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Weekly Outlook | US imposes additional tariffs on eight European countries! Monitor next week's market performance; Trump to lead delegation to Davos; 'The Fed's favorite inflation indicator' coming up; Intel, Netflix among others to release earnings

Next Monday, China's full-year GDP growth rate for 2025 and the final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for January will be released. The US stock market will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the US Supreme Court may rule on Trump's tariff case on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the US Supreme Court will focus on the Cook dismissal case, a hearing that could be more important than who becomes the next Fed chair. On Thursday, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE, will be released, with Morgan Stanley warning of a significant rebound in the data.。

In terms of events, President Trump will lead a delegation to attend the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Monday and will deliver a speech on 'How do we cooperate in an increasingly competitive world?' at the forum on Wednesday. On Friday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference on monetary policy. In terms of earnings reports, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Intel will release their results.

Key Schedule Highlights

The November PCE index, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, will be released on Thursday.

On Thursday, January 22nd, the November PCE index, the Fed’s most favored inflation gauge, will be released. After December's CPI data was suggested to possibly be distorted, this data has become crucial for assessing the true trend of US inflation. Morgan Stanley forecasts that core goods PCE will reach 0.46% month-over-month, significantly higher than the flat performance of core goods in the CPI. This discrepancy stems from weakness in new and used cars within the CPI, whereas appliances, software, electronics, and other goods with higher weights in the PCE are seeing accelerating price increases.

Analysts pointed out that this divergence poses a challenge for the Fed. While the CPI, the most familiar inflation measure to the public, shows cooling, which might strengthen market expectations for rate cuts, the PCE index, which the Fed truly monitors, could indicate a re-acceleration of inflation. If Morgan Stanley's prediction is accurate, the year-on-year core PCE for December will rise to 2.90%, much higher than November's 2.67%, directly impacting market expectations for the Fed to cut rates.

The US imposes additional tariffs on eight European countries; monitor next week's market performance.

Trump announced on social media on the 17th that a 10% tariff will be imposed on goods imported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1. Trump stated that the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1 until relevant parties reach an agreement on the U.S. 'full and complete purchase of Greenland.' On the 16th, Trump threatened that he might impose tariffs on countries opposing the U.S. acquisition of Greenland.

James Ragan, co-chief investment officer and head of investment management research at D.A. Davidson, noted: "The market has largely become immune to a large number of geopolitical and domestic political issues in the US, but that does not mean the risks do not exist." He pointed out: "Trump could still push for some more radical, grand policies, and the market will then have to assess whether these policies are significant enough to trigger a substantive response."

The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos will be held this week, with Trump leading a record-sized U.S. delegation to attend.

From January 19 to 23 (Monday to Friday), the 56th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum will take place in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. Under the theme 'The Spirit of Dialogue,' it is expected to attract over 60 heads of state from around the globe and thousands of leaders from various sectors. Forum President Borge Brende stated that six out of the seven G7 leaders, including Trump, have confirmed their attendance.

In addition, Zelenskyy, Syrian leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, and others will also attend. Currently, an estimated 64 heads of state or government leaders are expected to attend, which would set a new historical record. Brende mentioned that this figure may increase further before the event officially begins.

U.S. President Trump will lead the largest-ever U.S. delegation to attend and is expected to deliver a speech on January 21 regarding 'How do we cooperate in an increasingly competitive world?' Whether his tariff policies, military intervention in Venezuela, and threats to purchase Greenland will become discussion topics will be a key highlight. Additionally, any remarks concerning his disputes with Powell could draw significant market attention.

Meanwhile, the forum will welcome a rare high-density appearance of tech leaders,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$CEO Jensen Huang,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$CEO Nadella, Anthropic CEO Amodei,$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$DeepMind CEO Hassabis, and key figures from OpenAI, Mistral AI, and other companies will gather; the governance, development, and global impact of artificial intelligence are bound to become core topics.

The U.S. Supreme Court has set Tuesday as the next tariff opinion day, potentially ruling on Trump's tariff case.

The US Supreme Court has set Tuesday, January 20, as the next date for issuing rulings, with the world awaiting the decision on President Trump's landmark tariff policy. If the ruling on the tariff case is not released next week, it may take at least another month. Justices typically enter the courtroom only when issuing opinions on reviewed cases, and Wednesday will be the last court conference before the next session, after which the court will recess until February 20.

Trump said on Friday that losing the Supreme Court case would be a disgrace for the United States. Investors are awaiting the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of Trump's 'global tariff policy,' which could trigger fluctuations in asset prices.

Further Reading:The US Supreme Court has not yet announced the ruling on Trump's tariffs; the next decision is scheduled for next Wednesday

The US Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Wednesday regarding the case of Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

On Wednesday, January 21, the U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. This ruling will set a key precedent on whether the President can bypass legal protections to remove Fed officials 'for cause,' making it a critical indicator of the battle to preserve the Fed’s independence.

Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave stated in a report: 'If the court rules against Cook, it will significantly increase the likelihood of Powell being removed due to the DOJ investigation. We have consistently argued that the Cook case has greater implications for the policy trajectory than the selection of the next Fed Chair.'

