In Collaboration with Amazon! OpenAI Ecosystem Expansion Continues

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Stop focusing solely on NVIDIA and Google! This industry chain is starting to gain prominence.

Over the past month, AI investment has undergone a dramatic paradigm shift.

As Google reshapes the AI landscape with its full-stack ecosystem, in contrast to OpenAI's reliance on external computing resources,U.S. equity funds have started to "abandon" the OpenAI chain since November, shifting their focus to the Google chain.

From the recent market trends, it is not difficult to observe that the stock prices of companies associated with OpenAI have been under significant pressure — this private company’s operations and partnership businesses mainly involve $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ 、 $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ 、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ and $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、 $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ etc.; meanwhile, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ the robust momentum has not only driven up its own stock price but also propelled the 'Google core chain' $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ 。

This market upheaval has arrived swiftly and fiercely. Just a month ago, OpenAI was still seen as a golden touch, leading a surge in related concept stocks. However, now its association has shifted from being an 'aura' to becoming a heavy 'burden.' Considering that this unicorn company has been a cornerstone supporting the three-year AI bull market in U.S. equities, the shaking of this belief carries profound implications.

Brett Ewing, Chief Market Strategist at First Franklin Financial Services, bluntly stated: 'OpenAI's veil has been lifted — complex capital structures, circular transactions, and debt issues are now exposed. While Google may face similar challenges, OpenAI's situation appears more extreme, triggering a fundamental collapse in how the market perceives it.'

New Winners Emerge! The AI hardware supply chain outperforms both the OpenAI and Google industrial chains.

More notably, as the competition between Google and OpenAI intensifies, The true king has emerged — the AI hardware supply chain, $Coherent (COHR.US)$ 、 $Ciena (CIEN.US)$ 、 $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ 、 $Astera Labs (ALAB.US)$ with a group of companies rising strongly, a classic "sell shovels" strategy, whether OpenAI wins or Google wins, or AWS rises in the future, they will all need faster transmission lines, more efficient optical modules, and stronger network switches.

Previously,"NVIDIA and Google in 'God-like Battle'! The Optical Communication Industry Quietly Reaps Huge Profits – What Opportunities Exist in the Hong Kong and US Stock Markets?"This article also mentioned that competition among tech giants is becoming increasingly fierce, further solidifying the logic of 'hardware as king.'Whether choosing the GPU or TPU route, it essentially represents the extreme optimization of energy, bandwidth, and computing power — meaning the rate of consumption of underlying resources will only increase exponentially.

Notably, as a key component in enabling high-speed interconnects for Google's TPU clusters, optical communication and OCS directly support the growing demand for computational power, emerging as the most predictable segment within the industry chain. According to Guangfa Overseas, NVIDIA may introduce CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology in one version of the Scale-UP interconnect under the Rubin Ultra architecture by 2027.

Overall,The sustained boom in the optical communication-related industrial chain, as the invisible "cornerstone" of the AI era's "information superhighway," is closely tied to the accelerated development of the AI industry.In fact, driven by the high-speed data transmission demands generated from training and inference of large-scale AI models, optical communication has become one of the main solutions to surpass the physical limitations of electrical transmission.

Previously, Niuniu also compiled a list of companies within the optical communication industrial chain on the Hong Kong and US stock markets for fellow investors' reference:

1. Optical chips: The jewel in the crown

This segment represents the highest technological barriers and most substantial profit margins. In AI data centers, electrical signals must be converted into optical signals for high-speed transmission, which relies on various DSPs (digital signal processors) and laser driver chips.

Leading Players: $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ and $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ Broadcom is the absolute leader, almost monopolizing the high-end PAM4 DSP market and serving as an indispensable supplier for NVIDIA and Google data centers.

As one of the largest suppliers of ASICs for hyperscale computing centers, Broadcom's stock price has surged 74% year-to-date. CNBC noted that Broadcom is tightly connected with Google through its ASIC business, assisting in the design and manufacturing of Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). These chips form the core of Google’s internal AI infrastructure and are considered strong competitors to NVIDIA’s Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) in handling AI workloads.

