After a surge in trading volume, will Mixue Group's stock price challenge new highs or retrace?

As of now, Mixue Group's stock price is at 433.2 yuan, surging 7.92% with a turnover of 292 million yuan. Observing the technical chart, the long bullish candlestick on January 6 holds significant importance for Mixue Group. The stock price not only successfully reclaimed the 10-day moving average (around 418 yuan) but also broke through the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range between 400 and 435 yuan.

The key moving average system shows an entangled state. Currently, the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are at 417.98, 411.45, and 411.91 yuan respectively, showing high convergence, indicating that the market’s average cost over the past one to three months is highly concentrated. Today’s closing price has stabilized above all moving averages, providing a positive signal for the short-term trend.

However, multiple technical indicators present conflicting signals. On one hand, the MACD indicator has issued a buy signal, suggesting momentum may be improving. On the other hand, the overall technical indicator summary signals a 'sell' with an intensity rating of 9, reflecting that most indicators do not yet support a strong bullish outlook. The RSI indicator is at 47, within the neutral zone, showing neither overbought nor oversold pressure, leaving room for future price movement.

This divergence in technical signals means that the current upward momentum still needs confirmation from subsequent trading volume and price action; investors should be cautious about potential fluctuations near key resistance levels.

Intense collision between key price levels and market views

According to technical analysis, the key levels for Mixue Group are very clear. The first resistance level is at 435 yuan, which will be the first test of whether the stock price can continue its strong performance; if it breaks through, the next target will be 453 yuan. The support levels below are equally crucial. The first support level is at 400 yuan, which is not only a psychological round number but also a position touched multiple times previously; stronger support lies at 385 yuan, close to the low area reached in September 2025.

In sharp contrast to the technical picture, there has been a significant divergence in institutional views recently. Optimistic earnings expectations form the core logic for the bulls. In its latest research report, Dongwu Securities pointed out that Mixue Group, as the leader in affordable tea drinks, has a clear trend of increasing market share during industry consolidation due to its robust supply chain and product development capabilities. The firm expects the company’s domestic store count to reach approximately 70,000 and maintains a 'Buy' rating. CCB International also maintained its 'Outperform' rating due to the resilience shown in the first half of the year.

However, cautious voices on valuation reassessment have emerged. On January 5th, Daiwa Securities issued a report downgrading Mixue Group's rating from 'Outperform' to 'Hold' and significantly cutting its target price from 535 yuan to 427 yuan. The reasons for the downgrade were slower future profit growth and the lack of validation for overseas markets as a second growth engine. This adjustment, amounting to a 20% reduction, leaves very limited potential upside from the current stock price, reflecting some institutions' concerns about the sustainability of its high valuation.

Current analysis of available warrant products

Based on the technical pattern following Mixue Group’s breakout and the fundamental divergence between bulls and bears, investors can choose different call warrants to deploy according to their risk preferences.

Investors who believe the breakout is valid and the uptrend confirmed may consider products with moderate strike prices and reasonable leverage. For instance, Xinzhen Call Warrant (19936) $CIMIXUE@EC2604A.C (19936.HK)$ and Societe Generale Call Warrant (22392) $SGMIXUE@EC2604A.C (22392.HK)$Both have an exercise price of 508 yuan. The premiums for these two products are approximately 28.18% and 27.03%, respectively, with implied volatilities of 74.57% and 71.10%. This indicates that the market expects significant volatility in the underlying stock in the future, but investors will also need to bear corresponding costs. These products are suitable for deploying strategies anticipating that the stock price will continue to test resistance levels over the next few weeks.

For more optimistic investors willing to take on higher risk for potentially greater returns, products with higher degrees of being out-of-the-money and higher actual leverage can be considered. For example, BOC Call Warrant (20132)$BIMIXUE@EC2603A.C (20132.HK)$and HSBC Call Warrant (21811)$HSMIXUE@EC2603A.C (21811.HK)$, both with an exercise price of 530.5 yuan. Their out-of-the-money levels are approximately 22.86%, with premiums of 28.76% and 28.88%, respectively. The characteristic of such products is that they are more sensitive to changes in the underlying stock price (i.e., higher effective leverage). However, if the underlying stock moves sideways or declines, their price decay (especially time value erosion) will also be faster. Therefore, they are only suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance who have a clear expectation of short-term rapid gains.

Interactive Discussion: Given the backdrop of diverging institutional views and a surge in trading volume breaking through key levels, do you think Mixue Group's stock price will rise to challenge the resistance level at 435 yuan, or will it first retest the 400-yuan support level for consolidation? In terms of strategy deployment, would you lean towards using call warrants or bull/bear certificates to capture potential opportunities?

For more real-time data analysis and professional strategy insights on Hong Kong stock call warrants and bull/bear certificates, please continue to follow #HongKongStockWarrantsJenny’s market observations.

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Friendly reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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