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Pando Insights: Three Major Trends in Geopolitics, Tariffs, and AI – Deciphering Trump’s ‘Election Playbook’

Image source: International Online
Image source: International Online
Q1. The geopolitical landscape has seen significant changes recently, such as the situation in Venezuela and news about Greenland. What are your thoughts?
In fact, what appears to be chaotic geopolitics on the surface becomes very clear and consistent if we look at it through the lens of Trump's '2026 election playbook.' My core argument is that the geopolitics of 2026 serves the domestic economy of the US. Everyone is worried about whether Venezuela will bring risks, but what I see is a 'hedge against inflation.' Why do I say this?
Q1. The geopolitical landscape has seen significant changes recently, such as the situation in Venezuela and news about Greenland. What are your thoughts? In fact, what appears to be chaotic geopolitics on the surface becomes very clear and consistent if we look at it through the lens of Trump's '2026 election playbook.' My core argument is that the geopolitics of 2026 serves the domestic economy of the US. Everyone is worried about whether Venezuela will bring risks, but what I see is a 'hedge against inflation.' Why do I say this? First, looking at Venezuela through the lens of 'oil as a tool': US refineries, especially along the Gulf Coast, have long lacked heavy crude oil. Allowing Venezuelan oil back into the market can precisely fill this structural gap. More importantly, according to IEA data, global oil supply is expected to face an oversupply pressure of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026. If the US pushes further at this point, allowing supply to expand even more, oil prices could be pushed down to $55 or even lower. There is a straightforward logic behind this: low oil prices lead to low inflation, low inflation creates room for interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts boost asset prices, thereby solidifying his election prospects. Therefore, Venezuela is not a 'black swan'; it is a key chip for Trump to create a 'low interest rates, low regulation, low taxes' environment. Second, looking at Greenland through the lens of the 'resource map': The same logic applies to Green...
First, looking at Venezuela through the lens of 'oil as a tool':
US refineries, especially along the Gulf Coast, have long lacked heavy crude oil. Allowing Venezuelan oil back into the market can precisely fill this structural gap. More importantly, according to IEA data, global oil supply is expected to face an oversupply pressure of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026. If the US pushes further at this point, allowing supply to expand even more, oil prices could be pushed down to $55 or even lower. There is a straightforward logic behind this: low oil prices lead to low inflation, low inflation creates room for interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts boost asset prices, thereby solidifying his election prospects. Therefore, Venezuela is not a 'black swan'; it is a key chip for Trump to create a 'low interest rates, low regulation, low taxes' environment.
Second, looking at Greenland through the lens of the 'resource map':
The same logic applies to Greenland. The US's actions regarding Greenland are not about expanding territory but securing the stability of the rare earths and critical minerals supply chain. Similar to controlling oil prices, the aim is to strengthen the US's dominant position on the supply side, thereby increasing its influence over price trends without external interference.
In summary: The market may have misjudged the situation in 2026. Washington cares more about voters' 'perception of price levels' than statistical data. Under this goal, recent geopolitical moves, if they ease upstream price pressures, may indirectly provide liquidity support for risk assets. This is a 'resource game' initiated to create room for interest rate cuts.
Q2. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's global tariff policy. How do you assess the risks associated with this event?
This is indeed a major suspense for the market recently. Regarding this ruling, instead of guessing, let's see how the money votes. I just checked the latest odds on Polymarket, and the data is quite surprising: the market currently believes there is only a 24% chance of Trump winning at the Supreme Court. In other words, market funds are more than 70% confident that Washington will lose this legal battle.
