[Warrant Insights] Divergence in Hang Seng Index Technical Signals! Key Points for High-Leverage Warrant Deployment

January 13th [Bank of China Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, CSPC Pharma, Wuxi Bio, China Life

January 14th, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

The index closed at 26,999.81 yuan, up 0.56% on the day, with a trading volume of 340.393 billion yuan. From a technical perspective,The Hang Seng Index currently has support levels at 26,342 and 25,817 points, with resistance levels at 27,353 and 27,982 points. The probability of an upward movement is 52%, and the 5-day volatility is 4.4%.In terms of moving averages, MA10 is at 26,432.35 points, MA30 at 25,962.92 points, and MA60 at 26,035.54 points; the stock price is currently above all major moving averages.

Regarding indicators, the RSI is at 66, nearing the overbought region. The overall technical indicator summary signal suggests selling, with a signal strength of 9. Various oscillation indicators show divergence: the Williams %R indicator is in the overbought zone but gives a neutral signal, the stochastic oscillator indicates overbought conditions with a sell signal, the CCI indicator suggests selling, the ADX indicator suggests buying, and both MACD and Bollinger Bands indicate buying signals.

On January 14, tech stocks generally stabilized, among which $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ closed at 633.00 yuan, slightly up by 0.88%. The stock price is holding firmly above multiple key moving averages, with the MACD signal being neutral. Overall, technical indicators remain strong; $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ closed at 169.00 yuan, surging significantly by 5.69%. However, the RSI is approaching the overbought zone, and short-term pullback risks need attention; $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ closed at 81.95 yuan, rising by 4.46%. The stock price broke through short-term resistance, and momentum indicators have strengthened. However, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ showed relative weakness, closing at 101.50 yuan, down by 3.24%. The technical pattern shows range-bound fluctuations, with trading volume significantly increasing to 8.142 billion yuan; $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ closed at 37.78 yuan, slightly down by 0.53%. The moving average system shows a bearish arrangement, but the stochastic oscillator indicates an oversold signal.

Financial stocks performed unevenly, $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ Closed at HKD 127.00, up slightly by 0.47%, but most technical indicators are showing sell signals, reflecting strong upward pressure; $AIA (01299.HK)$ Closed at HKD 84.70, up slightly by 0.36%, price is consolidating near the middle band of the Bollinger Channel, short-term direction unclear; $PING AN (02318.HK)$ Closed at HKD 68.70, down 1.86%, RSI has fallen into the neutral zone, need to observe if support levels can hold; $HKEX (00388.HK)$ Closed at HKD 434.80, up 0.69%, MACD shows a bottom divergence, which could present a technical rebound opportunity; $CCB (00939.HK)$ Closed at HKD 7.77, down slightly by 0.51%, trading volume was thin, overall technical signals remain neutral but leaning weak.

Regarding other blue chips, $SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK)$ Closed at HKD 64.75, down slightly by 0.46%, stock price is constrained by the MA30 moving average, lacking short-term catalysts for growth; $WUXI BIO (02269.HK)$ Closed at HKD 40.00, up slightly by 0.55%, but multiple technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, increasing downward pressure.

Overall, blue chip performance on January 14th was mixed; investors should pay attention to short-term technical indicator changes to formulate strategies.

Reviewing recent popular Hang Seng Index-related warrants and bull certificates' performance, as of January 12, 2026 $UB-HSI @EC2605B.C (23091.HK)$ The increase reached 20% in two days, during the same period $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$ The rise over two days was as high as 23%; regarding bull contracts, $BI#HSI RC2808E.C (64016.HK)$and$BI#HSI RC28081.C (63488.HK)$ The increases over two days were 36% and 35%, respectively, while the Hang Seng Index only rose by 1.47% cumulatively over the same period. It is evident that against the backdrop of a modest rebound in the Hang Seng Index, related call warrants and bull contracts achieved amplified returns due to their high leverage characteristics, delivering higher phased returns to investors.

Based on the current market environment and product data, the following high-value Hang Seng Index-related derivatives have been selected.

In terms of call warrants, UBS Group's call warrant (23091) and Bank of China’s call warrant (23128) both have the advantage of the lowest implied volatility, with leverage ratios of 11.9 and an exercise price of 28,341 points. For investors optimistic about the Hang Seng Index breaking through upper resistance levels, these products offer both cost efficiency and flexibility advantages.

Regarding put warrants, $BI-HSI @EP2603C.P (21317.HK)$ Their premiums and implied volatilities are the lowest among similar products, with a leverage ratio of 15.4 and an exercise price of 25,671 points, making them suitable for deployment by investors concerned about a Hang Seng Index pullback who seek steady cost control. $UB-HSI @EP2603C.P (21347.HK)$ The leverage is relatively high, reaching 14.9, with an exercise price of 25,671 points, which suits investors preferring high elasticity and willing to take on corresponding risks.

Regarding bull certificates, $BI#HSI RC28089.C (69532.HK)$ The leverage ratio is relatively high, reaching 24.1, with a recovery price of 26,005 points; $BI#HSI RC2808Z.C (64765.HK)$ A leverage ratio of 22.7 and a recovery price of 25,895 points, both have strong potential for elasticity, making them suitable for investors optimistic about the Hang Seng Index holding support levels and continuing its rebound.

Regarding bearish certificates, $BI#HSI RP28038.P (60102.HK)$ A leverage ratio of 24.8 and a recovery price of 27,988 points; $BI#HSI RP2801M.P (60164.HK)$With a leverage ratio of 23.9 and a call price at 28,000 points, the leverage is relatively high, making it suitable for investors who expect the Hang Seng Index to test upper resistance levels unsuccessfully and face pullback pressure to deploy.

Risk Warning:Two key points need attention: First, the current RSI of the Hang Seng Index has reached 66, nearing the overbought region, and technical indicators show divergence, which could increase short-term volatility. Investors choosing highly leveraged products (such as bull/bear contracts with leverage over 20) must closely monitor market trend changes to avoid blindly chasing highs. Second, some derivatives linked to the Hang Seng Index have call prices close to the current index level (e.g., Bull Certificate 64765 with a call price at 25,895 points, which is not far from the current Hang Seng Index level of 26,999.81). If the market reverses, it may trigger forced redemption risks. It's recommended that investors set strict stop-loss strategies and manage positions prudently.

The Hang Seng Index shows diverging technical signals. Would you choose low-premium call warrants to follow the rebound driven by tech stocks, or position high-leverage put warrants to hedge against market pullbacks? Share your thoughts in the comments!For more analysis, be sure to follow Jenny's daily updates on "HK Stock Warrants"!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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