As geopolitical risk premiums fade and Waller turns hawkish, when will precious metals hit bottom?
Integrating BOCOM’s view with technical charts: Zijin Mining's upside target is HKD 44.9, while downside support holds at HKD 35.2.
$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ As of January 13, 2026, Zijin Mining (02899) has been consolidating strongly near its historical high, last trading at HKD 40.22, up 2.39% for the day, with a turnover of HKD 2.886 billion, demonstrating strong market trading enthusiasm. The core driver of this surge was a milestone achieved by the company at the end of 2025 — both its A-shares and H-shares surpassed the RMB 1 trillion market capitalization mark. This marks the market's full recognition of Zijin’s growth logic shifting from being driven by 'gold and copper' to being propelled by 'gold, copper, and lithium.'The latest stock price today (the 14th) is reported at HKD 41.08, an increase of 2.14%.
Technically, the stock price pattern is extremely bullish. The current price is firmly above all key moving averages; the 10-day MA (MA10), 30-day MA (MA30), and 60-day MA (MA60) are at HKD 37.57, HKD 34.86, and HKD 33.36 respectively, forming a typical bullish alignment. Investing.com’s comprehensive technical rating is 'Strong Buy,' and momentum indicators such as MACD and CCI are broadly signaling positive trends. However, behind the sharp rally, short-term volatility risks are accumulating. The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 73, with Williams %R and Stochastic Oscillators issuing 'overbought' signals, corroborating the system’s 'Sell' conclusion signal (intensity 9). This contradiction between strong trends and overbought indicators reveals that the market is caught between short-term profit-taking pressures and long-term trend buying. Investors should closely monitor volume dynamics around key levels to assess breakout validity.
Support and Resistance Analysis: Focus on the HKD 41.5 level.
Based on the latest technical analysis data, Zijin Mining's critical short-term trading range has become very clear, providing precise coordinates for derivatives positioning.
On the upside, the primary resistance target is at 41.5 yuan. If it can successfully break through and stabilize above this level, the next target will be 44.9 yuan. On the downside, the first support level is at 37.3 yuan, close to the 10-day moving average. A more critical and stronger support level is at 35.2 yuan, near the 60-day moving average and also a key previous trading consolidation area, where strong buying power is expected.
In-depth Integration of Market Perspectives: The Convergence of Hedging Logic and Corporate Growth
The market's optimistic expectations for Zijin Mining are deeply integrated with global macro hedging sentiment and the company's exceptional individual growth. Recently, the [CICC Guest Appearance] column provided a detailed analysis of this.
In the December 2nd episode, Niki, Director of CICC International, pointed out that as the U.S. officially cut interest rates and the U.S. dollar weakened, commodity prices denominated in dollars generally improved. She particularly emphasized that when international gold prices rebounded to around $4,200 per ounce, commodity stocks led by Zijin Mining performed exceptionally well. In the latest column on January 6th, Niki further elaborated on this view. She clearly stated that central banks' continued increase in gold reserves and the surge in hedging demand due to geopolitical changes are the fundamental drivers for gold’s medium- to long-term strength.
In yesterday’s, the 13th, latest column, Niki shared: Actually, regarding precious metal-related stocks such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Jiangxi Copper, etc., my view remains relatively positive this year. As I mentioned in previous discussions, at the beginning of 2026, we will likely see some dynamics among major countries in terms of resources, which will probably continue to push up resource prices and even make precious metals a safe-haven asset. Therefore, I remain optimistic about gold prices. I remember sharing with Simon last year during our show that starting from mid-last year, I mentioned that international gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce; now they have reached $4,600 per ounce, very close to that target. So from a medium- to long-term perspective, it still looks promising.
Therefore, for investors, the simplest investment tool to participate in this market is stocks. Additionally, leveraging tools such as warrants can be considered. Over the past couple of years, with global volatility being relatively high, investors can allocate a portion of precious metals or commodities in their portfolios. After all, everyone experienced the trade disputes in April last year and saw the uncertainties involved. Over the next ten or twenty years, the global trade landscape may change and won’t be as free as before. Regionally, each area will place greater emphasis on nearby resource allocation, which will drive up resource prices. Investors should pay attention to these opportunities. Regarding product selection, related warrant instruments can be considered. For example, Zijin Mining call warrants can choose product code 21590, with an exercise price of 48.65 yuan, expiring in mid-April this year, offering leverage of approximately 7 times. Today, Hong Kong stocks pulled back slightly after a surge, and major tech stocks also experienced minor corrections, but precious metal stocks like these remained stable near recent highs, indicating relatively strong buying power. Column host Simon added from a technical perspective that if the upward trend continues, Zijin Mining may challenge 42.30 yuan in the short term.
This market perspective is strongly supported by the company's fundamentals. The company’s previously released earnings forecast shows that net profit for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to increase significantly by about 59% to 62%, reaching 51 to 52 billion yuan, demonstrating robust growth momentum. Zijin Mining Chairman Chen Jinghe pointed out in the official interpretation article that against the backdrop of increasing global uncertainty, the financial attributes of gold are continuously being elevated, and China's gold industry is entering a 'brand new golden era.' As a staunch practitioner of 'going global,' Zijin Mining holds nearly 4,000 tons of gold resources worldwide, with overseas project acquisition costs significantly lower than the global industry average, forming a unique competitive advantage.
