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joined discussion · Dec 30, 2025 16:36 ·

[Opportunity Express] Holding the best lithium resources, a threefold surge in reversal – can the world’s lithium king ALB regain its former glory?

2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn, entering a reversal cycle.
$Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the 'King of Lithium,' it controls the world's most premium and lowest-cost combination of lithium resources, while also possessing smelting capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.The company’s stock bottomed out in April 2025, surging threefold from $48 to break through the $150 mark, drawing significant attention from investors.
During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources from 2020 to 2022, ALB briefly approached $320 before entering an extended adjustment period. A new lithium cycle has begun; can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this week’s Opportunity Spotlight.
2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn and entered a reversal cycle. $Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the world’s lithium king, it controls the highest quality and lowest cost combination of lithium resources globally, while also possessing refining capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.In April 2025, the company’s stock price bottomed out at $48 before surging threefold, breaking through the $150 mark, capturing significant attention from investors. During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources between 2020-2022, ALB once approached $320 before entering a prolonged adjustment phase. A new lithium cycle has begun – can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this episode of Opportunity Express. New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift Since late 2020, driven by the explosive growth in demand due to electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices skyrocketed from 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. The lure of massive profits attracted numerous manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamics and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustment, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again. Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been raised...
New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift
2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn and entered a reversal cycle. $Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the world’s lithium king, it controls the highest quality and lowest cost combination of lithium resources globally, while also possessing refining capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.In April 2025, the company’s stock price bottomed out at $48 before surging threefold, breaking through the $150 mark, capturing significant attention from investors. During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources between 2020-2022, ALB once approached $320 before entering a prolonged adjustment phase. A new lithium cycle has begun – can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this episode of Opportunity Express. New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift Since late 2020, driven by the explosive growth in demand due to electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices skyrocketed from 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. The lure of massive profits attracted numerous manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamics and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustment, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again. Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been raised...
Since the end of 2020, driven by the explosive growth of electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices soared from 40,000 RMB/ton to nearly 600,000 RMB/ton. The enormous profits spurred many manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamic and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustments, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again.
Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been revised upwards to 520-550GWh, with growth exceeding 60%, becoming a new growth pole for lithium demand.
2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn and entered a reversal cycle. $Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the world’s lithium king, it controls the highest quality and lowest cost combination of lithium resources globally, while also possessing refining capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.In April 2025, the company’s stock price bottomed out at $48 before surging threefold, breaking through the $150 mark, capturing significant attention from investors. During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources between 2020-2022, ALB once approached $320 before entering a prolonged adjustment phase. A new lithium cycle has begun – can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this episode of Opportunity Express. New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift Since late 2020, driven by the explosive growth in demand due to electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices skyrocketed from 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. The lure of massive profits attracted numerous manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamics and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustment, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again. Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been raised...
Source: CICC
In the first three quarters of 2025, global energy storage market demand was strong, with Chinese companies securing overseas orders that saw a significant year-on-year increase. Driving factors include rising rigid demand for global renewable energy storage, overseas grid upgrades and renovations, andAI data centers (AIDC) entering the peak period of large-scale deployment of supporting energy storage systems.。
The surge in energy storage demand has smoothed out the downstream demand curve, creating a 'no off-season' characteristic. In November 2025, China's battery production schedule reached 209GWh, up 12.4% month-over-month and 64.6% year-over-year, withenergy storage cells accounting for approximately 33.6% of production schedules, rapidly increasing as a proportion of total demand. This trend is expected to continue over the next two years.
On the supply side, earlier weakness in lithium carbonate prices persisted, falling below the 60,000 yuan/ton range at one point, breaching the cash cost line for many high-cost producers. This led to production cuts or shutdowns at some high-cost mines in Australia and Jiangxi, China, plunging the market into a brutal phase of consolidation.
