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Kicking off the year with a bang! Multiple sectors in Hong Kong's stock market are quietly gaining m
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Jan 6 10:31

[Warrant Perspective] Alibaba breaks through the 10-day line! Four selected targets to seize opportunities

Closing on January 5, 2026, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$
The stock closed at 152.8 yuan, surging 2.55% in a single day, with a trading volume as high as 15.682 billion yuan and a 5-day volatility of 7.5%. Technically speaking,As of 10:18 AM on January 6 (current price 152 yuan), the share price successfully broke through the 10-day moving average of 146.14 yuan. Immediate support levels are at 147.2 yuan and 144.7 yuan, while resistance levels are seen at 157.4 yuan and 160.9 yuan. The probability of an upward move is 55%, with the RSI indicator at 54 showing a neutral signal. However, multiple technical indicators summarize as 'neutral,' with a signal strength of 10.
Closing on January 5, 2026, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The stock closed at 152.8 yuan, surging 2.55% in a single day with a trading volume as high as 15.682 billion yuan, and a 5-day volatility reaching 7.5%. Technically, The current share price (152 yuan) has successfully broken through the 10-day line of 146.14 yuan as of 10:18 AM on January 6. Short-term support levels are at 147.2 yuan and 144.7 yuan, while resistance levels are seen at 157.4 yuan and 160.9 yuan. The probability of an upward move is 55%, and the RSI indicator stands at 54, signaling neutrality. However, multiple technical indicators summarize as 'neutral', with signal strength at 10. Tech stocks in the same sector showed mixed performance, $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ surging 11.09%, $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ rising 5.06%, while $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ others saw declines to varying degrees.Although Alibaba's share price rose, technical indicators imply a 'strong sell' signal. The market outlook needs close attention on whether the resistance level of 157.4 yuan can be successfully broken. Warrant market reaction recap: A 3% rise in the underlying stock triggered a surge in warrants, with significant leverage effects. The strong performance of the underlying stock quickly spilled over to the warrant market. Looking back at December 30, 2025...
Tech stocks within the same sector showed mixed performances, $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ with one stock surging 11.09%, $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ another rising 5.06%, while $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ others experienced declines to varying degrees.Among them, although Alibaba’s share price rose, its technical indicators signaled a 'strong sell' warning. Market focus will remain on whether it can successfully break through the key resistance level at 157.4 yuan.
Warrant reaction review: A 3% rise in the underlying stock drove a surge in warrants, demonstrating remarkable leverage effects.
The strong performance of the underlying stock quickly spilled over into the warrant market. Looking back at December 30, 2025, when Alibaba's underlying stock rose by 3.11% over two days, the related warrants saw explosive gains. $UB#ALIBARC26083.C (61655.HK)$ The two-day increase reached as high as 29%, $JP#ALIBARC2608M.C (55300.HK)$ while others surged 25%, $SGALIBA@EC2603A.C (15287.HK)$ 、 $HSALIBA@EC2604A.C (14334.HK)$ and some also recorded gains of 19% and 18%. The warrant increases far exceeded those of the underlying stock, fully reflecting the amplification effect of leverage tools.
Logically, when the underlying stock rises, call warrants and bull contracts follow suit with increases. The higher the leverage and the lower the premium, the more pronounced the gain tends to be. The standout warrants this time around featured low premiums and high leverage, closely linked to the movement of the underlying stock, making them an efficient tool for capturing short-term opportunities.
Closing on January 5, 2026, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The stock closed at 152.8 yuan, surging 2.55% in a single day with a trading volume as high as 15.682 billion yuan, and a 5-day volatility reaching 7.5%. Technically, The current share price (152 yuan) has successfully broken through the 10-day line of 146.14 yuan as of 10:18 AM on January 6. Short-term support levels are at 147.2 yuan and 144.7 yuan, while resistance levels are seen at 157.4 yuan and 160.9 yuan. The probability of an upward move is 55%, and the RSI indicator stands at 54, signaling neutrality. However, multiple technical indicators summarize as 'neutral', with signal strength at 10. Tech stocks in the same sector showed mixed performance, $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ surging 11.09%, $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ rising 5.06%, while $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ others saw declines to varying degrees.Although Alibaba's share price rose, technical indicators imply a 'strong sell' signal. The market outlook needs close attention on whether the resistance level of 157.4 yuan can be successfully broken. Warrant market reaction recap: A 3% rise in the underlying stock triggered a surge in warrants, with significant leverage effects. The strong performance of the underlying stock quickly spilled over to the warrant market. Looking back at December 30, 2025...
