” signals, suggesting that upward momentum may temporarily weaken. Therefore, clear key price levels become crucial in determining the next short-term move.

Below, the primary support level is at 94.8 yuan, near the intersection of the 10-day and 30-day moving averages, serving as the first retest defense point after the breakout. If this level fails, the correction could deepen to a stronger support at 91.5 yuan. Above, the immediate resistance level is at 101.3 yuan, which closely matches the intraday high of 101 yuan on January 20. If this can be effectively breached, the next target would be 104.5 yuan, a key intermediate step toward the medium-term target of 108.8 yuan mentioned in the [Hong Kong Stock Podcast].

Review of Warrants Products and Strategic Value of Derivatives

Looking back at the recent performance of the derivatives market, it’s clear how leveraged tools enhance capital efficiency when the underlying stock shows a clear trend. For instance, regarding the two sets of products mentioned on January 15, amid BYD's underlying stock rising by 1.61% over the following two trading days, related derivatives recorded significantly higher gains. The bullish HSBC Bull Certificate (54973) $HS#BYD RC2608G.C (54973.HK)$ and UBS Group Bull Certificate (64134) $UB#BYD RC2607V.C (64134.HK)$ rose by 17% and 16%, respectively; while the HSBC Call Warrant (23658) and UBS Group Call Warrant (23812) increased by 7% and 9%, respectively.

Analysis of Derivative Tool Terms and Deployment Strategies Under Current Market Conditions

Analysis of Warrant Products:

For investors who believe the share price will continue its upward trajectory after a pullback, they may focus on call warrants with strike prices set outside the upper resistance zones and longer expiration dates. For example, UBS Group Call Warrant (22495) and Bank of China Call Warrant (22525), both with a strike price of 116.98 yuan. This price is far above the second resistance level of 104.5 yuan, indicating that these products are not meant for small rebounds but are positioned for long-term bullish strategies strongly favoring BYD breaking through all current resistances to unlock significant upside potential. Selecting such deep out-of-the-money warrants must be paired with longer remaining durations to withstand rapid time decay. For investors who think the share price might retreat below the support level, they may consider put warrants with a strike price of 81.83 yuan (e.g., UBS Group 22314 $UB-BYD @EP2608A.P (22314.HK)$ , Bank of China 22386). $BI-BYD @EP2608A.P (22386.HK)$ ). This strike price is below the second support level of 91.5 yuan, making it deep out-of-the-money. It is only suitable for hedging against unexpected sharp declines in stock prices or expressing an extremely bearish view.

Bull and Bear Certificate Product Analysis:

For investors optimistic about the future market, when choosing bull certificates, the recovery price should be significantly below key technical support levels. For example, J.P. Morgan bull certificate (56959) $JP#BYD RC2608H.C (56959.HK)$ and UBS Group bull certificate (64134) have recovery prices of 94 yuan and 93 yuan respectively. These two prices are below the first support level of 94.8 yuan and close to the second support level of 91.5 yuan, providing a large buffer zone suitable for investors who believe that the 94.8 yuan support is strong and the stock price is unlikely to plummet. For investors who are bearish in the short term and believe that a rebound is unsustainable, when choosing bear certificates, the recovery price should be significantly above key technical resistance levels. HSBC bear certificate (60673) and J.P. Morgan bear certificate (59400) both have recovery prices set at 110 yuan. This price is not only higher than the first resistance level of 101.3 yuan but also higher than the second resistance level of 104.5 yuan, aiming to bet on the stock price rebounding to the 105-110 yuan range before losing momentum and turning to fall.

Interactive Questions

In light of BYD's current technical breakout consolidation and fundamental transformation challenges, how will your trading strategy balance these factors?

1. Do you believe in the validity of the hundred-yuan breakout? If the stock price retraces to the 94.8 yuan support area and stabilizes, would you use a similar UBS Group bull certificate (64134) with a recovery price of 93 yuan for a short-term rebound setup?

2. Or would you be more cautious, waiting for the stock price to break through the recent resistance of 101.3 yuan with increased volume, confirming the resumption of the uptrend, before choosing medium-to-long-term call warrants to follow up on the right side?

3. Alternatively, are you more focused on the challenges in fundamental profitability, believing that the rebound space is limited, and are considering using bear certificates near 110 yuan to capture possible high-level pullback opportunities?

Feel free to share your independent judgment and trading logic in the comment section. For more real-time analysis and in-depth interpretations of individual Hong Kong stocks and derivatives, please follow 'HK Warrants Jenny'.

This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

#BYD #01211 #TechnicalAnalysis #SupportAndResistance #Derivatives #BullBearContracts #ExpirationRisk #ElectricVehicles #ProfitTransformation #HKStocksPodcast

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

85K Views