But my core argument is: investors must never equate 'legal defeat' with 'the end of tariffs.' There's a huge gap in understanding here. We can break down the upcoming scenarios into three possibilities:
Q1. The geopolitical landscape has seen significant changes recently, such as the situation in Venezuela and news about Greenland. What are your thoughts? In fact, what appears to be chaotic geopolitics on the surface becomes very clear and consistent if we look at it through the lens of Trump's '2026 election playbook.' My core argument is that the geopolitics of 2026 serves the domestic economy of the US. Everyone is worried about whether Venezuela will bring risks, but what I see is a 'hedge against inflation.' Why do I say this? First, looking at Venezuela through the lens of 'oil as a tool': US refineries, especially along the Gulf Coast, have long lacked heavy crude oil. Allowing Venezuelan oil back into the market can precisely fill this structural gap. More importantly, according to IEA data, global oil supply is expected to face an oversupply pressure of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026. If the US pushes further at this point, allowing supply to expand even more, oil prices could be pushed down to $55 or even lower. There is a straightforward logic behind this: low oil prices lead to low inflation, low inflation creates room for interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts boost asset prices, thereby solidifying his election prospects. Therefore, Venezuela is not a 'black swan'; it is a key chip for Trump to create a 'low interest rates, low regulation, low taxes' environment. Second, looking at Greenland through the lens of the 'resource map': The same logic applies to Green...
First: Government wins (24% chance) — Establishment of 'Imperial Power'
Although Polymarket shows this as only24%possible, if it happens, it would be a major 'shock' to the market. This would mean that the court confirms Trump’s broad policy flexibility over tariffs under the 'emergency powers framework'; the dollar might strengthen quickly, while emerging market exporters would lose further bargaining power.
Second: Government loses (76% chance) — The scenario the market is betting on, and the most dangerous 'illusion'
If the court rules as the market expects and finds the IEEPA tariffs illegal, it may look like good news on the surface because the government could theoretically face a tax rebate risk of up to $133.5 billion. However, this is what we want to warn everyone about: Trump has already prepared Plan B. Even if IEEPA is struck down, he can immediately invoke Section 232, Section 301, or even Sections 122/338 to quickly repackage the old case in the form of new regulations. So, if there's a brief market rally following a ruling against the government tomorrow, it may be a trap. The legal basis changes, but the taxes remain, and the political cost may be higher, extending the litigation timeline.
Third: Mixed ruling — Quagmire
The court might also take a middle-ground approach, retaining some tariffs while overturning others. This is actually a very agonizing outcome because uncertainty is prolonged. Companies will be mired in lengthy administrative appeals and tax rebate tug-of-wars, while Washington will 'patch loopholes as they adjust,' which is exactly the kind of situation the stock market dislikes.
Q1. The geopolitical landscape has seen significant changes recently, such as the situation in Venezuela and news about Greenland. What are your thoughts? In fact, what appears to be chaotic geopolitics on the surface becomes very clear and consistent if we look at it through the lens of Trump's '2026 election playbook.' My core argument is that the geopolitics of 2026 serves the domestic economy of the US. Everyone is worried about whether Venezuela will bring risks, but what I see is a 'hedge against inflation.' Why do I say this? First, looking at Venezuela through the lens of 'oil as a tool': US refineries, especially along the Gulf Coast, have long lacked heavy crude oil. Allowing Venezuelan oil back into the market can precisely fill this structural gap. More importantly, according to IEA data, global oil supply is expected to face an oversupply pressure of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026. If the US pushes further at this point, allowing supply to expand even more, oil prices could be pushed down to $55 or even lower. There is a straightforward logic behind this: low oil prices lead to low inflation, low inflation creates room for interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts boost asset prices, thereby solidifying his election prospects. Therefore, Venezuela is not a 'black swan'; it is a key chip for Trump to create a 'low interest rates, low regulation, low taxes' environment. Second, looking at Greenland through the lens of the 'resource map': The same logic applies to Green...
In summary: The 24% shown by Polymarket indicates that the market is pessimistic about Washington’s legal battle. However, I believe that regardless of the ruling, tariffs are a core asset for Trump and will not disappear. If Washington eventually loses, don’t rush to celebrate; instead, watch closely which 'new regulation' Washington will roll out within hours to take over.
Q3. Since the beginning of the year, we've seen a surge in memory stocks and many new developments at CES. Beck, do you think the AI trend will continue until 2026, or is it already overheated?
This is an excellent observation. Many people saw the explosive rise in memory at the start of the year and thought it was just a cyclical rebound, but I believe this is a signal of the official start of 'Phase Two of AI.' To understand the trends of 2026, I suggest everyone pay attention to three key terms: Rubin, cake, and Agent.