Marvell's core business lies in the "brain" of optical modules — DSP.All high-speed optical modules rely on DSP for error correction, compensation, and noise reduction, determining how far optical signals can be transmitted, how low the bit error rate is, and how much power is consumed. Industry demand for 800G and 1.6T continues to rise: inference is moving toward long text, video, and multimodal applications, with bandwidth and storage pressures mounting. Interconnects between data centers (ZR/ZR+) are also upgrading. In the short term, although the market is discussing new forms like LPO and CPO, limited by distance, yield rates, and system modification costs, DSP remains the dominant solution.This means that the hotter AI becomes, the more Marvell, as the "intersection brain," will be in demand.

However, Benchmark recently downgraded Marvell’s rating from Buy to Hold, stating with high confidence that the company has lost Amazon's next-generation Trainium3 and Trainium4 designs, which have been transferred to Taiwan-based Alchip Technologies.

Rising star in high-speed interconnects: $Astera Labs (ALAB.US)$ Focused on PCIe and CXL connectivity solutions, addressing the transmission bottleneck of the "last centimeter" between chips.

Astera Labs, a semiconductor company specializing in data center interconnect solutions, is gradually becoming a key player in the AI infrastructure ecosystem. The company's core technology focuses on interconnect technologies for high-performance computing and data centers, aiming to optimize data transmission efficiency within data centers and address the "memory wall" problem in high-performance computing.

Previously, reports suggested that Amazon Web Services’ self-developed chip, Trainium 4, may shift to adopt NVLink technology, a development that would be negative for ALAB.The main reason is that the market had generally anticipated Amazon would continue with the UALink interconnect solution. ALAB is a key enabler in the UALink ecosystem, focusing on products such as uSwitch, PCIe Retimer, and CXL fabric. Given that ALAB does not have a presence in NVLink switching technology, market concerns persist that if NVLink becomes mainstream, the space for the UALink ecosystem could be squeezed, potentially impacting ALAB’s future performance.

The invisible veins behind the explosion of AI computing power: $Credo Technology (CRDO.US)$ is a company providing high-speed connectivity solutions, dominating the field of AI-driven high-speed data connections.

If NVIDIA is considered the "heart" in the AI chip domain, then Credo serves as the "blood vessels" connecting these hearts.

Credo Technology plays a pivotal role in the field of high-speed data connectivity for AI data centers. The company offers a variety of products, including optical components and data network chips,but its Active Electrical Cables (AECs) business is currently the most closely watched segment.

Credo's success is largely attributed to its absolute leadership in the AEC market. AEC, a copper-cable-based connection technology invented by Credo, is used to connect AI servers with network switches and represents a critical component for high-speed data transmission within AI data centers. Compared to traditional fiber optics, AEC is considered more reliable and consumes less power; compared to traditional passive copper cables, it supports longer transmission distances.

Furthermore, the transition cycle from 800G to 1.6T is underway, with advancements in technological pathways such as Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), Linear-drive Pluggable Optics (LPO), and silicon photonics,presenting companies like Credo, which possess core technologies in underlying SerDes and DSP, with ongoing opportunities for product iteration and market share growth.

In the race for AI compute power, high-speed connectivity technologies (SerDes + optical interconnects) have become a key competitive arena. Leveraging its technological expertise and strategic positioning in SerDes and optical interconnects (such as AEC), Credo is poised to emerge as a core player in this field.

In addition, $MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI.US)$、 $Semtech (SMTC.US)$are the two leading companies in analog chips, offering TIA (transimpedance amplifier) and Driver (driver chip). Both are driving the LPO technology. MACOM has exceptionally strong semiconductor processes, while Semtech stands out with its Tri-Edge analog CDR technology, which is highly suitable for low-power scenarios.

$POET Technologies (POET.US)$ is a company specializing in the design and development of high-speed optical modules, optical engines, and light source products,serving the artificial intelligence systems market and hyperscale data centers. The company develops photonic integrated solutions based on its patented platform—the POET Optical Interposer™, which enables seamless integration of electronic and photonic devices on a single chip through advanced wafer-level semiconductor manufacturing processes.

