Mixed Earnings Reports from Tech Giants! Will Amazon Lead the Pack After Its Results?

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Earnings reports for U.S.-listed AI application stocks are being released in rapid succession! Monetization capability emerges as the key to success— which companies are likely to stand out?

This week marks a "Super Week" for U.S. tech stocks — the 'Mag 7' giants, including Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, will release their earnings reports in quick succession, capturing global market attention.

In addition to the earnings of these tech giants, multiple AI application stocks will also unveil their latest quarterly results in the coming week.This is a pivotal moment to validate the progress of AI commercialization.

In the next six trading days, as many as 27 companies:$ServiceNow (NOW.US)$ 、 $Roblox (RBLX.US)$ 、 $Reddit (RDDT.US)$ 、 $Cloudflare (NET.US)$ 、 $Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ 、 $Atlassian (TEAM.US)$ 、 $Twilio (TWLO.US)$ 、 $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ 、 $Hims & Hers Health (HIMS.US)$ 、 $Shopify (SHOP.US)$ 、 $Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$ 、 $Tempus AI (TEM.US)$ 、 $Zeta Global (ZETA.US)$ 、 $Digital Turbine (APPS.US)$ 、 $Pinterest (PINS.US)$ 、 $Unity Software (U.US)$ 、 $Applovin (APP.US)$ 、$Figma Inc (FIG.US)$ 、 $Duolingo (DUOL.US)$ 、 $Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$$HubSpot (HUBS.US)$、 $Klaviyo (KVYO.US)$ 、 $Datadog (DDOG.US)$ 、 $The Trade Desk (TTD.US)$ 、 $Doximity (DOCS.US)$ 、 $SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ 。

If the infrastructure layer provides the "computing power foundation" and the model platform layer builds the "intelligent brain,"then the application services layer represents the core segment of the AI industry chain where "value monetization" is realized.Compared with the previous two layers, the application services layer exhibits three prominent characteristics:

First, the commercial model is the most mature,with SaaS subscription and project customization models already market-proven;

second, the ability to deliver on performance is the strongest,backed by real revenue and profit rather than relying on conceptual promises;

third, the industry penetration speed is the fastest,with AI applications accelerating across finance, healthcare, education, and manufacturing.

This value transmission logic also determines the investment perspective at this layer: focusing on current performance rather than future expectations; prioritizing scenario implementation over technological pathways; and closely monitoring penetration progress instead of merely discussing market potential.This is precisely why the application services layer is regarded as offering a "high-certainty investment opportunity."

Looking ahead to this earnings season,which performance indicators should the market focus on for AI application stocks? How can investors best utilize options as a tool to capture opportunities?

Cloud data platform company ServiceNow

Cloud data platform company $ServiceNow (NOW.US)$ is set to release its earnings after the market close on October 28,with the market widely expecting third-quarter revenue to reach $3.357 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.02%, and earnings per share of $2.22, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7.30%.

Last Quarter Review:Amid the fervent wave of global enterprises heavily investing in AI technology, ServiceNow has garnered significant favor from corporate users with its cloud services embedded with generative AI. The company’s second-quarter cloud subscription sales grew by 23% year-over-year to reach $2.54 billion. In terms of market-focused order size,As of June 30, ServiceNow's current remaining performance obligations (a bookings-based measure of orders) increased by approximately 22% year-over-year.

This Quarter Outlook:Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its 'Overweight' rating on ServiceNow with a $1,200 price target (implying an approximate 26% upside), highlighting robust growth momentum in both federal government and enterprise channels. Checks with large platinum partners indicate that,Third-quarter results exceeded expectations, and growth momentum driven by budget absorption is expected to continue through the fourth quarter of 2025.

The firm remains confident in ServiceNow’s AI-driven platform expansion, particularly the adoption of intelligent agent tools like Now Assist, Fabric, and RaptorDB,believing the company is well-positioned to achieve or surpass its 2026 annual contract value target of $1 billion.Cantor emphasized ServiceNow’s sustained strong growth in U.S. federal government business, resilient demand, and margin expansion, expressing optimism about its long-term structural growth advantages in AI and intelligent automation.

Options Observation:Currently, the implied volatility for ServiceNow is ±8.04%, indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price movement of 8.04% following earnings; in comparison, the company's average stock price movement over the past 12 quarters has been ±6.39%, suggesting that the current option value of the stock is overvalued. 。

In the last nine earnings release days, ServiceNow’s stock price has shown a higher probability of rising, closing higher six out of nine times.The maximum increase was15.49%, and the maximum decrease was11.44%。

Based on the distribution of trading volumes and open interest for this week's expirations, options with higher trading volumes were mainly concentrated at the strike price of $942.5 in theput options., while open interest was concentrated at $942.56, $935, and $932.5 in theput options.

