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Outlook falls short of expectations! Is Intel still worth holding onto?
牛牛Insights
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Are all eyes on Intel's turnaround? Don't focus solely on the earnings report figures—these three responses from management are the key

Author | Eric Global chip giant $Intel (INTC.US)$ will release its Q4 earnings report after market close this Thursday Eastern Time. The market is focused on updates from Intel’s management regarding the company’s outlook amid the recent debut of its 18A product and the hype around server CPU shortages. Consensus expectations for key Q4 financial metrics - Market consensus revenue estimate$13.4 billion, representing a year-on-year, down 6% year-over-year, with a 2% sequential decline; the company’s guidance range is $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion. - Market consensus GAAP gross margin estimate35.6%, representing a year-on-yearA decrease of 3.6 percentage points, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with company guidance at 34.5%; consensus expectations for Non-GAAP gross margin36.5%，A year-over-year drop of 5.6 percentage points, a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3.5 percentage points, with company guidance also at 36.5%. – Market consensus for GAAPNet loss of $6.6 billion, falling back into losses, Non-GAAP net profit$4.39 billion, representing a year-on-yearDown 23%, a sequential decline of 57%, with company guidance at $3.6 billion. Intel has had a relatively smooth run recently. Riding on rumors of server CPU shortages and expectations of a rebound in foundry operations, its stock price has surged. But sentiment aside, how solid are the fundamentals? This earnings report,management must directly address these three key questionsto sustain this rally. 1. Server CPU shortage: Is it real demand or just Wall Street's...
Author | Eric
Global chip giant $Intel (INTC.US)$ will release its Q4 earnings report after market close this Thursday Eastern Time. The market is focused on updates from Intel’s management regarding the company’s outlook amid the recent debut of its 18A product and the hype around server CPU shortages.
Consensus expectations for key Q4 financial metrics
- Market consensus revenue estimate$13.4 billion, representing a year-on-year, down 6% year-over-year, with a 2% sequential decline; the company’s guidance range is $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion.
- Market consensus GAAP gross margin estimate35.6%, representing a year-on-yearA decrease of 3.6 percentage points, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with company guidance at 34.5%; consensus expectations for Non-GAAP gross margin36.5%，A year-over-year drop of 5.6 percentage points, a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3.5 percentage points, with company guidance also at 36.5%.
– Market consensus for GAAPNet loss of $6.6 billion, falling back into losses, Non-GAAP net profit$4.39 billion, representing a year-on-yearDown 23%, a sequential decline of 57%, with company guidance at $3.6 billion.
Author | Eric Global chip giant $Intel (INTC.US)$ will release its Q4 earnings report after market close this Thursday Eastern Time. The market is focused on updates from Intel’s management regarding the company’s outlook amid the recent debut of its 18A product and the hype around server CPU shortages. Consensus expectations for key Q4 financial metrics - Market consensus revenue estimate$13.4 billion, representing a year-on-year, down 6% year-over-year, with a 2% sequential decline; the company’s guidance range is $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion. - Market consensus GAAP gross margin estimate35.6%, representing a year-on-yearA decrease of 3.6 percentage points, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with company guidance at 34.5%; consensus expectations for Non-GAAP gross margin36.5%，A year-over-year drop of 5.6 percentage points, a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3.5 percentage points, with company guidance also at 36.5%. – Market consensus for GAAPNet loss of $6.6 billion, falling back into losses, Non-GAAP net profit$4.39 billion, representing a year-on-yearDown 23%, a sequential decline of 57%, with company guidance at $3.6 billion. Intel has had a relatively smooth run recently. Riding on rumors of server CPU shortages and expectations of a rebound in foundry operations, its stock price has surged. But sentiment aside, how solid are the fundamentals? This earnings report,management must directly address these three key questionsto sustain this rally. 1. Server CPU shortage: Is it real demand or just Wall Street's...
