Short-term Analysis of Zijin Mining (02899.HK): Technical Dynamics Amid Gold Prices and Trillion Market Cap

$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$ Zijin Mining’s share price stands at HK$38.36, up 3.12%. Recently, the stock hit a record high, with both its A-share and H-share combined market capitalization surpassing the trillion-dollar mark, making it a focal point in the market. This milestone achievement signifies market recognition of the company’s new growth logic—transitioning from being driven by 'gold and copper' to now being propelled by 'gold, copper, and lithium.' The company’s recent earnings forecast indicates that net profits for 2025 are expected to reach between RMB 51 billion and RMB 52 billion, marking an increase of approximately 59% to 62% year-on-year. Entering 2026, the company plans to produce 105 tons of gold, 1.2 million tons of copper, and 120,000 tons of equivalent lithium carbonate, demonstrating robust growth momentum. Market analysis suggests that apart from gold’s safe-haven demand and copper's widespread application in the new energy sector, the company’s rapidly expanding lithium resources division (now among the top ten globally) is paving the way for a second growth curve in the new energy era, forming the basis of its long-term investment value.

[BOC Guest Column] Commentary: Gold’s Long-Term Bullish Trend and Derivatives Strategies

In the January 6 edition of [BOC Guest Column], Niki, Director of BOC International, provided an in-depth analysis of Zijin Mining and the underlying gold dynamics. She highlighted that central banks’ continued accumulation of gold reserves and investors’ safe-haven needs amid shifting international conditions are the primary drivers of gold’s mid- to long-term upward trend. Niki reiterated her optimistic outlook on gold prices and expressed bullishness on all gold-related stocks. Regarding Zijin Mining’s continuous record-breaking performance, she offered strategies for investors to leverage derivatives to participate in the market trend. For example, she mentioned BOC-issued call warrants like 21590, which have an exercise price of HK$48.60 and offer about 7x leverage, suitable for investors bullish on the stock. Simon, the host, added technical observations, noting that if the uptrend continues, Zijin Mining could potentially test the level near HK$42.30 in the short term. This implies that if investors consider exercising warrants such as 21590 with an exercise price of HK$48.60... $BIZIJIN@EC2604B.C (21590.HK)$ , they may need to hold their positions longer to wait for the stock price to reach the target. This highlights the importance of considering time horizons when selecting derivatives.

January 6th [BOC Guest] Hang Seng Index, Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, CICC, Cathay Pacific Haitong, Li Ning

Technical Analysis: Key Resistance Levels and Pullback Risks in a Strong Trend

From a technical indicator perspective, Zijin Mining is currently in a clear strong trend, but some indicators suggest that short-term volatility may be on the horizon. According to a comprehensive analysis by Investing.com as of January 6, Zijin Mining received a 'Strong Buy' overall technical rating. Its share price is firmly above all major moving averages (from MA10 to MA200), and most moving averages are showing 'buy' signals, indicating a stable bullish alignment with a positive mid-term trend. Momentum indicators such as MACD and CCI also generally indicate buy signals. However, some details are worth noting: the current RSI reading is approximately 65, which, although not in the extreme overbought zone, is already in a strong range. The stochastic oscillator indicates an 'overbought condition,' usually signaling that short-term prices may need a technical correction or consolidation. The summary of technical indicators suggests a 'sell' signal, but with only a strength of 8, reflecting the contradiction between short-term pullback pressure and a strengthening long-term trend.

Therefore, a clear analysis of key price levels is crucial as it provides precise reference points for short-term operations. Based on technical data, the primary resistance level currently stands at 39.70 yuan, which is the next important hurdle after the stock attempts to surpass the trillion-yuan market cap. If this resistance can be effectively breached, the upward potential will further expand, with the next target pointing towards the second resistance level at 42.40 yuan. Below, the support system forms a buffer for any share price pullbacks, with the first support level located at 35.80 yuan and a more critical strong support at 34.20 yuan. Considering the significant recent gains, there is a possibility that the share price might test the 35.80 yuan support level before or after challenging the 39.70 yuan resistance level.

Review of Warrants: Leverage Effect in Trends

Historical data once again confirms that when the underlying stock shows a clear upward trend, derivatives can effectively amplify investment returns. In the two days following January 7, 2026, when Zijin Mining's underlying stock recorded about a 1.00% increase, its linked bullish derivatives performed even more prominently. Citi call warrants (22889) $CTZIJIN@EC2605A.C (22889.HK)$ surged by 10%, while two bull contracts—HSBC Bull (64068) and UBS Group Bull (62297) $UB#ZIJINRC2610C.C (62297.HK)$ rose by 8% and 5%, respectively. Compared to direct investment in the underlying stock, the core advantage of warrants and bull/bear contracts lies in their capital efficiency. Investors don’t need to pay the full amount for the underlying stock but can track its performance through these products, thereby flexibly allocating more funds across different strategies. At the same time, these tools provide the convenience of going both long and short, allowing investors to express views regardless of market direction, and also offering possibilities for hedging portfolio risks.

Current Recommendations and Terms Analysis for Warrants and Bull/Bear Contracts

For investors who remain bullish on gold prices and the company’s fundamentals, viewing any pullback as an opportunity, they can focus on call warrants and bull contracts. Regarding call warrants, UBS Group Call Warrant (22176) $UBZIJIN@EC2604C.C (22176.HK)$ and BOC Call Warrant (15329) $BIZIJIN@EC2604C.C (15329.HK)$ have strike prices set at 41.90 yuan and 41.88 yuan, respectively. Both offer about 6x leverage and represent moderately out-of-the-money bullish options. Their strike prices are slightly above the current first resistance level of 39.70 yuan, meaning that if the share price successfully breaks through the resistance and continues upward, these call warrants will be well-positioned to capture subsequent gains. Among them, BOC 15329 stands out for its higher leverage and lower implied volatility. For bull contracts, BOC Bull (66030) $BI#ZIJINRC2612A.C (66030.HK)$ and HSBC bull certificate (65598) $HS#ZIJINRC2611C.C (65598.HK)$ have their call prices set at 35.00 yuan. This price level is below the current first support level of 35.80 yuan, providing a safety buffer of over 8% for the stock price to reduce the risk of hitting the call price due to normal technical pullbacks. They offer more than 8 times actual leverage, making them suitable for betting on a rebound after the stock price stabilizes at the support level.

Investors who believe that the short-term rise in stock price has been too rapid and may face profit-taking pressure can consider bear certificate products. Societe Generale bear certificate (54665) $SG#ZIJINRP2812A.P (54665.HK)$ and UBS bear certificate (63332) $UB#ZIJINRP2810A.P (63332.HK)$ have their call prices set at 40.00 yuan. This price is slightly above the current resistance level of 39.70 yuan, offering only about a 4.4% buffer. This means that if the stock price continues its strong upward momentum and slightly breaks through the resistance, these two bear certificates will face a higher risk of being forcibly called. Therefore, they are only suitable for scenarios where investors firmly believe in a short-term bearish trend, expecting the stock price to clearly encounter resistance at 39.70 yuan and reverse downward. High leverage (about 15 times) is a double-edged sword, amplifying potential returns while also significantly increasing risks.

For more real-time technical analysis, in-depth interpretation of terms, and market strategy discussions on individual Hong Kong stocks and derivatives, you can follow the professional sharing of 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny'.

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This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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