Trump previously hinted that he might want Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council and a top contender for the Fed Chair position, to remain in his current role. Another contender for the position, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, is seen by some as potentially less aggressive than Hassett in pushing for rate cuts.

Wedbush analysts noted in a report this week: 'The end of Chairman Powell’s term will be a key turning point in the narrative of the Federal Reserve's independence. Once the market perceives that the Fed's independence is compromised, it could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher financing costs for the US government.'

Further Reading:The Supreme Court to Focus on Cook's Removal Case Next Week: This Hearing Matters More Than Who Chairs the Fed!

Next week will see a flurry of earnings reports, with Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Intel, and others set to announce their results.

Earnings season is reaching its peak,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$、$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$、$Intel (INTC.US)$、$GE Aerospace (GE.US)$、$Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$、$Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US)$with companies set to release their earnings reports en masse. The stock market rally is trading near highs, led by small-cap stocks while software stocks struggle. Overall, however, the market shows good breadth in terms of sectors and leading performers.

Streaming service company$Netflix (NFLX.US)$Netflix will release its Q4 earnings report after the US stock market closes on Tuesday. Analysts expect the company to benefit from the final season of the hit series 'Stranger Things' and other popular content. According to FactSet, analysts forecast Netflix’s earnings per share (EPS) to reach 55 cents, a 28% year-over-year increase, with revenue of $11.97 billion, up 17% year-over-year. Healthcare giant$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$Earnings report due before market open on Wednesday. Analysts expect a 22% increase in profits and a 7% rise in sales.

$Intel (INTC.US)$Earnings release after the market close on Thursday. Wall Street consensus expects the chipmaker to report earnings of 8 cents per share, down 40% year-over-year, with revenue at $13.4 billion, a 6% decline. Amidst support from the U.S. government and attention on its 18A node chip manufacturing process, Intel is attempting to implement a transformation strategy.

U.S. stock markets are closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and U.S. stock markets will be closed for the day. Precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures trading under CME Group will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on January 20th. U.S. bond and index futures trading will conclude at 02:00 Beijing time on January 20th. ICE’s sugar, cotton, and other agricultural futures will be closed for the day, as will CBOT’s agricultural products trading.

Key economic data including China's GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and housing prices across 70 cities.

On Monday, January 19th, key Chinese economic data was released, including Q4 GDP, industrial production for enterprises above designated size, total retail sales, housing prices across 70 cities, fixed asset investment, and unemployment rate. On the same day, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the state of the national economy.

Zhejiang Securities expects Q4 GDP growth to be 4.6% year-over-year, reflecting strong industrial production while consumer demand recovery remains moderate. CICC also forecasts Q4 GDP growth of 4.6% YoY, with full-year GDP growth expected at 5.0%.

The Bank of Japan releases its interest rate decision and economic outlook report.

On Friday, January 23rd, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce its interest rate decision. The market widely expects the central bank to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, following a December rate hike. Although inflation data released prior to the meeting may indicate easing price pressures, core CPI is still expected to remain elevated. Considering domestic political uncertainties, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks during the post-meeting press conference are expected to be cautious.

The 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will take place on Tuesday.

The 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will be held in Shanghai on January 20th. The PolarDB Developer Conference, hosted by Alibaba Cloud, is a major database technology event focusing on cutting-edge cloud-native database technologies, industry practices, and developer ecosystem building. It aims to create a world-leading platform for cloud-native database technology exchange and ecosystem development.

This conference, themed 'Cloud-Native Databases Ready for AI,' brings together global database experts, corporate CTOs/CIOs, developers, technology decision-makers, and open-source community leaders to discuss key topics such as the deepening evolution of cloud-native under AI-driven conditions, architecture upgrades oriented towards AI, data-intelligence integration (Data+AI), and open-source openness, creating a high-value platform that integrates technical exchange, ecosystem co-construction, and business cooperation.

Key earnings calendar for the new week

Further Reading:[Prize Giveaway] Prepare for Rigorous Tests! Netflix and Intel to Face Challenges, Weekly Earnings Express (1.19-1.23)

Monday (January 19th)

Keywords: China’s Full-Year GDP Growth Rate for 2025, Trump Leading Delegation to Attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Longqi Technology Subscription Ends, US Stock Market Closed

In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to China's full-year GDP growth rate for 2025.。

10:00 China’s Full-Year GDP Growth Rate for 2025, China’s Q4 GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate, China’s Full-Year GDP Total for 2025 (in Trillions), China’s December Retail Sales YoY, China’s December Industrial Output Growth YoY

In terms of financial events, US President Trump will lead a delegation to attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, time TBD.

09:30 National Bureau of Statistics releases monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities.

10:00 State Council Information Office holds press conference on the status of the national economy.

TBD US President Trump leads a delegation to attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos; the 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting is held from January 19 to 23, with the theme 'The Spirit of Dialogue.'

In terms of performance,$Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX.US)$Earnings will be released today.

In terms of new stocks,$LONGCHEER (09611.HK)$The new share subscription has ended.

