Dongwu Securities: 25Q4 Sales Commentary: Continued Leading Performance, Super Store Expansion Exceeds Expectations

361 DEGREES wrote a column · Jan 19 03:37

The company released its 2025 Q4 operating data:1) Sales: Main brand offline/kids offline/e-commerce sales increased by approximately 10%/approximately 10%/high double digits year-on-year, continuing the performance from Q2-Q3. 2) Discounts: 7-7.1 fold, relatively stable. 3) Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio for 25Q4 was 4.5-5 times, remaining stable.

The rapid expansion of Super Stores continues, driving overall operational optimization and improvement, while e-commerce accelerates the layout of instant retail.By the end of Q4 2025, the number of Super Stores reached 126, adding 33 new stores compared to Q3, maintaining the rapid expansion trend. The total number of stores opened for the year exceeded the initial target of 100. The customer acquisition rate of Super Stores is 60-70%, which has significantly improved sell-through rates and add-on sales while reducing operating costs. Additionally, the company opened its first overseas Super Store in Cambodia, with a store area of 1,400 square meters, marking a new step for the main brand's international expansion. The company plans to continue opening Super Stores in 2026. On the e-commerce front, by the end of the year, the company's thousand stores were onboarded to Taobao Flash Purchase, enhancing the instant retail layout.

Continuously strengthening the technology product portfolio.In the running category, Q4 2025 saw the release of updated racing shoes 'Feiran 5' and 'Feiran 5 FUTURE', jogging series 'Supai FLOAT3' and 'Supai CQT3', and high-performance dual-density cushioning trail running shoes 'Lingci 1st Generation'. In the basketball category, the second-generation signature basketball shoes 'JOKER2' for Nikola Jokic debuted in the US in Q4 2025, along with Aaron Gordon’s sixth-generation signature basketball shoes 'AG6'. In the outdoor category, products like 'Yi Screen Windbreaker', 'URBAN冲锋衣', and 'Sufeng Shoes' were launched. For women's fitness, the 'Little Eggshell 1.0 Series' and 'New Muscle SE' were refreshed and relaunched. In the comprehensive training category, the 'ULTRA 极睿羽绒服' was introduced. In the children’s category, the lightweight outdoor shoe 'Journey 1.0' was released.

Earnings forecast and investment rating:Looking ahead to 2026, the company's order meetings for Q1 and Q2 showed steady growth performance, and management expressed confidence in revenue growth for 2026. We maintain our forecast for net profits attributable to shareholders at 1.3/1.46/1.62 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 8/8/7X, with low valuation, and reiterate our 'Buy' rating.

Risk Warning: Persistent weakness in domestic consumption and intensifying competition.

Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty. Read more