Based on the current market situation, we have carefully selected four warrants with the best value from the pool, providing recommendations accordingly:
For those optimistic about Alibaba breaking through resistance levels, the preferred choice is HSBC call warrant (14334) and $UB#ALIBARC2607J.C (55785.HK)$ . The former offers 8.3x leverage, with a strike price of $170, and has the lowest premium and implied volatility, offering the highest value. The latter provides actual leverage of 8.2x, a recovery price of $137, low premium, and strong linkage to the underlying stock, making it more suitable for investors seeking stable leverage.
If you're concerned about a potential stock price pullback, consider focusing on $UBALIBA@EP2603H.P (20870.HK)$ and $HS#ALIBARP2807B.P (63846.HK)$UBS Group put warrant (20870) offers a leverage of 9.6 times, with a strike price of 137.9 HKD. Its low premium and implied volatility make it more defensive. HSBC bear contract (63846) provides the highest actual leverage of 7.8 times, with a recovery price of 172.5 HKD and relatively lower premium, making it suitable for short-term risk hedging.
Fellow investors who already hold relevant CBBCs are advised to use the resistance level at 157.4 HKD as a reference to set a profit-taking point. Investors who have not yet entered the market should avoid blindly chasing highs. Targets with low premiums and stable implied volatility carry lower risks and can better withstand market fluctuations.$BIALIBA@EC2604B.C (20577.HK)$
Closing on January 5, 2026, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The stock closed at 152.8 yuan, surging 2.55% in a single day with a trading volume as high as 15.682 billion yuan, and a 5-day volatility reaching 7.5%. Technically, The current share price (152 yuan) has successfully broken through the 10-day line of 146.14 yuan as of 10:18 AM on January 6. Short-term support levels are at 147.2 yuan and 144.7 yuan, while resistance levels are seen at 157.4 yuan and 160.9 yuan. The probability of an upward move is 55%, and the RSI indicator stands at 54, signaling neutrality. However, multiple technical indicators summarize as 'neutral', with signal strength at 10. Tech stocks in the same sector showed mixed performance, $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ surging 11.09%, $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ rising 5.06%, while $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ others saw declines to varying degrees.Although Alibaba's share price rose, technical indicators imply a 'strong sell' signal. The market outlook needs close attention on whether the resistance level of 157.4 yuan can be successfully broken. Warrant market reaction recap: A 3% rise in the underlying stock triggered a surge in warrants, with significant leverage effects. The strong performance of the underlying stock quickly spilled over to the warrant market. Looking back at December 30, 2025...
Closing on January 5, 2026, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The stock closed at 152.8 yuan, surging 2.55% in a single day with a trading volume as high as 15.682 billion yuan, and a 5-day volatility reaching 7.5%. Technically, The current share price (152 yuan) has successfully broken through the 10-day line of 146.14 yuan as of 10:18 AM on January 6. Short-term support levels are at 147.2 yuan and 144.7 yuan, while resistance levels are seen at 157.4 yuan and 160.9 yuan. The probability of an upward move is 55%, and the RSI indicator stands at 54, signaling neutrality. However, multiple technical indicators summarize as 'neutral', with signal strength at 10. Tech stocks in the same sector showed mixed performance, $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ surging 11.09%, $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ rising 5.06%, while $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 、 $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ others saw declines to varying degrees.Although Alibaba's share price rose, technical indicators imply a 'strong sell' signal. The market outlook needs close attention on whether the resistance level of 157.4 yuan can be successfully broken. Warrant market reaction recap: A 3% rise in the underlying stock triggered a surge in warrants, with significant leverage effects. The strong performance of the underlying stock quickly spilled over to the warrant market. Looking back at December 30, 2025...
Risk Warning:Intraday fluctuations may be due to short-term speculative trading. Alibaba is currently facing competitive pressures in its core e-commerce business, and high investments in AI could lead to tight cash flow. Without sustained volume support for the underlying stock, CBBCs could easily experience pullbacks. Before entering the market, it is crucial to check the real-time premium rate and trading volume of the CBBCs, while also keeping an eye on their expiration dates to avoid losses caused by time decay.
Do you think Alibaba will successfully break through the resistance level at 157.4 HKD? Or do you prefer call or put CBBCs?Feel free to share your strategy in the comment section! Want more analysis? Don’t forget to follow 'HK Stock CBBC Jenny' for daily updates!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#Alibaba #9988 #HongKongStockMovement #WarrantsRealTimeAnalysis #IntradayOpportunities #HongKongWarrantsJenny #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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