[Warrant Perspective] Strong divergence signals in new energy vehicle stocks! How to choose XPeng Motors warrants?

As of 11:26 AM today (January 6), $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$

The latest quote is HKD 79.6, with a temporary increase of 3.78%. The trading volume has reached HKD 573 million. Combining technical analysis data,the stock’s short-term resistance level is at HKD 81.6, support level at HKD 73.5, and stronger support at HKD 68.9,the current share price remains below the major moving averages but is attempting to move upwards.

Reviewing sector data from January 5, all new energy vehicle stocks ended in the red: XPeng Motors closed at HKD 76.65, down 4.60%. Technically, the share price is below all major moving averages (MA10: HKD 77.31, MA30: HKD 77.90, MA60: HKD 83.48), but the overall technical indicator signal is "Buy" with an intensity rating of 9, indicating a strong signal. The RSI is at 46, remaining in the neutral range;

$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ Closing at HKD 66.35, down 2.50%, the overall technical signal is "Sell", with an intensity rating of 8; $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ Closing at HKD 95.8, down 2.99%, the overall technical signal is "Buy", with an intensity rating of 10; $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ Closing at HKD 38.86, down 5.95%, the overall technical signal is "Buy", with an intensity rating of 9; $GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ Closing at HKD 14.19, down 6.15%, the overall technical signal is "Buy", with an intensity rating of 10; $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ Closing at HKD 17.6, down 3.30%, the technical signal summary is 'Neutral', with a strength rating of 9.

It's not difficult to notice that most stocks are showing a divergence between technical indicators and price movements, which also sets the stage for potential market volatility ahead.

Historically, when XPeng Motors' stock price experiences significant fluctuations, associated derivative warrants have always reacted swiftly. Reviewing data from December 31, 2025, on that day, the underlying XPeng Motors stock fell by 3.40% two days later, while corresponding put warrants and bear certificates both rose in value, with $SGXPENG@EP2606A.P (22390.HK)$ and $MSXPENG@EP2606A.P (22381.HK)$ both rising by 6% two days later, $UB#XPENGRP2804C.P (67952.HK)$ and some even reaching gains of 15% two days later, perfectly demonstrating the leverage effect of derivative warrants—when the underlying stock falls, put warrants and bear certificates rise correspondingly, making them effective tools for hedging downside risk in the underlying stock.

Breaking down the logic: The movement of the underlying stock directly determines the direction of the associated derivative warrants; put warrants and bear certificates move inversely to the stock, rising when the stock falls, while call warrants and bull certificates move in the same direction as the stock. Additionally, factors like the leverage ratio, strike price distance from the stock price, and premium rate directly affect their magnitude of gains or losses. For instance, in this case review of $UB#XPENGRP2804C.P (67952.HK)$ , due to its leverage characteristics, it achieved a 15% gain when the underlying stock dropped by 3.40%, showcasing a significant leverage effect.

In light of the current market conditions, we've screened three optimal products from XPeng Motors' derivative warrant pool for reference:

The first is Morgan Stanley’s put warrant (22381), offering 2.2x leverage and a strike price of HKD 78.63. Its core advantage lies in having the lowest premium and implied volatility, meaning lower risk under the currently weak and volatile stock conditions, making it more suitable for conservative investors looking to hedge risks.

The second is $UB#XPENGRC2605A.C (61943.HK)$With a leverage of 8.5 times and a strike price of 70 yuan, it has the lowest premium, making it suitable for investors who are optimistic about XPeng Motors' subsequent rebound and are willing to take on some risk for potentially high returns.

The third one is $UBXPENG@EC2606B.C (23811.HK)$with a leverage of 3.9 times and a strike price of 88.93 yuan; both leverage and implied volatility are relatively ideal, making it a good alternative target for rebound scenarios.

Operational recommendations:Fellow investors who already hold put warrants or bearish certificates can set profit-taking levels, with a recommendation to set the profit-taking point at 5% above yesterday's closing price to avoid profit erosion. For those not yet in the market, chasing recently surging targets is not advisable, as the premium rates of some short-term rising warrants have significantly climbed. It would be better to prioritize low-premium options such as the Morgan Stanley put warrant (22381), which is more stable. If considering a rebound play, the UBS Group bull certificate (61943) has the lowest premium, offering better cost-effectiveness. However, entry should only be considered after the underlying stock stabilizes above the support level of 73.5 yuan, reducing downside risks.

Risk Warning:Intraday volatility may result from short-term speculative fund movements. Without sustained trading volume support, the underlying stock could see warrants pull back at any time. Before entering, always check the warrant's real-time premium rate and trading volume to avoid buying illiquid targets, which could prevent timely unwinding. Additionally, warrants are high-risk derivatives where leverage amplifies both potential gains and risks, so investors must participate rationally based on their risk tolerance.

Is XPeng Motors' volatile consolidation a short-term pullback or the beginning of a trend reversal? Fellow investors who have already positioned themselves in related warrants, which target did you choose?Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment section! Want more analysis? Don’t forget to follow ‘HK Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

#Xiaopeng Motors #Hong Kong Stock Movement #Warrants Instant Analysis #Intraday Opportunities #Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny #Warrants Selection #Warrants Strategy #Derivatives Hedging #New Energy Vehicle Stock Analysis #Hong Kong Stock Volatility Market

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