November PPI higher than expected! How to view the interest rate cut prospects for 2026?

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Weekly Outlook | Action-Packed! US Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs Looms, Government Shutdown Risk Heats Up Again; Beige Book + CPI Data Incoming, Geopolitical Tensions Flaring; Major Banks Kick Off US Q4 Earnings Season, Taiwan Semiconductor's Report Could Be a Showstopper!

Next week, the US CPI and PPI, along with China's import and export data, will be released. The December Consumer Price Index (CPI), to be announced on Tuesday, is particularly crucial as it will be the most important inflation reference indicator before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting at the end of January. The November PPI data, to be released next Wednesday, will provide clues about upstream inflation pressure; the same day, the release of November retail sales data will reflect the resilience of consumer spending. The Fed will also issue its latest Beige Book.

In terms of earnings reports, Taiwan Semiconductor’s performance will directly validate global AI demand, marking the start of the US stock earnings season, led by JPMorgan in the financial sector. On the event front, the US Supreme Court may announce a tariff ruling next Wednesday, while the risk of a US government shutdown looms again, requiring close attention to developments next week. Additionally, the G7 meeting will discuss rare earths, and conferences on China’s nuclear fusion and AIGC will be held. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to rise, with Iran's situation drawing significant attention from all sides.

Key Schedule Highlights

The US Supreme Court has postponed its ruling on Trump's tariff case, with the next decision scheduled for January 14th.

On January 9 local time, the US Supreme Court stated that it would not issue a ruling on the Trump administration tariff case on that day. After taking office in 2025, the Trump administration invoked the US International Emergency Economic Powers Act to introduce a series of tariff measures without congressional approval by issuing executive orders directly. The US Federal Supreme Court had previously announced that it would rule on the legality of the tariff policy on January 9.

The US Supreme Court completed the work of disclosing opinions on Friday but did not announce the ruling on Trump's tariffs. There had been speculation that the decision might be announced on Friday, but no decision was made. It remains unclear when the final ruling will be issued. The US Supreme Court stated that next Wednesday, January 14th, would be the next date for announcing decisions.

The risk of another US government shutdown at the end of the month is rising, with relevant appropriations bills to be submitted to the Senate for review next week.

US government funding is running out again, increasing the risk of another shutdown at the end of the month.To avoid a government shutdown after January 30, the US Congress is accelerating the advancement of appropriation legislation. According to CCTV News,the House of Representatives has passed three appropriation bills, which will enter the Senate review stage next week.This phase has become the focus of market attention, and its progress will directly determine the level of shutdown risk at the end of the month. If the Senate can pass quickly, it will effectively stabilize market sentiment.

Specifically, these three passed appropriation bills are referred to as the 'minibus' spending package, which will provide funding for the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Justice, water conservancy projects, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and federal scientific research programs, covering until the end of this fiscal year. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate could review the appropriation package as early as next week.

Michael Townsend, Managing Director of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Charles Schwab, stated:“Time is very tight, and the possibility of a shutdown cannot be ruled out, but congressional negotiations to avoid a shutdown seem to be making progress.”

Fed officials to speak intensively next week; Fed releases economic condition 'Beige Book'

A large number of Fed officials will speak next week, providing investors with more clues. Permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mosalem, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, and 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will all deliver speeches.

On Wednesday, January 14, the Federal Reserve released the latest Beige Book survey on regional economic conditions. The November Beige Book showed that government shutdowns and the application of AI led to a weak job market, while rising tariffs and medical insurance costs pushed up business expenses, potentially exacerbating inflation concerns. Consumer K-shaped divergence intensified, with high-income consumer spending remaining resilient, but middle- and low-income families 'tightening their belts'.

CPI takes center stage, a 'call to arms' for dollar bulls?

At 21:30 on Tuesday, the US December CPI report will be released.The report is expected to show that inflation remains high, supporting the Fed’s pause in action. Analyst Eren Sengezer stated that the December CPI data is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Fed's January decision. However, if it deviates significantly from market expectations (especially the core CPI month-over-month rate), it may trigger market reactions. If the month-over-month rate comes in at 0.3% or higher, it could reignite market concerns about sticky inflation and boost the US dollar in the short term. Conversely, if the reading is below 0.2%, it may have the opposite effect on the US dollar's performance and drive a slight increase in international spot gold.

Following the CPI, two key US economic data releases are also due: the October and November PPI, and November retail sales.The market expects that the month-over-month growth rate of core PPI for these two months may remain at a relatively moderate level. Additionally, Bloomberg forecasts that overall retail sales in November will rebound by 0.7% month-over-month after being flat in October. This rebound would be primarily driven by a modest recovery in auto sales following a sharp drop caused by the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, as well as sustained strong online transactions during 'Black Friday' and 'Cyber Monday'.