Gaming giant Roblox

"The First Metaverse Stock" $Roblox (RBLX.US)$ is set to release its earnings report before the market opens on October 30.The market broadly anticipates third-quarter revenue to reach $1.692 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 49.95%, with a per-share loss of $0.51, representing a 37% wider loss compared to the same period last year.

Last Quarter Review:Looking back at the previous quarter,Roblox delivered a performance marked by 'high growth and strong monetization':Daily active users surpassed 100 million for the first time, surging 41% year-over-year, while user engagement hours skyrocketed by 58%. Additionally, Roblox expanded its presence beyond gaming into social interactions, virtual events, and digital goods trading, creating a 'super platform' that enhances user stickiness and lifetime value.

This Quarter Outlook:Looking ahead to the new earnings season,Wedbush noted that Roblox's third-quarter results might exceed Wall Street expectations,attributable to increased user activity and improved monetization trends. However, management may remain cautious about its future outlook.

According to Similarweb data, the average number of concurrent online users in the third quarter increased by approximately 128% year-over-year, with daily active users of the application growing by 81%. The report noted that,this implies a daily active user count reaching between 135 million and 140 million, surpassing Wall Street's previous estimate of 128.1 million.Wedbush analysis indicates that these figures support expectations for bookings in the quarter to reach between $1.78 billion and $1.85 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected to range between $450 million and $475 million,both metrics exceeding market consensus forecasts.

Wedbush stated that recent popular games have highlighted the strength of the Roblox platform and its ability to drive organic engagement. Looking ahead,the company anticipates that its advertising business will create long-term upside potential, and an increase in developer revenue-sharing ratios may attract more major franchises to join.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that Roblox’s monthly active users will exceed 1 billion by 2030,noting that since 2018, the platform's user growth rate has increased approximately tenfold.

Options Observation:Currently, Roblox’s implied volatility is ±13.92%.indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price movement of 13.92% following earnings; in comparison, the company's average stock price movement over the past 12 quarters has been ±14.28%, suggesting that the current option value of the stock is Undervalued。

Out of the past nine earnings release days,Roblox shares have had a higher probability of rising,with gains recorded in five out of the nine instances.The maximum increase was19.89%, and the maximum decrease was22.06%。

Based on the distribution of trading volume and open interest for this week's expirations, the majority of traded options were concentrated at strike prices of $135 and $140 forcall options, while open interest was primarily focused on $135call options。

The 'Zhihu + Tieba' of the United States $Reddit (RDDT.US)$ is scheduled to release its earnings after the market closes on October 30.The market widely expects third-quarter revenue to reach $549 million, a year-over-year increase of 57.70%, with earnings per share at $0.512, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 220.19%.

Last Quarter Review:Reddit reported its latest second-quarter revenue at $500 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 78%, surpassing expectations by 17%, and marking the largest beat since its listing. Profitability also achieved a significant leap, with net income reaching $89 million, compared to a net loss of $10 million in the same period last year. The growth momentum stems from two core aspects:

Robust expansion of the user base: Global daily active users (DAU) increased by 21% year-over-year, reaching 110.4 million, slightly above analysts’ expectations of 109 million.

Significant improvement in monetization efficiency: Global average revenue per user (ARPU) reached $4.53, far exceeding expectations of $3.90. Optimizations in Reddit’s advertising system and the recovery of advertiser demand are yielding notable results.

This Quarter Outlook:Jefferies analysts believe,Strong advertising performance indicates that Reddit will continue to benefit from the rapid growth of performance products and small to medium-sized clients.They expect that Reddit's average revenue per user (ARPU) will remain the primary driver of its revenue growth, with revenue expansion aligning with the company’s ongoing cost control measures and leading EBITDA growth. The firm's web traffic data shows that U.S. online traffic resumed week-over-week growth throughout October, supporting continued quarter-over-quarter growth in daily active users for the fourth quarter.

Citi analysts raised their price target for the company and added it to their positive catalyst watchlist, signaling potential for significant upside. This follows positive channel checks for Reddit and high market anticipation for its Q3 earnings report.

The current market sentiment leans negative; however, revenue figures for October have remained robust.As a result, the market anticipates that results are likely to significantly exceed expectations, accompanied by positive guidance.

