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Crypto Weekly Recap | Expectations of Rate Cuts Heat Up! Crypto Market Stages Strong Rebound, Bitcoin Reclaims Levels Above $90,000; 'Wooden Sister' Continues to Increase Holdings in Crypto Stocks, Betting on a 'Substantial Reversal' in Inflation

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility. Earlier this year, Bitcoin surged above a record-breaking USD 126,000 but later corrected sharply to near USD 80,000, marking a substantial decline. This week, under the combined influence of macroeconomic conditions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the crypto market temporarily halted its downward trend, with Bitcoin rebounding above USD 91,000.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market showed a volatile upward trend this week. As of now, Bitcoin is consolidating above USD 91,000, with weekly gains of approximately 8%. $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ trading narrowly around the $3,000 mark with weekly gains exceeding 9%.

Key Events of the Week

Expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve continue to rise, bringing a recovery to the cryptocurrency market.

The cryptocurrency market has seen a notable recovery recently, with Bitcoin rebounding to $90,000. Analysts suggest that the main reason for the market's resurgence is,the excessive decline in previous months, leading to an oversold rebound for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.Additionally,Rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have also boosted bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.。

According to the CME 'FedWatch Tool,' as of this writing, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 84.9%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate stands at 15.1%. Additionally, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by January next year is 67.2%, maintaining the current rate is 11.2%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut stands at 21.6%.

In the latest developments, Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, has emerged as the top candidate for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Analysts note that as one of President Trump’s key confidants, if Hassett assumes the role of Fed Chair, he is likely to steer a more 'dovish' monetary policy.

Regarding the reasons behind Bitcoin's recent plunge,Nobel laureate in economics, Paul Krugman, believes that Trump himself is to blame for this round of Bitcoin's crash. It was Trump’s victory in the fall of last year that drove Bitcoin's previous rally.

In his latest article, Krugman pointed out that Trump's declining approval ratings are negatively impacting Bitcoin's price. He argued that since Trump promised during his campaign to support the digital asset industry, the decline in this leader’s popularity will inevitably affect Bitcoin’s price. Krugman wrote: 'Trump’s influence is clearly waning, and Bitcoin’s price—which has effectively become a bet on ‘Trumpism’—has plummeted accordingly.'

The so-called 'Trump trade' refers to traders buying cryptocurrencies due to Trump’s election and policy push. Bitcoin’s price soared just before Trump's election victory and surged further after he took office. Krugman further noted that Bitcoin has failed to find practical use cases and behaves more like a highly volatile tech stock.

‘Woodie’ Cathie Wood once again increased her holdings in crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase, Bullish, Circle, and Robinhood, betting on a 'substantial reversal' in inflation.

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest continued to accumulate crypto-related stocks on Wednesday, purchasing approximately $16.47 million worth of $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ shares, totaling 62,166 shares, distributed across $ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US)$ 、 $ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW.US)$ and $ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF.US)$ three funds.

Coinbase is currently the fifth-largest holding in ARKK, with a total value of approximately $392 million, accounting for 5.2% of the portfolio. Due to recent pullbacks, Coinbase's stock price has fallen by 26.7% over the past month.

Ark also increased its position in $ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB.US)$ Bitcoin ETFs, purchasing 39,400 shares (approximately $1.17 million). Recently, Ark has been consistently acquiring exposure to crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and $Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US)$ 、 $Bullish (BLSH.US)$ 、 $Circle (CRCL.US)$ 、 $Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ , aiming to capitalize on the window of opportunity following significant sector corrections.

Cathie Wood stated on X that the liquidity squeeze currently pressuring the crypto and AI sectors is expected to reverse in the coming weeks, citing three key reasons:

1: The Federal Reserve may conclude quantitative tightening (QT) at the December 10 meeting;

2: Market liquidity will gradually return as the U.S. government shutdown issue is resolved;

3: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates again next month.

In a previous webinar, Wood noted that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield already reflects a 'significant retreat' in inflation over the past month and pointed out that 'deflationary forces' in the technology sector are strengthening. 'Once the impact of tariffs is absorbed next year, we would not be surprised to see real breakthrough declines in inflation.'

Prediction markets emerge as a new focal point, with Robinhood securing a key license and its stock price surging.

$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$ On Wednesday, the stock closed up 10.93%, outperforming nearly 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index in terms of gains.

This week, Robinhood has already risen by 19.48%, recovering nearly half of its losses in November. Year-to-date, the stock has surged 244.07%, ranking second in the S&P 500 Index, only behind the recently hot Western Digital (+251.14%).

Earlier this week, Robinhood announced on its official website that the company had reached an agreement with Susquehanna International Group to jointly acquire 90% of the shares of the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange MIAXdx. The new agreement will allow Robinhood and Susquehanna to directly control the infrastructure needed for prediction market contracts, while MIAX will retain a 10% stake in the new company to enter the prediction market.