Author | Eric Global chip giant $Intel (INTC.US)$ will release its Q4 earnings report after market close this Thursday Eastern Time. The market is focused on updates from Intel’s management regarding the company’s outlook amid the recent debut of its 18A product and the hype around server CPU shortages. Consensus expectations for key Q4 financial metrics - Market consensus revenue estimate$13.4 billion, representing a year-on-year, down 6% year-over-year, with a 2% sequential decline; the company’s guidance range is $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion. - Market consensus GAAP gross margin estimate35.6%, representing a year-on-yearA decrease of 3.6 percentage points, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with company guidance at 34.5%; consensus expectations for Non-GAAP gross margin36.5%，A year-over-year drop of 5.6 percentage points, a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3.5 percentage points, with company guidance also at 36.5%. – Market consensus for GAAPNet loss of $6.6 billion, falling back into losses, Non-GAAP net profit$4.39 billion, representing a year-on-yearDown 23%, a sequential decline of 57%, with company guidance at $3.6 billion. Intel has had a relatively smooth run recently. Riding on rumors of server CPU shortages and expectations of a rebound in foundry operations, its stock price has surged. But sentiment aside, how solid are the fundamentals? This earnings report,management must directly address these three key questionsto sustain this rally. 1. Server CPU shortage: Is it real demand or just Wall Street's...
Intel has had a relatively smooth run recently. Riding on rumors of server CPU shortages and expectations of a rebound in foundry operations, its stock price has surged. But sentiment aside, how solid are the fundamentals? This earnings report,management must directly address these three key questionsto sustain this rally.
1. Server CPU shortage: Is it real demand or just Wall Street hype?
As we analyzed previously in'Server CPUs: The Next Big Shortage After Memory Chips?', the surge logic was clear: $Intel (INTC.US)$ an explosion in AI inference demand could lead to a 'cyclical shortage' of server CPUs similar to what happened in memory chips. Last week, this narrative was fully ignited by Wall Street. KeyBanc issued a research note predicting that by 2026, Intel and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ Server capacity is selling out, leading to a significant increase in the target price.
Author | Eric Global chip giant $Intel (INTC.US)$ will release its Q4 earnings report after market close this Thursday Eastern Time. The market is focused on updates from Intel’s management regarding the company’s outlook amid the recent debut of its 18A product and the hype around server CPU shortages. Consensus expectations for key Q4 financial metrics - Market consensus revenue estimate$13.4 billion, representing a year-on-year, down 6% year-over-year, with a 2% sequential decline; the company’s guidance range is $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion. - Market consensus GAAP gross margin estimate35.6%, representing a year-on-yearA decrease of 3.6 percentage points, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with company guidance at 34.5%; consensus expectations for Non-GAAP gross margin36.5%，A year-over-year drop of 5.6 percentage points, a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3.5 percentage points, with company guidance also at 36.5%. – Market consensus for GAAPNet loss of $6.6 billion, falling back into losses, Non-GAAP net profit$4.39 billion, representing a year-on-yearDown 23%, a sequential decline of 57%, with company guidance at $3.6 billion. Intel has had a relatively smooth run recently. Riding on rumors of server CPU shortages and expectations of a rebound in foundry operations, its stock price has surged. But sentiment aside, how solid are the fundamentals? This earnings report,management must directly address these three key questionsto sustain this rally. 1. Server CPU shortage: Is it real demand or just Wall Street's...
But is the situation really this optimistic? Last quarter, management revealed that despite AMD’s pressure, Intel still holds its ground in AI server CPUs. Demand for Granite Rapids (Intel 3+Intel 7 process) remains strong.The current bottleneck is the inability to manufacture enough supply.Old PC products sold too well last year, occupying the 'lagging capacity' of Intel 10 and Intel 7, causing tight data center supply by Q3 2025. Worse still, management has no plans to expand these older production lines, relying entirely on inventory to manage substrate shortages.The shortage is expected to peak in Q1 2026.Faced with Wall Street’s frenzied expectations of a 'shortage wave,' will management go along with the hype or throw cold water on it?
Can the battle over the 18A process help secure more customers for the 14A process?
Since unveiling the Panther Lake processor using its own 18A process at CES earlier this year, $Intel (INTC.US)$ the stock price has skyrocketed, leaving other semiconductor peers far behind. This shows the market is starting to believe that 18A might actually succeed.
Why the relentless focus on 18A? Because the Foundry business is extremely capital-intensive. Over the past four quarters, this segment of Intel's businesshas lost more than $10 billion. As long as 18A can ramp up production, even if it doesn't reach 'full capacity by 2030' as management stated, just narrowing the losses would be a huge positive.