Under the reasonable interaction of supply and demand, inventories across the supply chain have dropped significantly.Since August 2025, the smelting sector has shown an overall inventory reduction trend, while downstream sectors also began destocking from October.The low inventory situation has weakened the market's buffer, allowing any supply-side disruptions or positive demand signals to be quickly amplified, providing strong support for prices.Institutions believe that driven by energy storage, the price midpoint for lithium carbonate in 2026 could reach 150,000 yuan/ton, with peaks potentially touching 200,000 yuan/ton.
2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn and entered a reversal cycle. $Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the world’s lithium king, it controls the highest quality and lowest cost combination of lithium resources globally, while also possessing refining capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.In April 2025, the company’s stock price bottomed out at $48 before surging threefold, breaking through the $150 mark, capturing significant attention from investors. During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources between 2020-2022, ALB once approached $320 before entering a prolonged adjustment phase. A new lithium cycle has begun – can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this episode of Opportunity Express. New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift Since late 2020, driven by the explosive growth in demand due to electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices skyrocketed from 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. The lure of massive profits attracted numerous manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamics and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustment, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again. Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been raised...
In addition,In September 2025, the US government took an equity stake $Lithium Americas (LAC.US)$This also brought significant shockwaves to the industry.This indicates that beyond rare earths, the US government has also incorporated lithium resources into its strategic layout for critical mineral supply chains, and the strategic value of lithium resources has been re-evaluated once again.
Albemarle: Holding top-tier resources, every move is a game-changer
$Albemarle (ALB.US)$ As a global leader in lithium and chemical products, the company is headquartered in the United States. Through multiple acquisitions, it entered the specialty chemicals sector and accelerated its focus on lithium resources after acquiring Rockwood Holdings in 2015, solidifying its position as an industry leader. Its businesses are focused on three core areas: lithium, bromine specialty chemicals, and catalysts.
By Q3 2025, the lithium business (referred to as energy storage in the chart) contributed the majority of revenue, while specialty chemicals and catalysts (Ketjen) operations remained relatively stable.The company's stock price fluctuations are closely tied to the lithium resource industry.
2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn and entered a reversal cycle. $Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the world’s lithium king, it controls the highest quality and lowest cost combination of lithium resources globally, while also possessing refining capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.In April 2025, the company’s stock price bottomed out at $48 before surging threefold, breaking through the $150 mark, capturing significant attention from investors. During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources between 2020-2022, ALB once approached $320 before entering a prolonged adjustment phase. A new lithium cycle has begun – can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this episode of Opportunity Express. New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift Since late 2020, driven by the explosive growth in demand due to electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices skyrocketed from 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. The lure of massive profits attracted numerous manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamics and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustment, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again. Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been raised...
Data source: Futubull
Currently, the development of global lithium resources is mainly divided into three technological routes: spodumene, salt lake brine, and lepidolite. Among these, lepidolite deposits are concentrated in Jiangxi, China, but face challenges due to lower ore grades and strict environmental restrictions, making extraction difficult. For example, CATL's project at Jianxiawo in Jiangxi has faced continuous obstacles since 2025.In contrast, spodumene and salt lake lithium extraction are more universal and mainstream development models globally.
The reason Albemarle (ALB) is called the giant of the global lithium industry lies in its possession of a unique combination of top-tier resources that cannot be replicated.Albemarle holds the two largest and best cards in both the hard rock lithium mining and salt lake sectors. It can be said that as soon as they play their hand, it’s a 'trump card.'
1) Spodumene:
Albemarle is the largest shareholder of Greenbushes, the lithium-rich spodumene mine with the highest grade, largest reserves, and lowest cost globally.The average lithium oxide grade of typical spodumene mines is around 1.0%-1.2%, while Greenbushes’ grade can reach 2.0% or even higher. This means that for the same amount of ore mined, Albemarle obtains twice as much lithium resources as its competitors.
