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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Jan 14 11:20

[Warrant Insights] Does Tencent’s recent movement signal hidden opportunities? A review of the logic behind the recent 45% surge in warrants

At 11:07 AM today (the 14th), $TENCENT (00700.HK)$
The latest quote is HKD 637, up slightly by 1.43%, with a turnover reaching HKD 6.659 billion. From a technical perspective,the stock remains within the trading range of HKD 595 to HKD 660. The short-term support level is at HKD 612, with stronger support at HKD 595; as for resistance levels, the immediate one is at HKD 643, and a break above could lead to testing higher resistance at HKD 660.
In conjunction with technical indicators, Tencent’s MA10 (HKD 618.1) is above its MA30 (HKD 610.98), forming an early bullish alignment pattern. However, the RSI indicator stands at 59, remaining in the neutral zone. The overall technical signal can be summarized as "neutral," requiring a breakthrough of the resistance level at HKD 643 to confirm further upward momentum.
At 11:07 AM today (the 14th), $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The latest quote is HK$637, up slightly by 1.43%, with trading volume reaching HK$6.659 billion. From a technical perspective,the stock remains within the range of HK$595 to HK$660. The short-term support level is at HK$612, with strong support at HK$595; resistance levels are at HK$643 as the immediate barrier, and breaking through could lead to a challenge of the higher resistance at HK$660. Looking at the technical indicators, Tencent's MA10 (HK$618.1) is above its MA30 (HK$610.98), indicating the early formation of a bullish pattern. However, the RSI indicator at 59 is in a neutral zone. The overall technical signal is “neutral,” and a break above the resistance at HK$643 is needed to confirm further upward momentum. The internet sector shows clear divergence: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ On January 13th, it closed at HK$159.9, up 3.63%, but the technical signal is 'sell', with the RSI at 62 approaching overbought conditions, facing resistance at HK$168.8; $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ It closed at HK$104.9, down slightly by 0.10%, with the technical pattern also being 'neutral'; $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$and$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Others fell by 2.24% and 1.96% respectively, facing varying degrees of downward pressure. Overall, while Tencent is firmly holding above its moving average support, it lacks strong catalysts, and its short-term trend...
The tech sector shows evident divergence:
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ On January 13, it closed at HKD 159.9, up 3.63%, but the technical signal indicates "sell" as the RSI at 62 approaches overbought conditions, facing resistance at HKD 168.8; $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ It closed at HKD 104.9, down slightly by 0.10%, with the technical formation also being "neutral"; $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$and$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ They dropped 2.24% and 1.96%, respectively, facing different levels of adjustment pressure.
Overall, while Tencent holds steady above the moving average support, the lack of strong catalysts means that its short-term trend still requires observation of volume changes.
Looking back at Tencent's recent volatile trading, the leverage effect of its窝轮 (structured products) has been particularly significant. On January 9, after Tencent initiated a new round of rebound, related structured products responded strongly, with some $UB#CNOOCRP2605B.P (68097.HK)$ recording an increase of up to 45% in just two days, $UB#TENCTRC2606X.C (67093.HK)$ also gaining 41%, while Tencent’s underlying stock rose by only 2.70% during the same period; even those with relatively smaller gains, such as $BITENCT@EC2607A.C (23165.HK)$ , saw a two-day rise of 13%, far exceeding the performance of the underlying stock. These figures clearly show that when the underlying stock shows a clear rebound signal, the leverage characteristic of structured products can significantly amplify returns, which is why many investors focus on these products.
At 11:07 AM today (the 14th), $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The latest quote is HK$637, up slightly by 1.43%, with trading volume reaching HK$6.659 billion. From a technical perspective,the stock remains within the range of HK$595 to HK$660. The short-term support level is at HK$612, with strong support at HK$595; resistance levels are at HK$643 as the immediate barrier, and breaking through could lead to a challenge of the higher resistance at HK$660. Looking at the technical indicators, Tencent's MA10 (HK$618.1) is above its MA30 (HK$610.98), indicating the early formation of a bullish pattern. However, the RSI indicator at 59 is in a neutral zone. The overall technical signal is “neutral,” and a break above the resistance at HK$643 is needed to confirm further upward momentum. The internet sector shows clear divergence: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ On January 13th, it closed at HK$159.9, up 3.63%, but the technical signal is 'sell', with the RSI at 62 approaching overbought conditions, facing resistance at HK$168.8; $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ It closed at HK$104.9, down slightly by 0.10%, with the technical pattern also being 'neutral'; $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$and$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Others fell by 2.24% and 1.96% respectively, facing varying degrees of downward pressure. Overall, while Tencent is firmly holding above its moving average support, it lacks strong catalysts, and its short-term trend...
