January 12 [HK Stocks Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, Baidu, China Mobile, AAC Technologies, Zijin Mining

1. Hang Seng Index: Bullish investors believe the index will reach 27,000 again and are holding bullish certificates with a recovery price of 25,688 points. Bearish investors mentioned that the heavy bear at 26,550 has been triggered, predicting a potential drop back to 26,300, and they will continue to hold bearish certificates overnight.

Simon: Hello everyone, let’s review the situation in the Hong Kong stock market. I believe today's (the 12th) performance of the Hang Seng Index will make investors relatively happy as after three consecutive days of adjustment last week, today showed signs of stabilization and recovery, with the closing price remaining above 26,600 points. Additionally, trading volume increased during this upward movement, leading some bullish investors to believe the Hang Seng could rise to 27,000 points, prompting them to continue holding bullish certificates. Meanwhile, some less optimistic investors still expect declines and will hold bearish certificates overnight. It is normal for markets to fluctuate, whether analyzing from the perspective of bull-bear certificate street data or general investment behavior, having both bullish and bearish opinions is quite common.

Therefore, we typically provide some data for both bullish and bearish investors, hoping to offer a reference point to understand where the current level may head and whether it aligns with their internal analysis. This is why we try to arrange an explanation session every day after the market closes, aiming to give everyone some data as a reference. Although the Hang Seng Index rose significantly today, according to the technical signal summary, the short-term outlook still favors 'selling,' with eight sell signals and six buy signals, giving a slight advantage to selling.

As previously mentioned, some investors believe the Hang Seng Index may rise to 27,000 points, but currently, the first resistance level at approximately 26,800 must be broken. If it can surpass 26,800, there indeed might be a chance to hit 27,000 or even higher, reaching around 27,400, serving as a reference point. Conversely, for bearish investors, if the Hang Seng adjusts, it might fall to 25,900 points, below 26,000, with the current support level at 25,900 points. If it breaks below 25,900, it could further drop to 25,600. Therefore, those planning to buy bullish certificates should consider products below 25,600, as the support level might really reach 25,600, making such products relatively safer.

Looking at products near 25,600 and 25,500 points, some have leverage up to 24x or even 24.4x, which is quite good compared to some near-price products. Of course, there are also some near-price products in the market with leverage reaching 26x, but their recovery prices are around 25,600 points, slightly closer. Therefore, choosing products around 25,500 allows you to achieve over 24x leverage while avoiding potential recovery positions, making it another excellent choice for your reference. $BI-HSI @EC2603A.C (21318.HK)$$JP-HSI @EC2603A.C (21186.HK)$$UB#HSI RC28118.C (61432.HK)$$BI#HSI RC2808T.C (61236.HK)$

2, Alibaba-W (09988.HK): Investors are asking if it’s ready for another leg up to reach 158 yuan? Holding bull certificates with a stop-loss at 131 yuan.

Simon: Next, let's look at individual stocks. The first one I want to share today (August 12) is Alibaba (9988). Alibaba had a pretty good run today, rising significantly and closing around 154.3 yuan, almost near the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, which can be considered a recent high. Today, Alibaba’s RSI indicator was relatively high, and trading volume supported the upward trend, so some investors are asking whether Alibaba has the potential to continue its rise, perhaps to around 158 yuan.

First, looking at the technical signal summary, Alibaba's current signal is 'neutral,' showing no clear direction. Although the daily chart is near the top of the Bollinger Band and the RSI is elevated, technical analysis signals remain inconclusive for now. However, in terms of resistance levels, there is potential to rise to around 158 yuan, as the immediate resistance level is at 158.3 yuan. If the price continues upward, it will depend on whether it can break through the 158.3 yuan mark.

If investors want to buy Alibaba's bull certificates while minimizing the risk of being stopped out, the short-term support level is around 147 yuan. If it breaks below 147 yuan, it could drop to 145 yuan. Therefore, choosing products with stop-losses below 145 yuan would be safer. Currently, there are many related products between 140 and 145 yuan on the market. For even more safety, products below 140 yuan are also available, with some offering leverage of over 8x, such as certain products around 138 yuan providing 8.1x or 8.3x leverage. Even products around 139 yuan offer more than 8x leverage, so selecting products with stop-losses at 138 yuan or 137 yuan provides several options worth considering. $HSALIBA@EC2604A.C (14334.HK)$$UB#ALIBARC2608I.C (55783.HK)$$UBALIBA@EC2603A.C (15566.HK)$$UB#ALIBARC26078.C (55119.HK)$

3, Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK): Kunlun chips have been listed. Investors are asking how much upside potential remains for the stock?

Simon: The next stock I want to discuss is Baidu (9888). Be careful not to confuse the stock code. Baidu’s share price rebounded significantly today (August 12), closing at 144.7 yuan. Its previous high was around 147.5 yuan, so the gap isn’t too large. Trading volume increased during today’s rally, although not as strongly as Alibaba’s. Some investors are asking about further upside potential and resistance levels if Baidu continues to rise.

Currently, Baidu’s resistance level is around 148.8 yuan. Breaking this level would surpass the recent high of approximately 147.5 yuan. If the momentum continues, breaking through 148.8 yuan could push the price toward 163.3 yuan, which is the next key resistance level. However, it should be noted that, according to the technical signal summary, Baidu currently shows a dominant 'sell' signal, with 8 sell signals versus 6 buy signals. This is something investors should keep in mind. $MSBAIDU@EC2603C.C (21055.HK)$$UB#BAIDURC2612I.C (66510.HK)$

4, China Mobile (00941.HK): It’s estimated that the downtrend won't stabilize until below 80 yuan. Can investors bottom-fish? Some investors are buying call warrants instead.