Options Observation:Currently, Reddit’s implied volatility stands at ±16.50%,indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price movement of 16.50% following earnings; in comparison, the company's average stock price movement over the past 12 quarters has been ±13.29%, suggesting that the current option value of the stock is overvalued. 。

In the past seven earnings release days, the maximum increase was 41.97%, while the maximum decline was 6.75%.

Based on the distribution of trading volume and open interest for this week's expirations, there is a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the most actively traded options concentrated around the strike price of $220.BullishandBearishOptions, with positions concentrated around the $225 strike.BullishOptions.

AI application leader Palantir

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$ is scheduled to release its earnings after the market closes on November 3.The market widely expects third-quarter revenue to reach $1.092 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 50.46%, with earnings per share at $0.11, reflecting an 84.17% year-over-year growth.

Last Quarter Review:Palantir’s quarterly revenue exceeded USD 1 billion for the first time in its history, with second-quarter EPS increasing by nearly 78%. The US commercial business segment, which the company refers to as its emerging core, saw a 93% revenue increase, while revenue from the US government grew by 53%.

The earnings guidance indicates that Palantir expects third-quarter revenue to reach another record high, with a minimum of USD 1.03 billion and a maximum of USD 1.087 billion, implying a year-over-year growth of 49.2% to 49.7%, outpacing the growth rate seen in the second quarter.

This Quarter Outlook:Piper Sandler analysts raised their target price from USD 182 to USD 201, reflecting the continued upward potential of this AI stock. While acknowledging that Palantir's valuation remains high, leaving little room for error, they believe the company has not yet reached its "growth peak" and see no obvious catalysts to halt the current momentum.

The analyst cited several reasons supporting a bullish outlook. He highlighted Palantir’s robust revenue base, with over USD 7 billion in signed contracts and an additional USD 4 billion in IDIQ (indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity) contracts. Additionally, he noted thatcommercial orders have achieved triple-digit growth this year.

Options Observation:Currently, Palantir’s implied volatility is ±11.03%,indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price movement of 11.03%; in comparison, the company's average stock price movement over the past 12 quarters has been ±17.12%, indicating that the current option value of the stock isUndervalued。

Out of the past nine earnings release days,Palantir’s stock price has had a higher probability of increase,closing higher six out of nine times, with the maximum increase being30.80%, and the maximum decrease was15.11%。

Based on the distribution of trading volumes and open interest set to expire next week, options with significant trading activity are primarily concentrated at the $200 strike price.call options,while open interest is concentrated at the $210call options.This indicates that investors are preparing for significant volatility as they await updates on AI trading, government contracts, and business growth. The market will also focus on management's outlook for the fourth quarter and 2026.

The image-sharing social platform Pinterest

$Pinterest (PINS.US)$ is scheduled to release its earnings after the market close on November 4. The consensus estimate projects third-quarter revenue to reach $1.048 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.67%, with earnings per share (EPS) at $0.10, reflecting a year-over-year growth of +117.40%.

Last Quarter Review:Pinterest’s second-quarter sales exceeded analysts' expectations, but earnings per share fell short of Wall Street's forecasts. Stagnant user growth in its core profit-generating markets—the U.S. and Canada—caused a sharp decline in the stock price.

However, it is worth noting that the main drivers of second-quarter performance growth were twofold: a surge in the Gen Z user base (which now accounts for more than half of the platform’s users).as well as the appeal of platform AI tools to advertisers—these tools can provide advertisers with personalized automated placement solutions.

Looking ahead, the company expects third-quarter revenue to be in the range of $1.03 billion to $1.05 billion, higher than analysts' forecast of $1.02 billion. Pinterest has currently established third-party advertising partnerships with Google, Amazon, and ad platform Magnite.

This Quarter Outlook:Stifel reiterated a 'Buy' rating and a $47 price target on Pinterest ahead of the company's third-quarter earnings announcement,noting that recent advertising research indicates an improvement in Q3 growth trends compared to Q2, with particularly strong performance in September.Although the firm warned that tougher year-over-year data and macroeconomic uncertainties could weigh on digital advertising stocks' Q4 guidance, it still emphasized that Pinterest remains a relative bright spot. Stifel stated that the platform continues to enhance its dual appeal to both users and advertisers, laying a solid foundation for increased user engagement and ad spending during the holiday season.

Options Observation:Currently, Pinterest's implied volatility is ±13.97%,indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price movement of 13.97%In comparison, the company's average stock price movement over the past 12 quarters was ±12.32%, indicating that the current option value of the stock isovervalued.

