The innovative drug sector gained strength, with Akeso Inc. leading the rally to test resistance.

$AKESO (09926.HK)$As of January 7, 2026, Akeso Inc. (09926.HK) closed at HKD 127.3, up 5.73%. This performance was closely related to the overall increased activity of the Hong Kong-listed innovative drug sector that day, with several stocks in the sector recording gains of more than 4%. During the intraday session that day, Leap Therapeutics-B $LEPU BIO (02157.HK)$ , Hengrui Pharma H shares $HENGRUI PHARMA (01276.HK)$ , CAYLANA H shares $ASYMCHEM (06821.HK)$ Multiple stocks rose more than 4%, indicating that market attention to this sector is increasing significantly.

Market News and Diverging Views: Balancing Short-term Pressure with Long-term Potential

From the market information perspective, Akeso Biopharma is currently at a stage where short-term catalysts are absent but long-term value reassessment persists. On one hand, Daiwa Securities issued a report on January 6, pointing out that the company lacks short-term catalysts currently. The next major data for its core product PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody 'Ivonescimab' will not be available until the end of 2024. Therefore, they downgraded the rating from 'Buy' to 'Hold', while simultaneously raising the target price from 100 yuan to 116 yuan, reflecting recognition of its long-term royalty income. On the other hand, market sentiment is supported by sector rotation and event expectations. Some viewpoints suggest that as the JPM Healthcare Conference approaches, the market has expectations regarding the pipeline progress and business situation of innovative pharmaceutical companies, providing a short-term favorable window for related sectors.

More significant long-term benefits come from the adjustment of the National Medical Insurance Catalog at the end of 2025. All approved indications of Akeso Biopharma’s five self-developed new drugs that have been marketed are successfully included in the new edition of the National Medical Insurance Catalog and will take effect starting from January 1, 2026. This is considered by the market as a decisive step in driving the company into a high-growth commercialization phase.

Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels: Breakthrough Game at Critical Points

From a technical analysis perspective, Akeso Biopharma is facing direct challenges at key resistance levels after a strong upward movement.

According to the latest data, the stock price has clearly moved above the short-term moving average system (MA10: 115.55 yuan, MA30: 118.16 yuan), indicating a strengthening of the short-term trend. Multiple trend indicators such as MACD and Bollinger Bands are issuing 'buy' signals, supporting further upward momentum. However, some oscillation indicators have indicated overbought risks; for example, the Stochastic Oscillator shows 'overbought condition, sell,' and the Williams %R indicator is also in the overbought zone, suggesting certain profit-taking pressure has accumulated in the short term.

The key price range provides clear references for operations:

* Upside Resistance: The primary resistance level is at 135 yuan, which is also the key level to conquer in the near term. If it can effectively break through, the next target will point to the second resistance level at 140.5 yuan.

* Support below: The nearest first support level is at 117.8 yuan, which is close to the 30-day moving average and serves as a short-term dividing line between strength and weakness. A more critical strong support level is at 114.9 yuan; once this level is broken, it could mean that the current rebound structure has been compromised.

It should be noted that technical analysis has suggested that if the stock price fails to form an effective breakout, one must be cautious of potentially bearish patterns such as a 'triple top.' Therefore, with the current stock price around 127.7 yuan, it is at a critical juncture where 'breaking through the 135 yuan resistance opens up space' versus 'falling below the 117.8 yuan support may lead to weakness.'

Review of Warrants Products: Evidence of Leverage Effect

Historical data clearly demonstrates the leverage effect of derivatives when the underlying stock experiences trending volatility. On January 5, 2026, when Akeso Inc.'s stock recorded a gain of about 9.05% over the following two days, the linked derivative products saw significant gains. Huatai call warrants (22043) rose by 29%, while the higher-leveraged bull certificate products performed even better: J.P. Morgan Bull Certificates (57639) $JP#AKESORC2703A.C (57639.HK)$ and UBS Group Bull Certificates (54221) $UB#AKESORC2612A.C (54221.HK)$ recorded increases of 44% and 45%, respectively.

Current Recommendations and Terms for Warrants and Bull/Bear Certificates

Based on the current technical situation near a key breakout point, if investors are optimistic about breaking through 135 yuan and continuing upward, they can focus on the following call warrants and bull certificate products. When choosing, it's important to pay attention to how the strike price/recovery price relates to the aforementioned key resistance and support levels.

1. HSBC Call Warrant (21964) $HSAKESO@EC2605A.C (21964.HK)$

This product has a strike price of 149.26 yuan, offering approximately 4x leverage. Its features include the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products. Term Analysis: This strike price is much higher than the second resistance level (140.5 yuan), making it a deep out-of-the-money warrant. This means its price sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in the underlying stock is lower, and time value decay is the main risk. It is more suitable for betting on a very strong trending rise in the underlying stock, breaking through all resistances and challenging higher levels (above 150 yuan). If the underlying stock only rises moderately or oscillates before the resistance level, this product’s performance may be weaker.

2. J.P. Morgan Call Warrant (23440)$JPAKESO@EC2604A.C (23440.HK)$

This product has an exercise price of 149.36 yuan, offering approximately 3.6 times leverage, with its leverage and implied volatility considered relatively ideal. Terms analysis: Its exercise price is set similarly to HSBC 21964, also belonging to a deep out-of-the-money strategy that requires significant upside potential for the underlying stock. Investors choosing such products are essentially betting on major positive catalysts driving an explosive move in share price far beyond current resistance levels. The likelihood of this expectation being realized needs careful evaluation.

3. J.P. Morgan Bull Contract (56817)$JP#AKESORC2611B.C (56817.HK)$

This bull contract has a stop-loss level at 103 yuan, providing about 3.6 times actual leverage, and has the lowest premium. Terms analysis: Among the three products, this one has the clearest risk structure but also the most aggressive relationship with key technical levels of the underlying stock. Its stop-loss level at 103 yuan is significantly lower than the current first support level (117.8 yuan) and even the second support level (114.9 yuan). This means that if the underlying stock price falls by approximately 19.3% from the current level and hits 103 yuan, the bull contract will be forcibly stopped, and investors may face the risk of losing their entire principal. Its advantage lies in the fact that, prior to being stopped, its price movement closely follows the underlying stock without time decay, and it offers higher actual leverage. This product is only suitable for investors who are extremely bullish on Akeso’s short-term performance and believe it is almost impossible for the stock to experience a deep pullback.

For more real-time analysis, terms interpretation, and strategy discussions on Hong Kong stocks and derivatives, you can follow professional sharing by 'Hong Kong Warrants Jenny'.

#Kangfang Biotech #09926 #Innovative Drugs #Technical Analysis #Support and Resistance Levels #Warrants #Bull and Bear Certificates #Medical Insurance Catalog #Leverage Effect #Two-way Trading

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