Simon: Moving on to the next stock, China Mobile (941). Investors watching China Mobile might feel somewhat disappointed, as its stock price has been trending downward recently. Although there was a brief rebound, it wasn’t a straight decline, but ultimately the price has formed lower lows. Today, China Mobile’s low reached 80.5 yuan, leading some investors to worry if it will fall below 80 yuan. Additionally, trading volume increased during the downturn, making investors concerned about the stock's future movement. Some are asking if China Mobile will need to drop below 80 yuan to stabilize, and some are even considering whether they should invest in related call warrants.

From a technical perspective, if China Mobile continues to fall, it may indeed break below 80 yuan, potentially dropping to 78 yuan or, if the decline deepens, even to 74.7 yuan — something to watch closely. According to the technical signal summary, China Mobile currently shows a growing 'buy' signal, making it logically reasonable from a technical standpoint to consider purchasing call warrants.

However, from a product perspective, if you want to choose products that are about 10% out-of-the-money, there aren't many suitable products currently available in the market. Although there is buying signal support in terms of direction, the out-of-the-money levels for related products are relatively high at present. The strike price for suitable products is around 92 yuan, and most of these products expire by the end of March this year, making them short-term products. Therefore, there aren’t many good call warrant choices right now. On the other hand, if you consider bull contracts, there are some options available, such as those with a recovery price around 70 or 71 yuan. There are relevant products in the market to choose from. If investors are optimistic about China Mobile and can bear the risk, they may also consider these products as a reference. $BI-CMOB@EP2604A.P (21625.HK)$$CI-CMOB@EP2604A.P (21480.HK)$

5. AAC Technologies (02018.HK): Investors asked whether 37 yuan would be a good entry point. Some investors believe that breaking through 40 yuan could initiate a new upward trend. They hold call warrants with a strike price of 54.04 yuan.

Simon: After AAC Technologies' four-day decline, today (the 12th) saw a slight rebound with trading volume supporting the upward movement, closing at 39.24 yuan. Investors have asked whether AAC Technologies might have an opportunity to rise to 37 yuan or even break through 40 yuan.

In terms of resistance levels, AAC Technologies’ current short-term resistance level is at 40 yuan. If it breaks through 40 yuan, the next resistance level will be at 41.3 yuan. For support levels, it’s currently around 38 yuan, and if it falls below 38 yuan, the price may drop to around 37 yuan. Therefore, if investors want to make short-term moves, it might be more appropriate to wait until the stock price pulls back to around 37 yuan or slightly lower before taking action. Overall, technical signals suggest that “buy” signals have a slight advantage, indicating a positive outlook, but waiting for a pullback to around 37 yuan would be a safer bet.

However, looking at the CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), due to AAC Technologies' recent sharp price decline, which has brought the price near 40 yuan, there aren’t many suitable derivative products on the market, especially few at-the-money products. Investors who previously held AAC Technologies call warrants may need to endure a longer period of correction. It is important to pay attention to the expiration time of the products they hold. If the remaining maturity is half a year or more, the situation will be relatively better since the time decay can slowly offset, and the daily loss won’t be too large. However, for short-term products, careful consideration is needed because even if the stock price consolidates, the impact of time value decay could still lead to a drop in the product's price. This is something everyone should be aware of. $UB-AAC @EP2609A.P (19352.HK)$$JP-AAC @EP2609A.P (21033.HK)$

1. Zijin Mining (02899.HK): Investors noted that the supply-demand gap for copper is widening. Can Zijin Mining's share price reach 50 yuan? They hold call warrants with a strike price of 50.99 yuan.

Simon: Finally, let’s look at Zijin Mining (2899). Zijin Mining closed today (the 12th) at 39.28 yuan, with trading volume slightly increasing compared to the previous trading day, and the RSI indicator starting to approach the 80 level. Investors asked whether Zijin Mining's share price has the potential to rise above 50 yuan. To reach 50 yuan, Zijin Mining would need to break through multiple resistance levels; the first one is at 40.6 yuan, and if it breaks through that, the next resistance level is at 43.8 yuan. So for investors targeting a 50-yuan price, it may take a longer time, and it might not happen quickly. This is provided as a reference for everyone.

If you’re interested in Zijin Mining’s call warrants, there are currently around seven at-the-money products available in the market, with strike prices approximately 7% out-of-the-money. Some of these products offer decent leverage, reaching up to 5.9 times, and their premiums are relatively low. The implied volatility among these seven products is also at a reasonable level. Therefore, if you're considering investing in Zijin Mining’s call warrants, you might want to focus on slightly at-the-money products, as out-of-the-money products require a longer waiting period. Of course, out-of-the-money products may provide higher leverage, but given the current market conditions, some slightly at-the-money products offer leverage of around 5.8 or 5.9 times, which isn’t significantly lower than out-of-the-money products.

So, I’d like to remind investors that when analyzing market products, don’t assume that the further out-of-the-money a product is, the better its leverage. Sometimes, products that are slightly at-the-money in the market can offer decent leverage as well. Feel free to compare different products. If you have any questions, feel free to consult our colleagues, who will be happy to provide references regarding these products.

That concludes today’s sharing. Thank you all for participating. We will meet again at the same time tomorrow to discuss the latest updates on Hong Kong stocks. Goodbye!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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