A simple breakdown of the logic: When the underlying stock rises, call structured products and bull contracts will follow suit, and the higher the actual leverage, the greater the potential increase; conversely, when the underlying stock falls, put structured products and bear contracts benefit. Additionally, the performance of structured products is also influenced by factors such as the distance between the exercise price and the stock price, changes in implied volatility, etc. Typically, products with lower premiums and implied volatility offer better value for money and relatively more controllable risks.
Based on the current market conditions, we have carefully selected two structured products from Tencent’s pool with the best value for money for investors’ reference:
Fellow investors who haven’t yet entered the market are advised to prioritize $UB#TENCTRC2606F.C (63637.HK)$ . This product offers an actual leverage of up to 17.9 times, with low premium, and its recovery price of 597 yuan is at a certain distance from the current stock price, offering relatively higher safety;
If you prefer call warrants, consider $HSTENCT@EC2606D.C (23657.HK)$ , which has the lowest premium and implied volatility. In the current relatively cautious trend of Tencent, low-premium options can effectively reduce downside risk.
Fellow investors who already hold the relevant warrants should set a reasonable profit target to avoid having gains eroded by short-term fluctuations.
At 11:07 AM today (the 14th), $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The latest quote is HK$637, up slightly by 1.43%, with trading volume reaching HK$6.659 billion. From a technical perspective,the stock remains within the range of HK$595 to HK$660. The short-term support level is at HK$612, with strong support at HK$595; resistance levels are at HK$643 as the immediate barrier, and breaking through could lead to a challenge of the higher resistance at HK$660. Looking at the technical indicators, Tencent's MA10 (HK$618.1) is above its MA30 (HK$610.98), indicating the early formation of a bullish pattern. However, the RSI indicator at 59 is in a neutral zone. The overall technical signal is “neutral,” and a break above the resistance at HK$643 is needed to confirm further upward momentum. The internet sector shows clear divergence: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ On January 13th, it closed at HK$159.9, up 3.63%, but the technical signal is 'sell', with the RSI at 62 approaching overbought conditions, facing resistance at HK$168.8; $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ It closed at HK$104.9, down slightly by 0.10%, with the technical pattern also being 'neutral'; $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$and$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Others fell by 2.24% and 1.96% respectively, facing varying degrees of downward pressure. Overall, while Tencent is firmly holding above its moving average support, it lacks strong catalysts, and its short-term trend...
At 11:07 AM today (the 14th), $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ The latest quote is HK$637, up slightly by 1.43%, with trading volume reaching HK$6.659 billion. From a technical perspective,the stock remains within the range of HK$595 to HK$660. The short-term support level is at HK$612, with strong support at HK$595; resistance levels are at HK$643 as the immediate barrier, and breaking through could lead to a challenge of the higher resistance at HK$660. Looking at the technical indicators, Tencent's MA10 (HK$618.1) is above its MA30 (HK$610.98), indicating the early formation of a bullish pattern. However, the RSI indicator at 59 is in a neutral zone. The overall technical signal is “neutral,” and a break above the resistance at HK$643 is needed to confirm further upward momentum. The internet sector shows clear divergence: $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ On January 13th, it closed at HK$159.9, up 3.63%, but the technical signal is 'sell', with the RSI at 62 approaching overbought conditions, facing resistance at HK$168.8; $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ It closed at HK$104.9, down slightly by 0.10%, with the technical pattern also being 'neutral'; $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$and$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Others fell by 2.24% and 1.96% respectively, facing varying degrees of downward pressure. Overall, while Tencent is firmly holding above its moving average support, it lacks strong catalysts, and its short-term trend...
Risk Warning: Intraday volatility may be due to short-term speculative trading. If the underlying stock lacks sustained volume support, the warrant can pull back at any time; warrants are high-risk derivatives. Before entering, make sure to check the warrant's real-time premium and trading volume carefully before making decisions.
Do you think Tencent will successfully break through the resistance level at $643 this time? When choosing a warrant, do you prioritize leverage or premium rate?Share your thoughts in the comments section!For more analysis, be sure to follow Jenny's daily updates on "HK Stock Warrants"!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#Tencent #HongKongStockMarketMovements #WarrantsRealTimeAnalysis #IntradayOpportunities #HongKongWarrantsJenny #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #TechSectorAnalysis
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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