Geopolitical powder keg smoking + commodity index rebalancing: Opportunity or trap for gold and silver?

Investors will closely monitor geopolitical headlines next week.US Secretary of State Rubio plans to meet with officials from Denmark and Greenland.In an interview with The New York Times, Trump reiterated his intention to take over Greenland. “Ownership is very important,” Trump told the newspaper. It’s hard to predict the next steps, but if tensions escalate between the EU and the US, it could lead investors to seek safe havens. In this scenario, international spot gold may gather upward momentum.

In addition,The unrest triggered by anti-government protests across Iran, including in the capital Tehran, could also affect market risk sentiment in the short term.Trump said that if Iranian authorities use lethal force against protesters, the US might take military action against Iran. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated: “The US and Israel have already tested attacks on Iran, which failed completely both in terms of execution and strategy. If they repeat the same mistake, they will face the same outcome.” He added that while Iran does not want war, it is prepared. A deepening conflict in Iran, with active US involvement, could continue to benefit international spot gold through inflows of safe-haven funds.

Next week, gold and silver will face another annual event disturbance:The annual rebalancing of major commodity indices such as the S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may lead to substantial sell-offs in gold and silver futures.

G7 Meeting to Discuss Rare Earths, China’s Nuclear Fusion, and the AIGC Conference

On January 12, the G7 finance ministers will meet in Washington to discuss rare earth issues.

The 2026 Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference will be held from January 16 to 17 in Hefei, Anhui, being one of the highest-profile and most influential technology and industry events in the field of fusion energy for 2026. Additionally, China's nuclear energy sector is set to implement its first foundational and comprehensive law. On September 12, the 'Atomic Energy Law of the People's Republic of China' (hereinafter referred to as the 'Atomic Energy Law') was passed by the 17th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China, and it was announced that it would come into effect on January 15, 2026.

The 5th AIGC China Developer Conference will be held in Beijing on January 17. The 2nd China eVTOL Innovation Development Conference will take place in Shanghai from January 15 to 16. The Detroit Auto Show opens and runs until January 25.

Corporate Earnings: The US earnings season kicks off; can the S&P break through the 7,000-point mark?

The US Q4 earnings season has begun, $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ 、 $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ 、 $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ 、 $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ with major Wall Street banks like JPMorgan set to release results next week. Analysts expect the financial sector’s Q4 profits to grow by about 7% year-over-year.

The global semiconductor foundry leader $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$will also make a significant appearance on January 15. With the rise in AI chip demand and the recovery of the semiconductor cycle in the second half of 2025, expectations are high for its Q4 revenue growth and advanced process capacity utilization. Its guidance on 2026 capital expenditures and AI chip orders will directly impact the direction of the semiconductor sector at the beginning of the year.

After a strong start to trading in 2026, the S&P 500 index is approaching the 7,000 level, while the Dow is nearing the 50,000 mark. Will the Q4 earnings season help the S&P 500 break through 7,000 points?

Key earnings calendar for the new week

Further Reading:[Prize] Q4 earnings season kicks off! US bank stocks + Taiwan Semiconductor start simultaneously, a quick recap of the week's performance (1.12-1.16)

Monday (January 12)

Keywords: G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting, GigaDevice Innovation grey market

In terms of economic data,No particularly significant economic data.

16:00 Switzerland December Consumer Confidence Index

17:30 Eurozone January Sentix Investor Confidence Index

In terms of financial events,The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting will be held at a time to be determined, where rare earth issues will be discussed.

To be determined: G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting

On the earnings front, $Sify Technologies (SIFY.US)$ Earnings will be released before the US stock market opens.$Wealthfront (WLTH.US)$ Earnings will be released after the US stock market closes.

In terms of new stocks,$HX COLDCHAIN (01641.HK)$ 、 $GIGADEVICE (03986.HK)$ 、 $BBSB INTL (08610.HK)$Dark pool trading will take place from 16:15 to 18:30 on January 12. $OMNIVISION (00501.HK)$ Start trading.

Regarding market holidays,US-CME Group's US Treasury futures contracts trading begins at 15:00 Beijing time.

Tuesday (January 13)

Keywords: US December CPI, Fed Williams speech, JPMorgan earnings, GigaDevice listing

In terms of economic data, investors can focus on the US December CPI data。

02:00 US 10-Year Treasury Auction - Bid-to-Cover Ratio, US 10-Year Treasury Auction to January 12 - Successful Bid Rate

07:50 Japan's November Trade Balance (in billion yen)

19:00 US December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

21:30 US December Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year, US December Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-over-Month, US December Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI Month-over-Month, US December Unadjusted Core CPI Year-over-Year

23:00 US October Annualized New Home Sales (in ten thousand units)

In terms of financial events,Williams, Permanent FOMC voter and President of the New York Fed, will deliver a speech.

