[Warrant Perspective] The support and resistance levels for the Hang Seng Index are clear, with the short-term neutral pattern remaining unchanged

Under pressure, the index closed at 26,563.9 points, down 1.05% on the day, with a 5-day volatility of 2.5%. The trading volume was 225.689 billion yuan, showing no significant expansion or contraction in liquidity. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI for the Hang Seng Index is 59, within the neutral range. Multiple oscillation indicators, including the RSI, Williams %R, and Stochastic Oscillator, provided neutral signals. Only a few indicators like the Psychological Line and Bollinger Bands indicated a slight bias towards buying, with an overall lack of clear directional guidance.

In terms of support and resistance, the Hang Seng Index's short-term support levels are at 26,032 points (Support 1) and 25,543 points (Support 2), while the resistance levels are at 27,015 points (Resistance 1) and 27,585 points (Resistance 2). Currently, the price is trading below the MA10 (26,633.97 points), with the MA30 (26,044.37 points) and MA60 (26,088.85 points) forming a lower support zone, indicating a clear oscillating pattern.

On January 19, only BYD shares among the blue chips recorded gains, while all others fell to varying degrees. Technical patterns showed significant divergence, which can be divided into three main groups:

(1) Oversold Rebound Group: Led by Xiaomi and Meituan

Xiaomi (01810) can be considered an 'oversold target' on the previous day (19th), closing at 36.48 yuan, with a single-day decline of 1.67%. The RSI is only at 31, indicating a deeply oversold condition. Although the stock price is below all short-term moving averages including MA10, MA30, and MA60, the technical summary signal strongly suggests a buy with an intensity of 11. Multiple indicators show signs of excessive decline and potential bottoming out, indicating a strong expectation for a short-term rebound.

Meituan (03690) also weakened, closing at 98.50 yuan, with a drop of 1.50%. The RSI of 44 enters the oversold zone, and the technical buy signal has an intensity of 8. Similarly trading below all moving averages, indicators suggest there may be a short-term corrective rebound; attention should be paid to whether the moving average resistance can be broken.

(2) Neutral Signal Group: Financials and HKEX Dominated

China Construction Bank (00939), AIA (01299), and three other stocks have all given neutral signals, showing relatively stable trends. Among them, China Construction Bank had the smallest decline (-0.38%), closing at 7.80 yuan, with its price above MA10 and MA30 but slightly below MA60. The RSI of 58 is close to neutral, indicating no clear direction in the indicators, making it suitable for observation and tracking.

Hong Kong Exchange (00388) closed at 431.80 yuan, with a drop of 1.51%. The stock price barely held steady above MA10, with an RSI of 61 leaning towards the strong region but not overbought. Market sentiment remains cautious, and in the short term, it is likely to move in line with fluctuations in the Hang Seng Index.

(3) Bearish Signal Group: HSBC and Alibaba Lead the Decline

HSBC Holdings (00005) showed the weakest technical signal, closing at 127.00 yuan, with a decline of 1.17%. The technical summary signal is a sell with an intensity of 10. The RSI of 66 enters the overbought zone, and although the stock price remains above all moving averages, some indicators suggest overbought pressure, warranting caution for potential pullback risks.

Alibaba (09988) experienced the largest drop (-3.49%), closing at 160.40 yuan, with a technical sell signal intensity of 8 and an RSI of 61. The stock price is below MA10 and MA30, and overall indicators lean towards a sell, suggesting that the short-term weak trend is difficult to reverse.

Product Review: Put Warrants and Bear Contracts Yielded Significant Profits

Derivative products related to the Hang Seng Index recommended for tracking on January 15 yielded significant returns two days later. Among them, the BOC bear certificate (57148) surged by up to 36%, the BOC put warrant (21317) rose by 16%, and the UBS Group put warrant (21347) increased by 14%. During the same period, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.34%, demonstrating how derivatives perfectly captured the market's downward movement with their leverage advantage.

Product Selection: Two Low-Volatility, High-Leverage Call Warrants

In line with the current neutral and volatile trading range of the Hang Seng Index, two high-value-for-money call warrants have been selected, suitable for investors expecting a short-term rebound in the Hang Seng Index:

1. BOC call warrant (21318): Leverage of 20 times, exercise price at 28,743 points. Its core advantage lies in having the lowest implied volatility, resulting in smaller fluctuation risks in volatile markets and higher leverage efficiency.

2. UBS Group call warrant (21343): With the same exercise price as (21318) at 28,743 points and the same 20 times leverage, implied volatility remains low. It complements the BOC product, allowing flexible selection based on market volatility.

Risk Warning: Leveraged products such as CBBCs and bull/bear contracts carry high leverage, posing higher risks. It is necessary to closely track the underlying stock's movement and expiration time to avoid blindly entering the market.

Do you think the oversold signals for Xiaomi and Meituan will quickly rebound? A. Yes B. No C. Watching. Among today’s blue chips, which individual stock’s subsequent technical performance are you most focused on? Feel free to leave a comment and share your thoughts!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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