[Warrant Perspective] Local lifestyle leader hitting bottom? Meituan's hundred-dollar mark is key

Looking at the basic market trends, as of 13:35, current price: HKD 101.5 (down HKD 3 from previous close, a drop of 2.87%)

Opening price: HKD 103.7, highest price: HKD 103.9, lowest price: HKD 101.4

Previous close: HKD 104.5, average price: HKD 102.083

Price fluctuation: 2.39%, turnover rate: 0.48%

Market performance

Trading volume: 29.3231 million shares, trading value: HKD 2.993 billion

Total market capitalization: HKD 620.326 billion

P/E ratio (static): 16.04x

Price-to-book ratio: 3.382x, Commission ratio: 22.98%, Volume ratio: 1.3

Long-term trend

52-week high: 189.6 yuan, 52-week low: 94.05 yuan

Historical high: 460 yuan, Historical low: 40.25 yuan

The technical trend shows an adjustment pattern. The summary of technical indicators shows a "buy" signal with strength reaching 9. Among them, the Williams %R indicator shows "oversold zone, buy", and the momentum oscillation indicator also issues a "buy" signal, reflecting that after the price adjustment, conditions for a technical rebound are accumulating. However, several major indicators remain in sell or neutral status, and Bollinger Bands also indicate "neutral", suggesting that the upward trend has not yet fully established.

Regarding key position deployment, RMB 97.6 becomes a recent important support, with the next line of defense at RMB 93.4; resistance above is first seen at RMB 105.5, and a breakout could target the RMB 109.6 level. Meituan is consolidating around the psychological RMB 100 mark. Do you think this reflects intensified competition in the local life services sector, or is it an adjustment in market expectations regarding its profitability? Can the recovery of in-store business and narrowing losses from new businesses serve as catalysts for a stock price rebound?

Reviewing the product performance on the 5th of this month, short position products recorded returns at that time. The 54418 J.P. Morgan bear certificate rose by 8%, while the 18354 UBS Group put warrant gained 5%, indicating that inverse products can play a hedging role in an adjustment market. $UBMTUAN@EP2603A.P (18354.HK)$$JP#MTUANRP2807B.P (54418.HK)$

If you are optimistic about Meituan regaining its upward momentum, for call warrants, consider the 20116 HSBC call warrant. $HSMTUAN@EC2603D.C (20116.HK)$ It provides 13.1 times leverage with an exercise price of 108.98 yuan and has the lowest implied volatility in the market; or the 20964 Morley call warrant, which offers 11.6 times leverage with an exercise price of 106.78 yuan and has the lowest premium in the market. For bull certificate choices, $UB#MTUANRC2605R.C (56640.HK)$ the 56640 UBS Group bull certificate provides 12.7 times effective leverage with a recovery price of 97 yuan; the 59714 HSBC bull certificate provides 10.2 times effective leverage with a recovery price of 95 yuan, both representing aggressive deployment strategies.

Pessimistic investors may consider the 21520 UBS Group put warrant, $UBMTUAN@EP2603C.P (21520.HK)$ which provides 10.1 times leverage with an exercise price of 94.83 yuan; or the 20433 Credit Suisse put warrant, offering 9.5 times leverage with an exercise price of 94.88 yuan. For bear certificates, the 54418 J.P. Morgan bear certificate provides 7.9 times effective leverage with a recovery price of 114 yuan; the 54049 HSBC bear certificate provides 7.6 times effective leverage with a recovery price also at 114 yuan.

Meituan is showing technical support around the 100 yuan level. Do you think this is the beginning of a valuation recovery, or has the downward pressure not yet been fully released? Between the stability of core businesses and the potential of innovative ventures, which factor influences your judgment more when assessing Meituan's prospects? Feel free to share your unique insights on the investment value of local life platforms!

This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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