[Warrant Perspective] A short-term adjustment of 1.09% in China Mobile drives a 19% rise in put warrants; Warrant Trading Guide

At 10:00 AM on January 8th, $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$

The latest quote is HKD 81.15, a slight 0.37% drop from the previous day's (January 7) closing price, with a current turnover reaching HKD 433 million. From a technical perspective,China Mobile's current support levels are clear, with the first support at HKD 78.2 and the second at HKD 74.9; resistance levels are at HKD 84.6 and HKD 87.9 respectively.Whether it can break through the resistance level of HKD 84.6 in the short term will be key to determining if the rebound trend can continue.

We have commented on China Mobile in our [HK Stock Broadcast]:The stock price is relatively more volatile. Based on the current closing price, it is approximately HKD 81.3. Although the fluctuation range isn't particularly large, you can see that its daily volatility is actually quite significant. Additionally, under the circumstance of a falling stock market, the trading volume of China Mobile has also increased. China Mobile has fallen for three consecutive days, and at the same time, the trading volume has risen for three consecutive days. This data deserves attention.January 7 [HK Stocks Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Hong Kong Exchange, Yanzhou Energy, AIA, China Mobile, Alibaba $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$HKEX (00388.HK)$$YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK)$$AIA (01299.HK)$$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$

From a technical indicator perspective, China Mobile closed at HKD 81.4 on January 7, down 0.97% in a single day. The technical indicators show a 'buy' signal, with an overall signal strength as high as 11, which falls into the 'strong buy' range. Its RSI indicator is only 29, clearly entering an oversold condition. The stock price is close to the key support level of HKD 78.2, indicating a larger potential for a short-term technical rebound.

Compared with peers, $CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$ which closed at HKD 5.38, down 1.65%. Technical signals also indicate a 'buy,' and the RSI of 33 similarly shows an oversold condition, with the stock price hovering near the support level of HKD 5.18; $CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)$ performed relatively steadily, up 0.12% to HKD 8.06. The technical indicators also signal a 'buy,' but the trading volume was low, showing slightly insufficient momentum.

Overall, telecom stocks were generally weak that day, but China Mobile’s strong buy signal suggests selling pressure may be nearing an end, with the sector as a whole consolidating at lower levels.

It is worth noting that China Mobile's warrant market has already anticipated this wave of volatility. Looking back at the performance of warrants on January 5, 2026, as China Mobile's stock fell by a cumulative 1.09% over the following two days, the related bearish and put warrants gained strength respectively. $BP#C MOBRP2605A.P (57946.HK)$ The increase reached 6% in two days; UBS Group bearish warrant (56287) rose by 5%, and $CI-CMOB@EP2604A.P (21480.HK)$ performed even more prominently, with an increase of up to 19% in two days, while $BI-CMOB@EP2604A.P (21625.HK)$ also saw a 12% rise. This data clearly demonstrates the linkage logic between warrants and the underlying stocks: when the underlying stock falls, put warrants and bearish contracts benefit accordingly, and due to leverage effects, the gains of warrants often significantly exceed the drop of the underlying stock.

Decoding the underlying logic:The movement of the underlying stock directly determines the direction of the warrant; call warrants gain value as the underlying rises, whereas put warrants profit from drops in the underlying. Bear and bull contracts similarly align with downward and upward movements of the underlying stock respectively. Key factors influencing the gains of warrants include leverage multiples, the proximity of the strike price to the current stock price, and implied volatility. For instance, the standout performance of Xinhua Trust’s put warrant (21480) can be attributed to its high leverage and low implied volatility, enabling it to achieve substantial gains even amidst a minor decline in the underlying stock.

Based on the current market situation, we have selected four quality warrant options for investors' reference:

First, $BI-CMOB@EC2603B.C (22167.HK)$ this option provides a leverage of 22.6 times with a strike price of 92.05 yuan. Its main advantage lies in having both the lowest premium and implied volatility. When the underlying stock rebounds, low-premium options track the stock movement more accurately, resulting in relatively lower risk.

Second, $BP-CMOB@EC2604A.C (27800.HK)$With a leverage of 21.2 times and a strike price of 92 yuan, it has the lowest implied volatility and higher leverage, making it suitable for investors who are optimistic about China Mobile's short-term rebound and seek higher returns;

Third,$BI-CMOB@EP2604A.P (21625.HK)$With a leverage of 19.1 times and a strike price of 75.83 yuan, both premium and implied volatility are the lowest. If China Mobile falls below the support level of 78.2 yuan, this option offers good hedging and profit potential;

Fourth,$UB#C MOBRC2709C.C (63412.HK)$It has high actual leverage and low premium with a strike price of 72 yuan, making it suitable for investors who are long-term bullish on China Mobile and willing to take on some risk.

Suggestions: Investors who already hold China Mobile call warrants or bull contracts should focus on the resistance level at 84.6 yuan. If it fails to break through effectively, consider taking profits; for those not yet in the market, it is not recommended to blindly chase targets with large short-term fluctuations. It is better to choose low-premium, low-implied volatility options like BOC call warrants (22167), which are more stable. As for put warrants and bear contracts, they are only recommended after China Mobile confirms breaking below the 78.2 yuan support level, to avoid entering early and bearing the risk of a rebound.

Finally, it must be reminded thatIntraday volatility may be due to short-term capital speculation. Without sustained volume support, China Mobile’s rebound may not last, and the corresponding warrants could also retreat at any time. Additionally, warrants are high-risk derivatives, so before entering, make sure to check the real-time premium rate and trading volume of the warrant to avoid liquidity issues that may prevent timely buying or selling.

Do you think China Mobile’s rebound after this oversold condition can be sustained? Will the 78.2 yuan support level hold?Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment section! Want more analysis? Don’t forget to follow ‘HK Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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