Derivatives Review: Leveraging Trends
When the underlying stock exhibits a clear upward trend, the capital efficiency of derivatives becomes prominent. Looking back at several products mentioned on January 8, 2026, over the following two trading days, Zijin Mining's underlying stock rose cumulatively by 5.59%, while the performance of related derivative products far exceeded this figure.
Specifically, bull certificates performed extremely well: UBS Group Bull Certificate (62297) $UB#ZIJINRC2610C.C (62297.HK)$ and HSBC bull certificate (64068) $HS#ZIJINRC2611B.C (64068.HK)$ Prices surged by 42% and 39%, respectively. Call warrants also performed well: UBS call warrant (22176) and Bank of China call warrant (15329) both recorded a 33% increase. This reaffirms that in a one-sided trend, whether it is the structurally simple bull certificate or the call warrant with time value, its leverage effect can effectively amplify the volatility results of the underlying stock, providing investors with a more efficient way to participate.
Derivatives deployment strategy under the current market conditions: Focus on key technical levels
Based on the judgment that the share price is at a critical resistance level and facing overbought conditions, investors can choose products associated with support/resistance levels for deployment according to their views. The core advantage of derivatives lies in their leverage effect, which brings efficiency in capital utilization, as well as providing investors with flexibility to express both bullish and bearish views.
If optimistic about the continuation of the trend, one can focus on call warrants with strike prices close to resistance levels or bull certificates with stop-loss levels below strong support.
Investors who believe that the gold price logic will drive the share price to break through the resistance at 41.5 yuan may consider the following products.
* Guotai call warrant (24195) $GJZIJIN@EC2605A.C (24195.HK)$ and Huatai call warrant (21437): These two products have strike prices set at 48.02 yuan and 48 yuan, respectively, belonging to out-of-the-money warrants, offering approximately 5.5x and 5.4x actual leverage. Their strike prices are above the second resistance level of 44.9 yuan, making them suitable for betting on a share price breakout above the first resistance level, aiming for higher targets. Among them, Huatai call warrant (21437) has relatively lower premium and implied volatility.
* Bank of China bull certificate (66030) $BI#ZIJINRC2612A.C (66030.HK)$ and HSBC bull certificate (65598) $HS#ZIJINRC2611C.C (65598.HK)$ Both of these bull contracts have a call price set at HKD 35, offering approximately 6.4x and 6.3x effective leverage respectively. Their call prices are below the key support level of HKD 35.2, providing about a 13% safety buffer for the stock price. This setup aims to reduce the risk of hitting the call price due to normal technical pullbacks, making it suitable for speculating on a rebound near strong support levels.
If anticipating a technical pullback, high-leverage bear contracts can be considered.
Investors who predict that overbought pressure will lead to a stock price correction may want to pay attention to relevant products. The Societe Generale bear contract (65844) has a call price set at HKD 43, providing up to 12.2x effective leverage. Its call price is only slightly higher than the current stock price, leaving minimal buffer space. Therefore, it's only applicable in scenarios where one is very confident in a short-term bearish outlook and believes that the stock price will face clear resistance at its current high level, with an extremely high risk of forced recall.
#LearnWarrantsAndBullBearWithJenny# Key Analysis: How do “corporate actions” affect terms?
When investing in warrants (call options) and bull/bear contracts, “corporate actions” are a critical risk factor that must be understood. These refer to actions taken by the underlying company that alter its capital structure or shareholders' equity, such as special dividends, rights issues (share placements), stock splits, or consolidations. Such actions cause non-market-driven changes in the underlying stock price. To ensure fairness for derivative holders, issuers will adjust the terms of related products based on predetermined formulas outlined in the listing documents, ensuring that their theoretical value remains unchanged before and after the action.
The most common “corporate action” is dividend distribution. Typically, only unexpected special dividends trigger warrant term adjustments. For example, assuming Zijin Mining announces a substantial special cash dividend. After going ex-dividend, the underlying stock price will decrease accordingly. To hedge this impact, the issuer will lower the exercise price of this call warrant (e.g., from HKD 48.02), and proportionally increase its conversion ratio (i.e., the number of underlying shares each warrant can convert into). After adjustment, the theoretical total value of the call warrant is maintained. Similar adjustments will be made to the call price and conversion ratio of bull/bear contracts (such as BOC bull contract 66030). Investors must pay attention to relevant announcements, as the new terms after adjustment will directly impact the product’s leverage level and subsequent performance.
Amidst the frenzy of gold prices, trillion-dollar market capitalization, and strong fundamentals, Zijin Mining’s short-term trend has reached a critical juncture. Do you think the stock price will first consolidate to break through the resistance at HKD 41.5 and move towards HKD 44.9, or will it first retrace to key support areas at HKD 37.3 or even HKD 35.2 to digest pressures? After understanding the potential impact of “corporate actions” on terms, how would you combine key price levels to choose between aggressive out-of-the-money call warrants and more defensive bull contracts?
For analysis on Hong Kong stock warrants and bull/bear certificates, this is Jenny. See you again next time.
#ZijinMining #TechnicalAnalysis #SupportAndResistanceLevels #Gold #Warrants #BullBearContracts #CorporateActions #TrillionMarketCap #HKStocksStrategy #SafeHavenAssets
This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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