Robinhood executive JB Mackenzie stated, 'The company sees strong demand from customers for prediction markets. Our investment in infrastructure will enable us to provide customers with a better experience and more innovative products.'

Analysts at financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald noted in a report on Wednesday that although the scale of Kalshi contracts offered by Robinhood is relatively small, it has already had a significant impact on its business. 'Prediction markets have become the fastest-growing product line in Robinhood’s history in terms of revenue. Within a year of its launch, more than 1 million customers have traded over 9 billion contracts.'

According to public data compiled by Dune Analytics last month, as of the week ending October 19, the notional trading volume of U.S.-based prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $2 billion for the first time, surpassing the frenzied trading levels seen during last year's election period.

Viewpoint

ARK Invest maintains a Bitcoin price target of $1.5 million by 2030, expecting improved liquidity to drive market recovery.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood reiterated the company’s optimistic forecast for Bitcoin, maintaining the $1.5 million price target under the 2030 "bull-case scenario" without change.

ARK expects that with the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, approximately $300 billion in liquidity will return to the market over the next 5-6 weeks. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is planning to end quantitative tightening on December 1 and shift to quantitative easing, which will alleviate the current "liquidity crunch" impacting the cryptocurrency and AI markets. Wood stated that although the development of stablecoins has partially diverted Bitcoin's role as asafe-haven asset,Productionthe stronger-than-expected rise in gold prices has offset this impact, keeping its bull-case forecast unchanged.

"Wall Street Oracle" Tom Lee: Bitcoin is very likely to reach $100,000 again within the year, and "perhaps" could set a new high.

On November 27, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in an interview with CNBC that BTC is very likely to reach $100,000 before the end of the year. Regarding whether it will reclaim the all-time high of $125,100 set in October, he only offered a "maybe" judgment, but added that "Bitcoin's best days are still ahead." On the 21st, Tom Lee stated that he still believes Bitcoin will reach $150,000-$200,000 by the end of January next year.

Galaxy Digital Founder: Bitcoin Could Reach $100,000 by Year-End but Will Face Significant Selling Pressure

Mike Novogratz, founder of well-known crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, stated in a podcast that he remains confident Bitcoin can return to $100,000 by the end of the year, but there will be significant selling pressure at that time.

This is because the psychological impact of the sharp decline on the market will be medium-term. Meanwhile, Novogratz noted that with clearer crypto regulations and the entry of traditional financial giants, the market will undergo deep differentiation in the future, with tokens that can provide value being favored.

Matrixport: The divergence between gold and Bitcoin may persist.

Matrixport released a chart indicating that, based on the implied pricing of federal funds futures, the market now expects an 84% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on December 10, with the likelihood of maintaining rates unchanged in January next year rising to 65%. Under such rate path expectations, even if a rate cut occurs in December, the overall accommodative stance of monetary policy would still be limited.

Compared to Bitcoin, gold exhibits a higher correlation with U.S. fiscal deficits and the pace of Treasury issuance, serving more directly as a hedge against fiscal expansion and rate cut expectations. Bitcoin, on the other hand, relies more heavily on tangible inflows of new capital, which have yet to show significant release in the current environment. Under these conditions, the divergence in performance between gold and Bitcoin is likely to persist in the short term.

Crypto Sector Concept Tracking

MSTR Faces Potential 'Exclusion' from Index, JPMorgan Research Report 'Unexpectedly Affected,' Crypto Community Calls for 'Boycott'

Opposition to the financial services giant JPMorgan is rapidly growing among the Bitcoin community and supporters of Strategy, with calls to 'boycott JPMorgan' gaining momentum this week.

The anger within the Bitcoin community stems from a report that MSCI (formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International, responsible for determining corporate index inclusion) may exclude crypto treasury companies from its indices as early as January 2026. This information was shared by JPMorgan in a research note.

In response, Grant Cardone, a Bitcoin supporter and real estate investor, stated, 'I just withdrew $20 million from Chase (a JPMorgan subsidiary) and am suing them for credit card violations.' As the online boycott movement heats up, Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser also chimed in, saying, 'Take down JPMorgan, buy Strategy and BTC.' Strategy entered the Nasdaq 100 Index in December 2024 (comprising the top 100 tech companies by market capitalization) and thus benefits from passive investment flows.Index base GoldLarge-scale capital inflows. In response to the adjustments proposed by MSCI, Saylor publicly stated: 'Strategy is not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company.' 'Funds and trusts passively hold assets; holding companies merely hold investments.' He further noted that Strategy is a 'Bitcoin-backed structured financial company.'

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