Wall Street Daily (January 10): US stocks closed higher across the board on Friday, boosted by non-farm payroll data; the market showed a 'multi-faceted' rally; gold and crude oil remained strong.

[Summary] US stocks closed higher across the board on Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, Nasdaq climbed 0.81%, Dow Jones gained 0.48%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index advanced 0.78%. In the short term, the rise in US stocks is no longer overly reliant on a few heavyweight stocks, with market breadth expanding and the overall trend closer to a 'multi-faceted' rally. The December non-farm payroll report was generally 'moderate,' boosting market sentiment. Structurally, employment grew by only 50,000, significantly below market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, with average hourly earnings rising 3.8% year-over-year, surpassing expectations. The market believes that the U.S. economy has not yet weakened significantly, while monetary policy still has room for adjustment. In major asset classes, gold rose 0.72% to around $4,500, with the People’s Bank of China purchasing for 14 consecutive months; crude oil gained 0.65% to $58, marking its third consecutive weekly increase as Trump threatened a 'strong response' if the Iranian government cracked down on protesters, exacerbating supply concerns; the US Dollar Index edged up 0.30%, while Bitcoin fell slightly by 0.50%.

I. Major Events

1. December Non-Farm Payroll Report: Weak Job Growth but Unexpected Drop in Unemployment Rate

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December employment report: non-farm payrolls increased by only 50,000, below expectations of 60,000-70,000, making it one of the weakest single-month figures since 2025. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.5% to 4.4%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.8% year-over-year, both better than expected. Overall, weaker-than-expected job growth eased market fears about prolonged high interest rates, while the resilience in unemployment and wage growth somewhat stabilized confidence in the economic fundamentals. This combination of 'not triggering recession fears while not suppressing rate cut expectations' became a key backdrop for driving stock indices higher.

2. Supreme Court Delays Tariff Ruling, Leaving Approximately $150 Billion in Tax Revenue in Limbo

The U.S. Supreme Court skipped its first opinion release day of 2026, failing to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. Over a thousand companies have sued the government seeking refunds of paid tariffs, involving amounts of approximately $150 billion to $200 billion. The next opinion release date is January 14, and investors are closely watching whether this ruling will have any material impact on the direction of U.S. trade policy and corporate cost expectations.

3. NEC Director Hassett defends the employment report

Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, defended the December employment report on Fox Business on January 9: 'We have cut federal government jobs by 250,000 this year, and we are deporting illegal immigrants... If you consider these factors, the expected employment figure for a strong month should be closer to what we have seen.' Trump said in a Wall Street Journal interview that former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Hassett are the top candidates for the position of Fed Chairman. Polymarket odds show Hassett leading with a 68% probability. Hassett also hinted at 'very good news' for homebuyers and predicted that 2026 would see 'the largest tax refund season in history.'

II. Major Trends

From a three-month perspective, market sentiment still favors traditional sectors: the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 5.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 is up only 2.59%. This indicates that investors’ pursuit of highly valued growth stocks has cooled somewhat, and they are now looking for certainty in more cyclical sectors such as industrials.

In the short term, the structure since the beginning of 2026 looks more like a 'rebalancing': mid-cap ETF (MDY) surged over 4% in the first three trading days, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) continued to strengthen and hit new highs; meanwhile, overseas markets performed no worse than U.S. tech leaders. The expansion of market breadth means that the rally is no longer overly reliant on a few heavyweight stocks, making it closer to a 'multi-faceted' progression.

III. Market Sentiment

Panic sentiment has significantly subsided. The VIX panic index plunged 6.21% to 14.49, returning to a low range; the CNN Fear & Greed Index rose from 47 to 51, moving back to neutral-positive territory. In the options market, the CBOE stock Put/Call ratio remained at a relatively low level of 0.49, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. It's worth noting that historically, when the Put/Call ratio is low, it sometimes signals increased short-term volatility risk, but the current market shows characteristics of sector rotation and improved breadth, so the sentiment recovery doesn't seem 'thin.'

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led with a 1.00% gain, while the Dow ETF (DIA) lagged slightly at 0.51%. Tech stocks rebounded, driving the Nasdaq to outperform the Dow, but over a three-month horizon, the Dow still leads with a 5.16% gain compared to the Nasdaq’s 2.59%, indicating that the style rotation remains intact. The Russell 2000 small-cap index (IWM) rose 0.76%, continuing its strong start to the year, showing that small- and mid-caps continue to attract fresh capital.

2. Industry Sectors

The materials sector (XLB) led gains with a 1.60% rise, extending its recent strength, supported by rising metal prices and infrastructure expectations, maintaining ample momentum. The tech sector (XLK) climbed 1.32%, primarily driven by Tesla's rebound. Utilities (XLU) gained 1.24%, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) rose 1.21%, Industrials (XLI) gained 1.10%, and Consumer Staples (XLP) was up 1.03%. Most sectors rose more than 1%, presenting a typical broad-based rally. The healthcare sector (XLV) bucked the trend, falling 0.51% to finish at the bottom; however, based on cumulative performance in the first three trading days of the year, XLV still rose 2.25%, outperforming the tech sector year-to-date.

3. Seven Major Tech Stocks

Tesla (TSLA) led gains with a 2.11% rise, continuing its technical rebound, with a market cap reaching $1.48 trillion. Netflix (NFLX) led declines with a 1.18% drop, mainly pressured by uncertainties related to mergers and acquisitions and regulation: its $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery faces antitrust review, and it must also contend with Paramount’s $108 billion hostile takeover bid. CFRA downgraded its rating to Hold and reduced the target price from $130 to $100.

4. Chinese概念股

Bilibili (BILI) rose 1.85%, accumulating a 16.5% gain year-to-date, significantly outperforming the sector average; Zacks assigned it a 'Buy' rating. Alibaba (BABA) fell 2.27%. Several brokerages lowered their target prices (Jefferies from $231 to $225, Morgan Stanley from $200 to $180), and the market remains sensitive to slower e-commerce growth and the $53 billion three-year AI investment plan's impact on profitability; following a 5.3% surge the previous day, some profit-taking also occurred.

5. Cryptocurrencies and related stocks

Bitcoin’s latest quote was approximately $90,641 (Eastern Time 16:00), down 0.5% for the day, continuing its volatile trend. Circle (CRCL) rose 1.36%, showing relatively stable movement. MicroStrategy (MSTR) plummeted 5.77%, hitting a 52-week low of $151.95, retreating over 65% from its peak. Although MSCI announced it would not exclude digital asset companies from indices (thereby avoiding an estimated $8.8 billion passive selling shock), Bitcoin's decline from its October high of $126,000 continues to weigh on company valuations, with Q4 unrealized losses reaching $17.4 billion.

$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$ $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ $BTC/USD (BTCUSD.CC)$ $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ $ETH/USD (ETHUSD.CC)$ $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Netflix (NFLX.US)$

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