Regarding market holidays,Due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, the US-NYSE stock market will be closed for one day; precious metals and US crude oil futures contract trading under CME Group (CME) will end earlier at 03:30 Beijing time on the 20th, while US bond and stock index futures contract trading will end earlier at 02:00 Beijing time on the 20th; ICE’s raw sugar, cotton, and other agricultural product futures will be closed for one day; CBOT’s agricultural products trading will also be closed for one day.

Tuesday (January 20th)

Keywords: China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) as of January 20, 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference, Netflix/Interactive Brokers earnings, Longcheer Technology announces lottery results

In terms of economic data,China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) as of January 20 will be announced.

09:00 China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) as of January 20

In terms of financial events,A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open, timing yet to be determined.

09:30 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference

16:30 Blackrock CEO Fink speaks at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

To be determined: A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open

In terms of performance,$D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$、$Fastenal (FAST.US)$、$3M (MMM.US)$、$U.S. Bancorp (USB.US)$will release earnings before the US stock market opens,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$、$Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US)$、$United Airlines (UAL.US)$、$Wintrust Financial (WTFC.US)$Will release earnings after the US stock market closes.

In terms of new stocks,$LONGCHEER (09611.HK)$The lottery results for the new shares have been announced.

Wednesday (January 21)

Keywords: US December Conference Board Leading Index MoM, Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Johnson & Johnson's earnings, BitGo Holdings subscription ends

In terms of economic data,Focus on the total number of US November building permits (in 10,000 units), and the US December Conference Board Leading Index MoM.

21:30 US November total building permits (in 10,000 units)

23:00 US December Conference Board Leading Index MoM, US October construction spending MoM, US December pending home sales index MoM

In terms of financial events,IEA releases the monthly oil market report, Trump delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting on 'How do we cooperate in an increasingly competitive world?'

03:30 NYMEX New York crude oil February futures are affected by rollover. The last in-market trading will be completed at 3:30 on January 21, and electronic trading will end at 6:00 AM. Please check the exchange announcements regarding contract expiration to manage risks. Additionally, some trading platforms usually have their US oil contracts expire one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

15:30 ECB President Lagarde and Blackrock CEO Fink attend a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum.

17:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report

21:00 US President Trump delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting on 'How do we cooperate in an increasingly competitive world?'

In terms of performance,$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$、$Ally Financial (ALLY.US)$、$TE Connectivity (TEL.US)$will release earnings before the US stock market opens,$CACI International (CACI.US)$、$Kinder Morgan (KMI.US)$Earnings will be released after the US stock market closes.

In terms of new stocks,$BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$New share subscription has ended.

Thursday (January 22)

Keywords: US weekly initial jobless claims, November core PCE price index year-over-year, Intel/Procter & Gamble/Intuitive Surgical/GE Aerospace/Freeport-McMoRan earnings, Longcheer Technology listed today, BitGo Holdings announced lottery results & listed today

In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 (in ten thousand), and the US November core PCE price index year-over-year.

05:30 US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16 (in ten thousand barrels)

21:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 (in ten thousand), US November core PCE price index year-over-year, US November personal spending month-over-month, US Q3 GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter final reading, US Q3 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-over-quarter final reading, US Q3 core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter final reading, US November core PCE price index month-over-month

23:30 US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 16 (in billion cubic feet)

In terms of financial events,The European Central Bank releases the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting.

20:30 The European Central Bank releases the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting.

23:15 The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting holds a special seminar on the Middle East economy and a discussion session on growth issues. IMF Managing Director Georgieva participates in the discussion.

In terms of performance,$Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$、$GE Aerospace (GE.US)$、$Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US)$、$Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US)$、$McCormick & Co (MKC.US)$will release earnings before the US stock market opens,$Intel (INTC.US)$、$Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)$、$Alcoa (AA.US)$Will release earnings after the US stock market closes.

In terms of new stocks,$LONGCHEER (09611.HK)$Listed today,$BitGo Holdings (BTGO.US)$Announced the lottery results and will be listed today.

Friday (January 23rd)

Keywords: US weekly EIA crude oil inventory (in million barrels), January final reading of University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Ericsson's earnings, EquipmentShare.com Inc goes public today

In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to the US weekly EIA crude oil inventory (in million barrels) and the January final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

01:00 US weekly EIA crude oil inventory as of January 16th (in million barrels), US weekly EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory as of January 16th (in million barrels), US weekly EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory as of January 16th (in million barrels).

22:45 US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, US January S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading.

23:00 Final reading of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January and final reading of one-year inflation expectation in the US

In terms of financial events,Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, time to be determined.

14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference

18:00 World Economic Forum holds a panel discussion on global economic prospects

To be determined: Bank of Japan releases interest rate decision and economic outlook report

In terms of performance,$LM Ericsson Telephone (ERIC.US)$、$SLB Ltd (SLB.US)$、$Comerica(Delisted) (CMA.US)$Will release earnings before the US stock market opens.

In terms of new stocks,$EquipmentShare.com (EQPT.US)$Listed today.

Stay ahead with key financial events and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Economic Calendar/Key Macroeconomic Data, Seize Investment Opportunities Ahead!

A new week begins, wishing all fellow investors successful investments!

Editor/melody

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