[Warrant Perspective] Ganfeng Lithium's Technical Divergence After Accumulated Gains, Discussion on Probability of Adjustment

January 15th,$GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$

Closing price at 66.8 yuan, surged 7.66% in a single day, with trading volume reaching 1.722 billion yuan, showing effective amplification in tandem with the stock price. A notable characteristic of its trend is that it bears a striking resemblance to $HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$ , having entered an oscillating upward rhythm since early December, and maintaining an upward momentum throughout January. Despite some adjustments along the way, the overall trend remains unchanged.

Notably, on January 15th, the intraday share price reached a high of 67.55 yuan, successfully breaking through the top of the Bollinger Band, and ultimately closing above the upper band as well. This breakout indeed brought considerable uplift to the market. However, as we’ve reminded in our [HK Stock Broadcast],January 15th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Ganfeng Lithium, NetEase, Hong Kong Exchange, China Construction BankIt was also mentioned earlier that the trend following a breakout at such high levels has always been uncertain, given the significant gains already accumulated in the previous period. A situation similar to the one in late December 2025, where the price broke above the upper channel and then retreated to the midline, could certainly happen again. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$NTES-S (09999.HK)$$HKEX (00388.HK)$$CCB (00939.HK)$

From the perspective of technical indicator combinations, the overall summary leans toward sell signals, with as many as nine sell signals against five buy signals, indicating a generally cautious sentiment. Specifically, the RSI is at 68, which is in the neutral zone but close to the overbought threshold. The Williams %R indicator shows an overbought condition but gives a neutral signal, while the CCI indicator releases a buy signal. The mixed opinions from multiple oscillators reflect the current market's hesitancy.

In terms of moving averages, the MA10 (58.35 yuan), MA30 (53.64 yuan), and MA60 (52.37 yuan) are arranged in a bullish alignment, providing some support for the short-term trend and confirming the recent upward momentum.

As of 11:36 AM today (the 16th), Ganfeng Lithium's latest price was 64.3 yuan, showing a temporary decline of 3.89%.Regarding support levels, the first short-term support is at 58.4 yuan, and if it breaks below that, it may test the second support level at 55.6 yuan. Notably, 55.6 yuan aligns with the middle line of the Bollinger Band (daily chart), making this level a core reference point for future tracking since fixed reference points tend to be more reliable than dynamic channel lines. Resistance levels are concentrated at 71.6 yuan (first resistance) and 76.7 yuan (second resistance), with a sustained volume increase needed for any short-term breakthrough.

Warrant Review: Two Call Warrants Surge Over 20% in Two Days

Looking at the performance of previously recommended warrant products, the call warrants related to Ganfeng Lithium have yielded substantial returns. Those mentioned on January 13th $SGGANFE@EC2607A.C (24166.HK)$ and $BIGANFE@EC2607A.C (24070.HK)$ , achieved gains of 24% and 23% respectively after two days, while the underlying stock only rose by 8.62% during the same period. This highlights the leverage effect, offering good returns for retail investors participating in warrants.

Of course, it’s important to note that high returns come with high risks in warrants. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so don’t blindly chase highs.

Warrant Picks: Two Call Warrants Each Have Their Own Advantages

For investors interested in participating in Ganfeng Lithium's warrants, two distinctive call warrants have been selected for reference:

The first one is$SGGANFE@EC2612A.C (22878.HK)$, with a leverage of 2.3 times and an exercise price of 75.45 yuan. Its main highlight is the relatively ideal performance of leverage and implied volatility, making it suitable for investors who prioritize leverage efficiency;

The second one is$MSGANFE@EC2612A.C (22830.HK)$, which also features 2.3 times leverage and an exercise price of 75.45 yuan. Its core advantage lies in having the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, offering relatively good cost-effectiveness.

Do you think Ganfeng Lithium will repeat the pullback trend seen at the end of December? A. Most likely yes B. No C. Hard to say; Faced with such diverging signals from high-priced stocks, would you choose to wait and see or follow up?Come to the comment section and share your thoughts. Want to see more analysis? Remember to follow 'Hong Kong Warrant Jenny' for daily updates!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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