[Warrant Perspective] Short-term Analysis of Nio: Is This a Technical Rebound for EV Stocks? Buy Signals Appear in Oversold Range

Nio (09866) showed steady performance this morning. As of 13:00, the share price was HKD 37.08, down HKD 0.08 from the previous close, representing a decline of 0.22%. The stock opened at HKD 36.86 today, with an intraday high of HKD 37.16 and a low of HKD 36.36, resulting in a fluctuation range of 2.15%. Its total market capitalization is approximately HKD 91.372 billion. Both the TTM and static P/E ratios are in a loss-making state, and the price-to-book ratio is 22.734. Additionally, the turnover rate was 0.09%, with a trading volume of HKD 78.1953 million.

The technical trend shows characteristics of bottoming out. A summary of technical indicators reveals a strong 'buy' signal with a strength level as high as 12, where multiple key indicators have shown clear signs of strengthening. The Williams %R indicator signals 'oversold condition, buy signal,' while the Stochastic Oscillator also issues a 'buy signal.' Furthermore, the Momentum Oscillator exhibits a 'bottom divergence, buy' technical pattern, reflecting that after a deep correction, the foundation for a technical rebound is quite solid. However, the overall trend indicator remains weak, with Bollinger Bands showing a 'sell,' indicating that further breakthroughs are needed to confirm an upward trend.

In terms of key position deployment, HKD 35.9 has become a recent critical support level, with the next line of defense at HKD 33. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at HKD 39.2, and a breakout could lead to testing the HKD 41.2 level. Nio is currently consolidating near the HKD 37 mark. Do you think this represents the beginning of valuation recovery for the EV sector or reflects specific positives such as improved delivery volumes and financial conditions? Could the new model cycle and expansion of the battery swapping network act as dual catalysts for a share price rebound?

If you are optimistic about Nio’s technical rebound, consider call warrants 17588 issued by Societe Generale, offering 3.2x leverage with an exercise price of HKD 34.71; or 17828 issued by J.P. Morgan, providing 3.1x leverage with the same exercise price of HKD 34.71.

Investors who are bearish may consider Citi's put warrant 19600 $CT-NIO @EP2605A.P (19600.HK)$ , which offers 2.2x leverage with a strike price of HKD 32.2; or HSBC's put warrant 19268. $HS-NIO @EP2605A.P (19268.HK)$, offering 2.3x leverage with a strike price of $32.16. However, it's important to note that Nio’s technical indicators have shown strong rebound signals, and the risk for short positions is increasing.

Reviewing product performance on the 6th of this month, short products recorded returns at that time. Citi put warrants 19600$CT-NIO @EP2605A.P (19600.HK)$Citi put warrants and HSBC put warrants 19268$HS-NIO @EP2605A.P (19268.HK)$Both gained 6% cumulatively over two days, showing that inverse products can play a hedging role in volatile markets.

Nio has demonstrated technical support at the $37 level. What do you think about the sustainability of this rebound? Between premium brand positioning and profitability roadmap, which factor influences your judgment on Nio’s prospects more? Feel free to share your unique insights on the investment value of electric vehicle stocks!

This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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