2. Optical Transmission Modules and Components: A Classic 'Selling Picks and Shovels' Business

Chips need to be packaged into modules to be usable. With 800G modules becoming standard and 1.6T modules on the verge of mass production, demand in this sector is showing exponential growth.

Established giants: $Lumentum (LITE.US)$and $Coherent (COHR.US)$providing core optical components such as lasers, forming the cornerstone of the supply chain.

Lumentum is one of the biggest winners of Google's AI boom, primarily because it specializes in the "high-performance network foundation system" that is deeply integrated with Google's TPU AI computing clusters — specifically, the indispensable optical interconnects, namely OCS (optical circuit switches) + high-speed optical components. As the number of TPUs increases by an order of magnitude, its shipments grow exponentially.

Coherent is one of the world’s largest suppliers of optical modules. They offer high-speed modules (such as 400G, 800G, and future 1.6T modules) for data center interconnections. In AI clusters built by companies like NVIDIA, Coherent's high-speed optical interconnect products serve as the crucial 'arteries' enabling efficient data transmission between GPUs.

Connector giants: $Amphenol (APH.US)$Despite its low profile, its high-density connectors are the invisible champion behind AI server racks.

Amphenol is a global leader in the manufacturing of connectors and interconnect systems, with business segments covering communication solutions, interconnect and sensor systems, and harsh environment solutions. The company provides customers with high-speed, highly reliable connection solutions.

On August 4, 2025, Amphenol announced that it would acquire CommScope's broadband connectivity and cable business unit (CCS) for $10.5 billion in an all-cash deal, including debt. This represents Amphenol’s largest transaction to date.The acquisition is expected to elevate Amphenol to become one of the leading suppliers of global communication infrastructure.

Overall, in the current AI computing power race, optical interconnects and high-speed copper cables are key bottlenecks. Amphenol’s 112G/224G high-speed connection solutions serve as the indispensable "arteries" for building AI clusters, such as NVIDIA’s GB200 system.

Established optical communications company: $Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI.US)$Awaiting significant growth in optical modules next year.

Applied Optoelectronics is a manufacturer specializing in optical communication products, primarily serving the data center and fiber optic communication markets. As a U.S.-based optical module supplier, the company has leveraged years of localized production capacity, highly automated production lines, and technological advantages to gradually emerge as a core supplier of 400G and 800G optical modules for cloud computing giants. With the continuous rise in AI computing demand and large-scale expansion of global cloud vendor data centers, the company is poised for a new wave of substantial business growth.

First Shanghai Securities noted that the company’s 400G single-mode optical module has passed AWS certification and has already begun substantive shipments, with a significant increase in shipment volumes expected by Q4 2025. The 800G single-mode optical module is also nearing the final stages of customer validation, with bulk orders at the ten-thousand-unit level anticipated for final testing and certification. We believe that the company’s collaboration with AWS has made substantive progress, and its optical module business is expected to experience significant growth in 2026.

AI Optical Communication Leader: $CIG (06166.HK)$

Cambridge Technology focuses on optical modules as its core business, specializing in high-speed optical communication and data center solutions. Currently, the company is aggressively advancing the scaled delivery of 800G optical modules while actively developing cutting-edge technologies such as 1.6T optical modules, CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), and LPO (Linear Drive Pluggable Optics). Its primary customers include North American cloud service providers and global telecommunications equipment leaders.

In terms of revenue structure, optical module business dominates, with the 800G product becoming the core growth engine. The company expects to deliver 600,000 units of 800G optical modules to Cisco by 2025 and has successfully entered Meta's supply chain, with deliveries expected to begin in February 2026. Additionally, through its production bases in Malaysia and Mexico, Cambridge Technology actively addresses the international trade environment, with overseas revenue accounting for up to 94%, deeply integrating into the global high-end optical module supply chain system.

3. Switches and Network Equipment: The Highways of Data

When tens of thousands of GPUs or TPUs are interconnected, high-performance switches are required to manage traffic flow.