Q1. The geopolitical landscape has seen significant changes recently, such as the situation in Venezuela and news about Greenland. What are your thoughts? In fact, what appears to be chaotic geopolitics on the surface becomes very clear and consistent if we look at it through the lens of Trump's '2026 election playbook.' My core argument is that the geopolitics of 2026 serves the domestic economy of the US. Everyone is worried about whether Venezuela will bring risks, but what I see is a 'hedge against inflation.' Why do I say this? First, looking at Venezuela through the lens of 'oil as a tool': US refineries, especially along the Gulf Coast, have long lacked heavy crude oil. Allowing Venezuelan oil back into the market can precisely fill this structural gap. More importantly, according to IEA data, global oil supply is expected to face an oversupply pressure of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026. If the US pushes further at this point, allowing supply to expand even more, oil prices could be pushed down to $55 or even lower. There is a straightforward logic behind this: low oil prices lead to low inflation, low inflation creates room for interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts boost asset prices, thereby solidifying his election prospects. Therefore, Venezuela is not a 'black swan'; it is a key chip for Trump to create a 'low interest rates, low regulation, low taxes' environment. Second, looking at Greenland through the lens of the 'resource map': The same logic applies to Green...
First, the hardware 'arms race' has escalated (Vera Rubin & Memory):
The jaw-dropping news from CES was NVIDIA’s announcement of the mass production timeline for the Vera Rubin architecture. This isn’t just about being a bit faster—it shows exponential growth in bandwidth demand. This directly explains why memory (especially HBM4 and high-end DRAM) has skyrocketed—because the new generation of ‘AI powerhouses’ requires stronger ‘fuel.’ This tells us that the capital expenditure (Capex) on AI infrastructure hasn’t peaked; instead, it’s undergoing a ‘qualitative upgrade.’
Second, Jensen Huang’s 'Five-Layer Cake' theory (The 5-Layer Cake):
In his keynote, Jensen mentioned an important concept: AI computing is no longer just about a single chip—it’s a 'five-layer cake' stack: starting from Infrastructure (chips and systems) at the bottom, moving up to System Software, then Algorithms, followed by Edge/Robotics, and finally Applications/Agents at the top. Over the past two years, market investments have been heavily focused on the foundational ‘chip’ layer. But by 2026, we’re seeing value begin to shift upward through these layers.
Q1. The geopolitical landscape has seen significant changes recently, such as the situation in Venezuela and news about Greenland. What are your thoughts? In fact, what appears to be chaotic geopolitics on the surface becomes very clear and consistent if we look at it through the lens of Trump's '2026 election playbook.' My core argument is that the geopolitics of 2026 serves the domestic economy of the US. Everyone is worried about whether Venezuela will bring risks, but what I see is a 'hedge against inflation.' Why do I say this? First, looking at Venezuela through the lens of 'oil as a tool': US refineries, especially along the Gulf Coast, have long lacked heavy crude oil. Allowing Venezuelan oil back into the market can precisely fill this structural gap. More importantly, according to IEA data, global oil supply is expected to face an oversupply pressure of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026. If the US pushes further at this point, allowing supply to expand even more, oil prices could be pushed down to $55 or even lower. There is a straightforward logic behind this: low oil prices lead to low inflation, low inflation creates room for interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts boost asset prices, thereby solidifying his election prospects. Therefore, Venezuela is not a 'black swan'; it is a key chip for Trump to create a 'low interest rates, low regulation, low taxes' environment. Second, looking at Greenland through the lens of the 'resource map': The same logic applies to Green...
Third, the most important trend: Moving from Chatbots to Agents:
This is why I say the AI trend continues, but the logic has changed. Previously, we used AI in a question-and-answer format (Chatbot); now, what CES showcased is Agentic AI—it can proactively book tickets for you, write code, or even manage supply chains. This means AI has finally evolved from a ‘fun toy’ into a ‘commercializable productivity tool.’ Companies are willing to continue investing Capex because they see that the commercial model for Applications (at the application level) has been validated.
To summarize my view: The market fears AI is a bubble, but what I see is fundamental support. The Rubin architecture establishes the necessity for hardware, and the maturation of the ‘five-layer cake’ allows AI Agents to truly land and generate revenue. Therefore, 2026 isn’t just a year to buy ‘shovels’ (GPUs), but also a year to invest in ‘those who strike gold’ (applications and software).
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