[Warrant Insights] Hang Seng Index rises 2.35% cumulatively, warrants surge up to 56%, uncovering the interconnection code

Based on the closing data from the previous day (January 13th): $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

The index closed at 26,848.47 points, up 0.90%, with a trading volume as high as 315.192 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility was 4.4%, and the probability of an upward movement was 52%. In terms of technical indicators, the Hang Seng Index RSI is at 65, which is in a moderately strong region, but the overall technical indicator summary signal is 'sell', with a signal strength of 9. The Williams %R indicator shows overbought conditions, the stochastic oscillator gives a sell signal, while the MACD suggests a buy. Multiple indicators are showing divergence. From a technical standpoint:The first support level for the Hang Seng Index is at 26,261 points, with a second support at 25,760 points; resistance levels are at 27,350 points and 27,831 points respectively, indicating that it is currently within a short-term oscillating uptrend range.

Individual stock performances were also active, particularly in the financial sector, $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ which closed at 126.4 yuan on January 13th, up 1.85%. However, the MACD signal indicates 'sell', reflecting weakening upward momentum; $AIA (01299.HK)$ another closed at 84.4 yuan, up 0.84%, with the RSI approaching overbought levels. Short-term resistance is located around the 87 yuan mark. On the tech side, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ one stock closed at 627.5 yuan, up slightly by 0.72%, with its RSI nearing the overbought zone, and multiple technical signals showing 'neutral'. The trading volume was as high as 15.224 billion yuan; $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ another stock closed at 159.9 yuan, with an increase of 3.63%. Some volatility indicators show overbought signals, suggesting caution for potential pullback pressures in the short term.

Overall, several blue-chip stocks have shown 'overbought' signals based on technical indicators, with significantly increased trading volumes, reflecting heightened market sentiment volatility and the need to be wary of short-term technical correction risks.

Reviewing the recent fluctuations of the Hang Seng Index, the warrant market's reaction has been extremely intense. Replaying the performance of the Hang Seng Index warrants on January 9, 2026, the index closed at 26,231.79 points, followed by a cumulative rise of 2.35% over the next two trading days, with related warrant gains showing exponential bursts. Among them, $BI#HSI RC28082.C (61588.HK)$ A surge of up to 61% in two days, $BI#HSI RC2808M.C (64324.HK)$ with gains of 56%; as for call warrants, $UB-HSI @EC2605B.C (23091.HK)$The increase reached 34% after two days, $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$ a rise of 33%, fully reflecting the leverage effect of derivative warrants: when the underlying stock rises slightly, derivative warrants can achieve excess returns with the help of leverage.

The logic behind this联动 is not complicated: when the underlying stock (or index) rises, call warrants and bull contracts will follow suit, and the higher the leverage, the greater the potential increase when the underlying stock moves in the same direction. From the perspective of key influencing factors, implied volatility plays an important role; the lower the implied volatility, the more stable the value of the derivative warrant. For example, the good performance of BOC call warrant (23128) is largely supported by its characteristic of having the lowest implied volatility. Additionally, the distance between the strike price and the underlying stock price is also crucial. The outstanding performance of the derivative warrants this time belongs to in-the-money or near-at-the-money varieties, which are more sensitive to fluctuations in the underlying stock.

Based on the current market situation, we have screened two relatively high-quality products from the derivative warrants pool for reference:

Fellow investors who already hold Hang Seng Index-related call warrants or bull contracts should set a profit-taking level to avoid having their gains eroded by technical adjustments; those who have not yet entered the market are advised against chasing recently sharply increased targets. Instead, they may focus on $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$ , which offers a leverage of 12.2 times, with a strike price of 28,341 points. Its core advantage lies in having the lowest implied volatility, which keeps risks relatively controllable during market fluctuations, making it a more 穩陣 choice.

Another alternative is $BI#HSI RC2808Z.C (64765.HK)$ , with a leverage of 25.6 times and a stop-loss level at 25,895 points, offering relatively low premium. If the Hang Seng Index can continue to hold above the support level, it has the potential to achieve good returns through leverage.

The main reason for selecting these two products is that there is currently significant divergence in market indicators. Products with low implied volatility and low premium effectively reduce volatility risk, making them more suitable for the current market conditions due to their lower-risk profile.

Risk Warning:Intraday volatility may be due to short-term speculative trading. If the Hang Seng Index lacks sustained volume support, its warrants could see a pullback at any time. Before entering a trade, make sure to check the warrant’s real-time premium and trading volume. Avoid choosing instruments with low liquidity or excessively high premiums to prevent liquidity risks that may hinder timely buying or selling.

Did you seize the warrant opportunity amid this recent uptrend of the Hang Seng Index? What is your view on whether the Hang Seng Index can break through the resistance level at 27,350 points?Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment section! Want more analysis? Don’t forget to follow ‘HK Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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