In the past nine earnings release days, Pinterest's stock price has had a lower probability of increase,rising in four out of nine instances, with the maximum increase being21.02%, and the maximum decrease was15.66%。

Based on the distribution of trading volume and open interest for options expiring next week, the most actively traded options are primarily concentrated around the $36 strike price forcall options, with positions concentrated in $35 and $40 call options.

Advertising leader Applovin

Mobile advertising giant $Applovin (APP.US)$ is set to release its earnings after the market closes on November 5. The market consensus expects third-quarter revenue to reach $1.336 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.54%, with earnings per share at $2.39, reflecting a 90.99% year-over-year growth.

Last Quarter Review: AppLovin’s Q2 revenue reached $1.259 billion, a year-over-year increase of 77%, surpassing market expectations; net profit surged to $820 million, marking a 164% year-over-year rise.

AppLovin has created a data network effect + economies of scale within the “AI + digital advertising” sector, driving up eCPM and ROI while rapidly amplifying EBITDA exponentially.

AppLovin forecasts third-quarter revenue to range between USD 1.32 billion and USD 1.34 billion, with the midpoint of the guidance provided by the company's management exceeding Wall Street's average estimate of approximately USD 1.31 billion.

However, recent reports indicate that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may be investigating this digital advertising technology company over its data collection processes. According to sources familiar with the matter, regulators are examining allegations that AppLovin violated service agreements with platform partners to push more targeted advertisements to consumers.

This Quarter Outlook:Wedbush analysts believe that AppLovin has repeatedly demonstrated its remarkable growth momentum, which is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, delivering impressive profit margins. Analysts predict that AppLovin will benefit from the ongoing momentum in the gaming industry this year due to an increase in the number of players, higher user acquisition (UA) spending, and the expansion of e-commerce operations.

International expansion by the end of the third quarter and the launch of a self-service tool on October 1st are expected to drive fourth-quarter results above our previous forecasts.AXON and its competitors have ample room for development within this ecosystem. AXON 2.0 is expected to maintain its leading position, achieving annual growth rates of 20% to 30% effortlessly through market expansion.

Morgan Stanley's channel research report on AppLovin shows,its non-gaming advertising ecosystem is rapidly taking shape, particularly showing strong performance in ad placements by e-commerce advertisers.The report primarily covers the following three key areas:

– Client Scale and Growth Trends

The AppLovin platform currently has approximately 600 to 700 non-gaming advertisers. Research forecasts that 200 to 300 new clients will be added each month in the fourth quarter, reflecting a significant increase in monthly growth. This trend indicates that more brands are choosing to join the AppLovin platform for testing campaigns ahead of the year-end shopping season, driving its e-commerce advertising ecosystem from an initial 'experimental phase' towards becoming a 'structured platform,' while gradually reducing reliance on the gaming industry.

– Advertising Budgets and Performance Validation

Among e-commerce advertisers who have participated in testing, some plan to increase their advertising budgets by up to 50% year-over-year during this year’s shopping season. This move reflects that the effectiveness of advertising on the AppLovin platform has been validated, with excellent return on investment, which in turn boosts budget confidence.

– Industry Structure and System Compatibility

Among non-gaming advertisers, consumer-facing categories such as Beauty, Health, and Electronics are the most active. These brands typically rely heavily on precise attribution and short-term return assessments, aligning closely with AppLovin's AXON data-driven advertising system, further enhancing the activity of ad placements within these categories.

Investors are paying closer attention to the impact on the company’s future performance following the launch of self-service tools in October.

Options Observation:Currently, AppLovin's implied volatility is ±15.63%, indicating that the options market is betting on a single-day price movement of 15.63%; in comparison, the company’s average stock price movement over the past 12 quarters has been ±20.35%, suggesting that the current option value for this stock is Undervalued。

Out of the past nine earnings release days,AppLovinthe probability of the stock price increasing has been very high, with the stock closing higher in eight out of those nine instances.The maximum increase was46.27%, and the maximum decrease was1.10%。

Based on the distribution of trading volumes and open interest for options expiring next week, the most actively traded options are concentrated at strike prices of $650 and $690 forcall options, while open interest is concentrated at $650 and $700 forcall options.

Overall, market sentiment during this round of the AI application earnings season has leaned towards optimism. However, following the significant rally in prior periods, valuations of these popular AI application software stocks have already priced in much of the upside. Whether this upward momentum can continue will hinge critically on earnings performance.

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