Author | Eric Global chip giant $Intel (INTC.US)$ will release its Q4 earnings report after market close this Thursday Eastern Time. The market is focused on updates from Intel’s management regarding the company’s outlook amid the recent debut of its 18A product and the hype around server CPU shortages. Consensus expectations for key Q4 financial metrics - Market consensus revenue estimate$13.4 billion, representing a year-on-year, down 6% year-over-year, with a 2% sequential decline; the company’s guidance range is $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion. - Market consensus GAAP gross margin estimate35.6%, representing a year-on-yearA decrease of 3.6 percentage points, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with company guidance at 34.5%; consensus expectations for Non-GAAP gross margin36.5%，A year-over-year drop of 5.6 percentage points, a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3.5 percentage points, with company guidance also at 36.5%. – Market consensus for GAAPNet loss of $6.6 billion, falling back into losses, Non-GAAP net profit$4.39 billion, representing a year-on-yearDown 23%, a sequential decline of 57%, with company guidance at $3.6 billion. Intel has had a relatively smooth run recently. Riding on rumors of server CPU shortages and expectations of a rebound in foundry operations, its stock price has surged. But sentiment aside, how solid are the fundamentals? This earnings report,management must directly address these three key questionsto sustain this rally. 1. Server CPU shortage: Is it real demand or just Wall Street's...
Moreover, 18A is currently entirely self-produced and self-consumed. If Intel's own products can demonstrate reliable technology, it won’t just stabilize internal confidence but also help attract external investors for the future 14A (rumored to have interest). $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Last quarter, management mentioned that customer feedback on 14A has been good, with yields better than ever before.If Intel announces securing a new client for 14A this time, that would truly be a strong boost.Of course, don’t expect Intel to splurge money like $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ . Capital expenditure for 2026 is still projected to remain at $18 billion, showing continued caution.
3. PC Core Business: Will the wave of memory/storage price hikes scare off consumers?
The PC business is $Intel (INTC.US)$ An absolute cash cow, contributing to the company's revenue in Q3 202563%, contributing 394% to the company’s operating profit. The operating profit margin of the PC business increased to in Q3 202532%, and is expected to rise further this quarter to34% (significantly higher than $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ Client/Gaming business). Despite AMD’s strong competition in the desktop market, management stated that Intel remains in a strong position in both consumer and enterprise laptop segments.
Author | Eric Global chip giant $Intel (INTC.US)$ will release its Q4 earnings report after market close this Thursday Eastern Time. The market is focused on updates from Intel’s management regarding the company’s outlook amid the recent debut of its 18A product and the hype around server CPU shortages. Consensus expectations for key Q4 financial metrics - Market consensus revenue estimate$13.4 billion, representing a year-on-year, down 6% year-over-year, with a 2% sequential decline; the company’s guidance range is $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion. - Market consensus GAAP gross margin estimate35.6%, representing a year-on-yearA decrease of 3.6 percentage points, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with company guidance at 34.5%; consensus expectations for Non-GAAP gross margin36.5%，A year-over-year drop of 5.6 percentage points, a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3.5 percentage points, with company guidance also at 36.5%. – Market consensus for GAAPNet loss of $6.6 billion, falling back into losses, Non-GAAP net profit$4.39 billion, representing a year-on-yearDown 23%, a sequential decline of 57%, with company guidance at $3.6 billion. Intel has had a relatively smooth run recently. Riding on rumors of server CPU shortages and expectations of a rebound in foundry operations, its stock price has surged. But sentiment aside, how solid are the fundamentals? This earnings report,management must directly address these three key questionsto sustain this rally. 1. Server CPU shortage: Is it real demand or just Wall Street's...
New laptops equipped with Intel’s Panther Lake will go on sale globally by the end of January, with over 200 new models queued for release later (compared to only about 120 new models from $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ ), showing an impressive lineup.
However, the market is still focused on the impact of surging memory and storage prices on PC demand,with reports that some smartphone and PC manufacturers have begun significantly lowering their shipment forecasts for 2026. Investors are watching how management addresses the impact of rising memory and storage costs on PC demand in this earnings report.
Conclusion
Overall,Market expectations for Intel’s performance itself are not high; the focus remains on hearing signs of improvement and confirmation of a recovery trend.As for the market's short-term speculation on the narrative of server CPU shortages and betting on a strong sales performance of 18A to turn around Foundry operations, it seems more like a catalyst for market sentiment.
In the past nine quarters of earnings reports, Intel’s stock price has only risen three times. Whether it can break this curse this time remains to be seen.
牛牛Insights related historical articles:
'Server CPUs: The Next Big Shortage After Memory Chips?'
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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