Inflation heats up, central banks turn hawkish! Is the wind changing for gold prices?
January 11, 2026 Gold
ð Current Trend Commentary
1. Price Performance
  · Current price 4518.4, up +57.7 (+1.29%), showing short-term strength.
  · Price has broken through EMA10 (4451.75) and EMA20 (4403.27), and is significantly above the long-term moving average (e.g., EMA200: 3732.68), presenting a bullish alignment.
2. WOW Trend Analysis
  · Trend 1: 4301.41 (recent support)
Trend 2: 4541.14 (near-term resistance)
The current price is between the two levels and is attempting to challenge the upper resistance at 4541.14; if it breaks through, it may rise further.
The key support below is 4301.41; if it breaks down, the short-term trend may weaken.
3. WAH Market Participation Analysis
MM (Major Player Participation): 81.525 â Extremely high value indicating strong participation by major players, driving robust upward momentum.
RETAIL (Retail Participation): 0.097 â Very low value showing limited retail investor involvement, suggesting that the rally is mainly driven by institutional funds, making the trend healthier.
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ð® Future Direction Forecast
Short-term (1-2 weeks)
If the price successfully breaks through WOW Trend 2 (4541.14), the next target could be the 4600â4650 range.
If it fails to break through, it may consolidate within the 4450â4540 range.
Medium-term (1-3 months)
If the price continues to hold above the EMA20 and the MM in WAH remains high, the uptrend is expected to continue.
Be cautious: if MM participation drops sharply or the price falls below 4301.41, a deeper pullback may occur.
Risk Warning
The current price is close to the WOW Trend 2 resistance level; a technical pullback may occur in the short term.
It is recommended to monitor whether trading volume supports the upward movement; be cautious if the price rises on shrinking volume.
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Summary and Suggestions
Maintain a bullish view, but avoid chasing highs recklessly. Consider scaling into positions during pullbacks to the EMA10 or near 4450.
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$Value Gold ETF (03081.HK)$
A breakout above 4541.14 can be considered a signal to add positions.
Suggest setting a stop-loss below 4300 to guard against trend reversal.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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