Notably, $TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK)$Tianqi Lithium was once the controlling shareholder of Greenbushes. However, on the eve of the start of the last industry upturn, Tianqi, plagued by a severe debt crisis, had to introduce Australian mining company IGO at the end of 2020, selling about half of its equity interest. Upon completion of the transaction, Albemarle surpassed Tianqi (after equity consolidation) with a 49% stake, becoming the de facto largest single equity holder of Greenbushes.
2) Salt Lake:
Albemarle holds the long-term concession rights to exploit the Atacama Salt Lake in Chile, which boasts the highest lithium concentration, the best evaporation conditions, and the largest resource volume among existing salt lakes being mined globally.This region is one of the areas with the lowest production costs for lithium carbonate globally, firmly occupying the far-left side (lowest-cost end) of the global lithium cost curve. The brine here has an extremely high lithium concentration, combined with the extremely arid climate of the Chilean desert, allowing for natural solar evaporation without the need for complex industrial assistance.
In addition to these two trump cards, Albemarle also owns strategically significant supplementary assets:
Wodgina is Australia's third-largest lithium mine in terms of reserves. Although its grade is not as good as Greenbushes, it has enormous reserves and a long mine life, providing Albemarle with tremendous production flexibility.
Albemarle owns the Silver Peak salt lake in Nevada, which is currently the only producing lithium source in the United States. Additionally, there is the Kings Mountain hard rock mine in North Carolina (currently being restarted).Against the backdrop of the resource independence agenda promoted by Trump, this 'Made in America' lithium resource carries extremely high political and strategic premiums.
2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn and entered a reversal cycle. $Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the world’s lithium king, it controls the highest quality and lowest cost combination of lithium resources globally, while also possessing refining capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.In April 2025, the company’s stock price bottomed out at $48 before surging threefold, breaking through the $150 mark, capturing significant attention from investors. During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources between 2020-2022, ALB once approached $320 before entering a prolonged adjustment phase. A new lithium cycle has begun – can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this episode of Opportunity Express. New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift Since late 2020, driven by the explosive growth in demand due to electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices skyrocketed from 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. The lure of massive profits attracted numerous manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamics and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustment, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again. Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been raised...
Data source: Company announcements
Albemarle's unique advantage lies in being the only company globally that simultaneously controls and operates both the world’s best lithium mines and salt lakes.This gives it an extremely solid risk resistance capability and pricing power, regardless of changes in technological routes or geopolitical shifts.
Other major competitors currently cannot match Albemarle's level of control:
$Sociedad Quimica Y Minera De Chile (SQM.US)$ : It also holds development rights to the Atacama salt lake but lacks top-tier hard rock lithium mines and is subject to significant constraints from Chilean authorities due to historical reasons.
$GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$ : Its strengths mainly lie in the smelting segment; its resource layout started relatively late, with fewer core high-quality resources, most of which are still under development.
$TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK)$ : It remains a shareholder of Greenbushes but with reduced influence, and its stake in SQM is more of a financial investment, lacking direct operation of a top wholly-owned salt lake project.
Capital expenditure reduction leads to improved financial performance.
In response to the industry's downturn, Albemarle enforced stringent capital discipline. Its capital expenditure dropped from a high of $3 billion in 2023 to $2.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to further decline to approximately $1 billion in 2025. The decisive spending cuts have fortified Albemarle's safety net during the prolonged industry winter.
2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn and entered a reversal cycle. $Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the world’s lithium king, it controls the highest quality and lowest cost combination of lithium resources globally, while also possessing refining capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.In April 2025, the company’s stock price bottomed out at $48 before surging threefold, breaking through the $150 mark, capturing significant attention from investors. During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources between 2020-2022, ALB once approached $320 before entering a prolonged adjustment phase. A new lithium cycle has begun – can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this episode of Opportunity Express. New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift Since late 2020, driven by the explosive growth in demand due to electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices skyrocketed from 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. The lure of massive profits attracted numerous manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamics and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustment, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again. Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been raised...