The Invisible Manufacturing Giant Behind Switches: $Celestica (CLS.US)$ is a top-tier global electronics manufacturing service provider. In the wave of optical communications and AI, it primarily enters the market through its HPS division. Unlike Cisco and Arista, which design network architectures and software systems, Celestica is responsible for manufacturing high-performance switches and servers either for these major companies or directly for cloud giants.

As AI clusters demand transmission speeds of 400G or even 800G, the hardware design of switches becomes extremely complex (heat dissipation, signal integrity). Celestica has mastered the assembly and manufacturing processes for these advanced switches.

The King of Ethernet: $Arista Networks (ANET.US)$ is the preferred choice for AI Ethernet switches, competing and complementing NVIDIA’s InfiniBand solutions, while being deeply integrated with major cloud giants.

Traditional Giant: $Cisco (CSCO.US)$ Although slower in transformation, it still dominates the enterprise market.

4. Critical Infrastructure: Fiber Optics, Packaging and Testing, and Manufacturing

This segment falls under 'infrastructure' and 'contract manufacturing.' While it may not be as explosive as chips, it benefits from stable performance.

Manufacturing (Contract): $Fabrinet (FN.US)$ is the 'Taiwan Semiconductor' of the optical communication field, providing precision manufacturing for major companies like Lumentum, with performance highly correlated to industry prosperity.$Tower Semiconductor (TSEM.US)$ Holds a competitive advantage in silicon photonics manufacturing processes.

Testing and Measurement: $Keysight Technologies (KEYS.US)$ Supplies testing equipment for all high-speed optical modules and chips, playing an indispensable role as a 'provider of essential tools' during the R&D phase.

Fiber Optics: $Corning (GLW.US)$ provides the physical medium for transmission; is a global leader in optical fiber preforms and $YOFC (06869.HK)$ optical fiber supplier.

Optical transmission equipment: $Ciena (CIEN.US)$ specializes in long-distance optical transmission, addressing the interconnection needs between data centers (DCI).

Fiber optic communication: $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ is one of the few companies in the United States with a nationwide high-capacity fiber optic backbone network, owning both terrestrial and submarine long-haul fiber networks. Globally, it has approximately 450,000 route miles of fiber optic cable, connected to metropolitan fiber networks, serving over 60 countries and regions. Lumen revealed that due to the booming demand for artificial intelligence, fiber optic networks have become increasingly important and scarce in AI data processing.

High-density fiber optic connectors:CMB Securities previously issued a research report stating that the demand for AI computing power is robust. $TIME INTERCON (01729.HK)$ With an excellent position in MPO optical communication and AI server sectors, it is poised to embrace high-quality growth. The MPO business is the core profit source of Converge Technology, with industry-leading technology. Currently, 16-core MPO products have achieved bulk shipments and secured a place in the overseas cloud supply chain.making the company a key supplier within the Google ecosystem.The company’s MPO product demand remains strong (fiber optic revenue grew significantly by 43% year-on-year in 2024 and 35% year-on-year in H1 2025), and its profitability far exceeds the company's average level. Given the ongoing expansion of major clients, overseas capacity construction, and technological upgrades, the bank expects the MPO business to maintain rapid growth in the coming years without concern.

Summary

Of course, the fading of OpenAI’s "halo" does not necessarily mean that the "OpenAI chain" will remain weak in the long term; there are already significant doubts about this in the market. Objectively speaking, companies like Oracle and AMD do not rely entirely on OpenAI—they operate in fields with strong demand, and their products can still find customers even without OpenAI. The latest analysis from Wells Fargo & Co indicates thatthe current weakness in some stock prices within the "OpenAI chain" may present a good buying opportunity.

Kieran Osborne, Chief Investment Officer at Mission Wealth, pointed out, "I see substantial untapped potential and room for penetration across various industries, which will ultimately support growth. The ultimate goal of these companies is to achieve profitability, and as long as they are moving in that direction, it can sustain the investment rationale."

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