Inflation heats up, central banks turn hawkish! Is the wind changing for gold prices?
From a macro perspective of Bank of China to individual stock analysis: Jiangxi Copper benefits from the rise in dual metal prices, with clear technical key levels
$JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK)$ Jiangxi Copper (00358) maintains a strong price pattern, recently trading at HKD 47.04, up 3.16%. The stock and the entire non-ferrous metals sector have collectively surged, hitting new all-time highs. The core driver behind this strong performance is the market's strong expectation of continuously rising metal prices. In particular, precious metal prices have collectively risen, with spot gold and silver reaching new historical highs, mainly due to increasing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and rising safe-haven demand. Citi recently raised its target price for Jiangxi Copper, primarily based on high market expectations for copper and gold prices.
From a technical chart perspective, Jiangxi Copper presents a complex situation where a long-term bottom breakout coexists with short-term overbought pressure. On one hand, the stock shows strong medium-to-long-term positive signals. Recently, the chart has displayed a typical bullish technical pattern — the 'Head and Shoulders Bottom' upward breakout. This is an important bottom reversal pattern, and when the stock price effectively breaks through its neckline resistance, it usually indicates that a trend-based upward movement has been confirmed, signaling a favorable technical outlook. This assessment is also supported by technical analysis platforms, which give it a comprehensive technical rating of 'Strong Buy,' with multiple moving averages and momentum indicators showing positive signals.
On the other hand, short-term technical indicators are flashing strong warning signs. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 76, placing it in the severely overbought zone. Meanwhile, Williams %R and Stochastic Oscillators also show 'Overbought' or 'Sell' signals. More critically, the overall technical indicator summary provided by systems points to a 'Strong Sell' with a strength score of 12, with multiple oscillators and rate-of-change indicators showing 'Top Divergence' or 'Sell' conditions. This suggests that although the medium-to-long-term trend remains positive, the stock has accumulated substantial gains in the short term, leading to significant divergence between bulls and bears at this level, and the risk of a technical pullback cannot be ignored.
Support and Resistance Analysis: HKD 48.2 becomes the key short-term test for upside
According to the latest technical analysis data, the key price range for Jiangxi Copper in the short term has become clear. On the upside, the primary resistance level is at HKD 48.2. This is the first major technical resistance level that the current stock price needs to overcome after breaking through the historical high. If it can stabilize above this level, the next major target will point to HKD 53.1. On the downside, the first important support line is located at HKD 42.3. This position is close to the 10-day moving average (HKD 44.27), serving as a critical watershed for determining whether the short-term trend weakens. A stronger medium-term support level is at HKD 38.2, near the 60-day moving average and previous key trading platforms, with expected strong buying power providing backing.
The market's optimistic view on Jiangxi Copper is closely tied to the overall logic of the non-ferrous metals sector and the company’s unique advantages. In the latest issue of [BOC Guest Column] on January 13th,Niki, a director at BOC International,clearly expressed a positive outlook on precious metal-related stocks, including Jiangxi Copper. She pointed out that at the beginning of 2026, there is a high probability that resource prices will continue to rise, potentially making precious metals a safe-haven asset. She believes that changes in the global trade landscape will prompt regions to place greater emphasis on nearby resource allocation, driving up resource prices. Notably, Niki specifically reminded investors that although Jiangxi Copper is named after 'copper,' approximately 20%-30% of its profits actually come from gold operations. This means that when investors are bullish on Jiangxi Copper, they are effectively positioning themselves for both copper and gold prices, giving it both industrial and financial safe-haven characteristics. Based on this, she suggested that investors could not only focus on the underlying stock but also use related derivative tools, such as a call warrant with an exercise price of 52.88 yuan and about 5x leverage (code: 27366), $BIJIANC@EC2604B.C (27366.HK)$to participate in this market opportunity.
This market view has been corroborated by international bank reports and the company's fundamentals. Citi recently raised its target price for Jiangxi Copper’s H shares significantly by 42.7% from 27.9 yuan to 39.8 yuan, based on higher expectations for copper and gold prices. In terms of performance, Jiangxi Copper showed robust results in Q3 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 35.2% year-on-year, demonstrating strong growth resilience.
Derivatives Review: Leveraged Effect Amplifies Trend-Based Returns
When the underlying stock shows a clear upward trend, using derivatives can effectively enhance capital efficiency. Reviewing the two call warrant products mentioned on January 12, 2026, in the following two trading days, Jiangxi Copper’s underlying stock rose cumulatively by 4.59%, while the performance of the related derivatives significantly outperformed the stock gains.
Specifically, the BOC call warrant (21592) $BIJIANC@EC2604A.C (21592.HK)$ rose by 25%, and the JPMorgan call warrant (23436) $JPJIANC@EC2604C.C (23436.HK)$ recorded a 24% increase. This clearly demonstrates that when the underlying stock experiences trend-based price movements due to sector positives, choosing the right call warrant leverages its inherent leverage characteristics to potentially achieve returns several times greater than the stock’s gains, enabling investors to capture industry-wide upward opportunities with less capital.
#Learn Warrants and Bull/Bear Contracts with Jenny# Key Insights: The Role and Importance of 'Liquidity Providers'
When investing in warrants (also known as call warrants) and bull/bear contracts, understanding the role of the 'liquidity provider' (commonly referred to as the 'market maker') is crucial. This directly affects how easy or difficult it is to buy and sell these products and also influences transaction costs. According to Hong Kong's market standards for listed structured products, issuers must appoint a liquidity provider for each warrant or bull/bear contract they issue. The primary responsibility of the liquidity provider is to offer bid and ask quotes during continuous trading hours, ensuring that there is sufficient basic liquidity in the market so investors can trade easily at any time.
Liquidity providers typically fulfill their duties in two ways: 'responsive quoting' and 'proactive quoting.' 'Responsive quoting' refers to when an investor requests a quote, and the market maker must respond with a compliant bid/ask order within a specified time frame (usually 10 minutes). 'Proactive quoting,' on the other hand, requires the market maker to continuously post bid/ask orders in the trading system for most of the trading day (at least 90% of the time). This is especially important for actively traded products as it enhances market transparency. For example, with BOC Call Warrant (code: 21592) mentioned in this article, BOC International acts as both the issuer and the appointed liquidity provider. During normal trading hours, investors should be able to see bid and ask prices posted by the liquidity provider in the trading system. This ensures that even if no other investors are posting orders, there will still be a counterparty available for trading. When selecting warrants, investors should not only focus on leverage and terms but also pay attention to whether the bid-ask spread is reasonable and whether quotes are consistently available. These factors directly reflect the service quality of the liquidity provider and ultimately impact the investor’s transaction costs and efficiency in entering or exiting positions.
Short-term technical indicators have signaled a strong consolidation pattern. Do you believe the stock price will break through the resistance level of 48.2 due to strong trend momentum and continue its upward trajectory, or will it experience a technical pullback toward the support level at 42.3 near its historical highs? After understanding the importance of liquidity providers in ensuring smooth trading, how would you balance the pursuit of high leverage with the need for product liquidity when choosing specific derivatives?
For analysis on Hong Kong stock warrants and CBBCs, this is Jenny, see you again next time.
#Jiangxi Copper #Technical Analysis #Support and Resistance Levels #Non-Ferrous Metals #Warrants #Bull/Bear Contracts #Liquidity Providers #Hedging Assets #HK Stock Strategy #Dual-Metal Drivers
This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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