Data source: Company announcement
The company’s free cash flow improved from significant negative values in each quarter of 2024 to turn positive at $100 million by the third quarter of 2025.Albemarle expects to achieve positive free cash flow of $300-400 million in fiscal year 2025; if lithium prices rebound to $15 per kilogram of lithium carbonate (RMB 108,000 per ton), the full-year adjusted EBITDA margin has the potential to reach 30% or higher.
2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn and entered a reversal cycle. $Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the world’s lithium king, it controls the highest quality and lowest cost combination of lithium resources globally, while also possessing refining capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.In April 2025, the company’s stock price bottomed out at $48 before surging threefold, breaking through the $150 mark, capturing significant attention from investors. During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources between 2020-2022, ALB once approached $320 before entering a prolonged adjustment phase. A new lithium cycle has begun – can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this episode of Opportunity Express. New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift Since late 2020, driven by the explosive growth in demand due to electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices skyrocketed from 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. The lure of massive profits attracted numerous manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamics and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustment, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again. Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been raised...
Data source: Company announcement
However, it should be noted that after the tumultuous cycle from 2020-2022, it may be difficult for lithium carbonate prices to return to RMB 600,000 per ton.Having weathered the洗礼of the previous cycle, lithium has transitioned from being a minor chemical metal to a crucial energy metal. With the introduction of futures markets, the improvement of long-term agreement mechanisms, and the deepening of supply chain dynamics, the industry has entered a mature phase.
If lithium prices continue to recover, marginal production capacity worldwide (such as low-grade lepidolite) will quickly resume operations. This potential release of supply will act as a ceiling to prevent sharp increases in lithium prices.
Technical Analysis
Since hitting bottom at the end of April 2025, ALB has continued to rebound and has been trading above the MA250 bull-bear dividing line since September 2025. The rally after September has largely been supported by MA10, with brief pullbacks testing MA20 and two pullbacks testing MA50. Overall, the upward trend remains intact, with resistance above near the previous high of $152.
After reaching a recent high last Friday, the stock pulled back somewhat on Monday due to a sharp drop in precious metals, briefly falling below MA10 but closing above it. If consolidation continues, watch whether MA20 can provide effective support.
2025 is undoubtedly the 'year of commodities.' While precious metals like gold and silver continue to hit new highs, lithium, as a key energy metal, has also emerged from a prolonged downturn and entered a reversal cycle. $Albemarle (ALB.US)$Known as the world’s lithium king, it controls the highest quality and lowest cost combination of lithium resources globally, while also possessing refining capacity spread across the globe, holding a pivotal position within the industry.In April 2025, the company’s stock price bottomed out at $48 before surging threefold, breaking through the $150 mark, capturing significant attention from investors. During the explosive upward cycle of lithium resources between 2020-2022, ALB once approached $320 before entering a prolonged adjustment phase. A new lithium cycle has begun – can Albemarle regain its former strength? Let’s dive into this episode of Opportunity Express. New Cycle Begins: AI-Driven Demand Shift Since late 2020, driven by the explosive growth in demand due to electric vehicles, lithium carbonate prices skyrocketed from 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton. The lure of massive profits attracted numerous manufacturers to enter the mining sector, reversing the supply-demand dynamics and causing the lithium price bubble to burst. After nearly three years of adjustment, the lithium resource industry has undergone significant changes once again. Just a few years ago, the entire battery industry was still dominated by power batteries used in electric vehicles.The energy storage market is replacing power batteries as the core driver of lithium demand growth, with its growth rate far surpassing that of the new energy vehicle sector.The forecast for global energy storage battery shipments in 2025 has been raised...
Risk Disclosure: This content does not constitute a research report and is for reference only. It is not intended as a basis for any investment decision. The information provided herein does not comprehensively describe the securities, markets, or developments mentioned. While the sources of information are considered reliable, no guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the content above. Additionally, no assurance is given regarding the accuracy of any statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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