01:30 Bostic, 2027 FOMC voter and President of the Atlanta Fed, will deliver a speech.

01:45 Barkin, 2027 FOMC voter and President of the Richmond Fed, will deliver a speech.

07:00 Williams, Permanent FOMC voter and President of the New York Fed, will deliver a speech.

23:00 FOMC voter for 2028 and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks.

On the earnings front, $Bank of New York Mellon (BNY.US)$ 、 $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ 、 $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ Earnings will be released pre-market US hours.

In terms of new stocks,$HX COLDCHAIN (01641.HK)$ 、 $GIGADEVICE (03986.HK)$ 、 $BBSB INTL (08610.HK)$Will officially list on January 13.

Wednesday (January 14)

Keywords: US November retail sales month-over-month, November PPI, Bank of America/Wells Fargo/Citi earnings

In terms of economic data,Pay attention to the US November retail sales month-over-month, November PPI year-over-year and month-over-month.

05:30 US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 (in million barrels)

21:30 US November retail sales month-over-month, US November PPI year-over-year, US November PPI month-over-month, US Q3 current account (in billion USD)

23:00 US October business inventories month-over-month, US December annualized existing home sales total (in hundred thousand units)

23:30 US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 (in million barrels), US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 (in million barrels), US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending January 9 (in million barrels)

Pending China's December trade balance in USD (in billion USD) and China's December trade balance (in billion CNY).

In terms of financial events,FOMC voter for 2026 and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson to deliver a speech on the economic outlook; EIA to release the Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

01:00 EIA to release the Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

05:00 FOMC voter for 2027 and Richmond Fed President Barkin to deliver a speech.

22:50 FOMC voter for 2026 and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson to deliver a speech on the economic outlook.

23:00 Federal Reserve Governor Milan to deliver a speech in Athens.

Pending OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (the exact release time is to be determined, typically published between 18:00-21:00 Beijing Time).

On the earnings front, $WS-SK TARGET (08427.HK)$ Will announce earnings. $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ 、 $Citigroup (C.US)$ 、 $RedCloud (RCT.US)$ 、 $United Community Banks (UCB.US)$ 、 $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ Will announce earnings before the US stock market opens. $H.B. Fuller (FUL.US)$$Home BancShares (HOMB.US)$ Will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.

Thursday (January 15th)

Key events: US Initial Jobless Claims, Fed's Beige Book, Goldman Sachs/Taiwan Semiconductor earnings

In terms of economic data,The Eurozone will release the seasonally adjusted trade balance for November, and the US will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10.

15:00 UK GDP monthly rate for the three months ending November, UK manufacturing output monthly rate for November, UK seasonally adjusted trade balance in goods (in billion GBP), UK industrial output monthly rate for November

15:45 France CPI final value for December

17:00 Germany’s full-year GDP growth forecast for 2025

18:00 Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade balance for November (in billion EUR), Eurozone industrial production monthly rate for November

21:30 US initial jobless claims (in ten thousand) for the week ending January 10, US New York Fed Manufacturing Index for January, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January, US import price index monthly rate for November

23:30 US EIA natural gas inventory (in billion cubic feet) for the week ending January 9

In terms of financial events,The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.

01:00 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari to deliver a speech. 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic to deliver a speech.

03:00 The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions.

03:10 Permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams to give opening remarks at an event.

17:00 The European Central Bank releases its economic bulletin.

21:35 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic to deliver a speech.

TBD US and Japanese Defense Ministers hold a summit in Washington.

In terms of performance, $PUBLIC FIN HOLD (00626.HK)$ will announce earnings, $Blackrock (BLK.US)$ 、 $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ 、 $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ 、 $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ will announce earnings pre-market, $WaFd (WAFD.US)$ will announce earnings post-market.

Friday (January 16th)

Keywords: US December Industrial Production MoM, State Street Bank earnings

In terms of economic data,The US will release the December industrial production MoM.

15:00 Germany December CPI MoM Final

22:15 US December Industrial Production MoM

23:00 US January NAHB Housing Market Index

In terms of financial events,Barkin will make public remarks.

01:40 Barkin, 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President, will speak on the economic outlook of Virginia.

On the earnings front, $INDIGO STAR (08373.HK)$ will announce earnings, $M&T Bank (MTB.US)$ 、 $Regions Financial (RF.US)$ 、 $State Street (STT.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, $BOK Financial (BOKF.US)$ will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.

Stay ahead with key financial events and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > U.S. Stocks >Economic Calendar/Key Macroeconomic Data, Seize Investment Opportunities Ahead!

A new week begins. Wishing all fellow investors successful investments!

Editor/Doris

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