Zijin Mining (01818.HK) Short-term Analysis: Technical Analysis and Derivatives Strategy Under the Gold Price Tailwind

$ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK)$ As of January 20, 2026, the share price trend of Zijin Mining (01818.HK) is at a crucial juncture. On one hand, it is strongly supported by gold prices hitting record highs, keeping sector sentiment high; on the other hand, the stock has accumulated significant gains in the short term, with technical indicators entering overheated zones, facing pressures of pullback and consolidation. This article will integrate the latest technical data, market news updates, and core perspectives from the [CICC Guest Column] to analyze its short-term dynamics and provide a prudent strategy for using derivatives while balancing 'riding the trend' with 'risk prevention'.

1. Technical Analysis: Overbought Warning and Key Levels Within a Strong Trend Channel

From the technical chart perspective, Zijin Mining’s share price has maintained a clear upward trend over the recent period, evident as the stock consistently trades above key moving averages such as the 10-day (around HKD 36.23), 30-day (around HKD 32.47), and 60-day (around HKD 30.83). This bullish alignment of moving averages forms the technical basis for a positive mid-term trend. However, the rapid rise in the short term has brought noticeable technical correction pressure. Currently, multiple critical indicators are issuing strong overbought warning signals. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 73, clearly entering the overbought zone. Momentum oscillation indicators further confirm the potential weakening of upward momentum through ‘sell’ signals, suggesting the need for technical repair.

Therefore, clear price ranges have become the core determinant for short-term direction. Below, the primary key support level lies at HKD 34.1, with the more important defense line located at HKD 31.7, which is the area connecting the 30-day and 60-day long-term moving averages, holding stronger technical significance. Above, the immediate resistance level is at HKD 38.9, a technical gateway near recent highs. If effectively broken, it could challenge the higher resistance level at HKD 41.6, which is also a key intermediate station toward CICC’s target price of HKD 44.78.

2. Consolidation of Market Perspectives: Leading Opportunities in the Gold Supercycle

The current market consensus on Zhaojin Mining strongly points to a long-term upward cycle driven by gold prices, echoing recent reports from major financial institutions in the 【BOC Guest】column.

In a recent research report, BOC International explicitly gave the Chinese gold industry an 'Overweight' rating and listed Zhaojin Mining as one of its top picks with a 'Buy' rating, setting a target price at HK$44.78. The core logic behind this optimistic view is that analysts believe ongoing global geopolitical tensions will continue to spur safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, the widely anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, creating dual upward pressure on prices.

Review: January 13th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, CSPC Pharma, Wuxi Bio, China Life

This professional institutional view was further brought to life and given a forward-looking interpretation in the 【BOC Guest】segment. Niki, Director at BOC International, reiterated her long-held stance during the January 13 program: 'The international gold price could rise to $5,000 per ounce; it has already reached $4,600 per ounce, very close to this target.' Based on this, Niki recommended that investors, amid uncertain environments, should allocate a portion of precious metals or commodities in their portfolios as a crucial hedge against risk.

January 6th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, CICC, Cathay Pacific Haitong, Li Ning

In an earlier program on January 6, Niki supplemented her analysis from another perspective, noting that investors tend to allocate funds into traditional 'safe havens' like gold when facing complex and volatile external conditions. Summarizing, she stated: 'All gold-related stocks and products deserve special and continuous attention.' This not only provides a rationale for investing in physical gold stocks but also opens up ideas for participating in the market through derivatives. Using Zijin Mining as an example, Niki explained that investors can use leveraged tools such as call warrants with minimal capital to achieve more significant returns—a strategy equally applicable to Zhaojin Mining.

III. Review of Warrants Products

Looking back at the performance of the derivatives market recently, it's clear that when correctly predicting the short-term direction of the underlying stock, derivatives can effectively amplify investment returns through their leverage characteristics. For instance, taking the two call warrants mentioned on January 15, amid the subsequent two trading days when the underlying stock rose by 2.60%, Huatai Call Warrant (21545) $HUZHJIN@EC2603A.C (21545.HK)$ and Maiyin Call Warrant (20266) $MBZHJIN@EC2603A.C (20266.HK)$ recorded increases of 11% and 13%, respectively.

4. Deployment Strategy for Derivatives under the Current Market Situation

Given the complex situation where the stock price is caught between 'long-term upward trends' and 'short-term technical overbought' conditions, deploying derivatives must involve precise alignment of product terms with key support and resistance levels while strictly adhering to risk control discipline.

Warrant (Call/Put) Product Analysis:

Investors who firmly believe in the long-term bullish logic of gold prices and expect share prices to rebound to new highs after short-term adjustments may consider call warrants with strike prices set near overhead resistance areas. For instance, Huatai Call Warrant (21545) and Maiyin Call Warrant (20266), both with strike prices around 41.8 yuan. This strike price is slightly above the first resistance level of 38.9 yuan but significantly below the second resistance level of 41.6 yuan and BOC International’s target price of 44.78 yuan. This relatively aggressive term design suits investors who anticipate the stock price not only digesting current overbought pressures but also quickly breaking through 38.9 yuan, advancing toward the 41-42 yuan range. It is important to note that if the stock price encounters resistance near 38.9 yuan and enters consolidation or correction, the time value of these out-of-the-money warrants will erode. $HUZHJIN@EC2603A.C (21545.HK)$$MBZHJIN@EC2603A.C (20266.HK)$$BIZHJIN@EC2606A.C (23618.HK)$$MSZHJIN@EC2606A.C (23633.HK)$

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