
Q: How does Chongyang Investment view the performance of the A-share mid-term report for 2025?
A: As of August 31, the mid-year reports for A-share listed companies have been fully disclosed, showing a performance characteristic of "overall still bottoming out, significant structural differentiation" in the first half of the year.From the perspective of overall performance, the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out.According to statistics from GF Securities, the year-on-year revenue growth rates for A-shares overall and non-financial enterprises in the first half of the year were -0.02% and -0.53%, respectively, showing some improvement compared to the first quarter. However, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates for net profit were 2.42% and 0.98%, respectively, which declined compared to the first quarter. From a quarterly perspective, the sequential growth rate for non-financial enterprises in the second quarter hit a seasonal low since 2010, with the net profit growth primarily contributed by financial enterprises. From the perspective of Return on Equity (ROE), the ROE (TTM) for A-shares overall and non-financial enterprises in the second quarter were 7.76% and 6.55%, also declining compared to the first quarter. A DuPont analysis indicates that while the net profit margin stabilized somewhat, the asset turnover ratio continued to decline, reflecting that the recovery of economic supply and demand requires more time. From a cash flow perspective, although the mid-year report for 2025 shows that corporate net cash flow has not yet turned positive, operating, investing, and financing cash flows have all improved. The free cash flow for non-financial real estate companies remains historically elevated, indicating a strong potential for dividends. Overall, the profitability of A-share listed companies is still in the process of bottoming out, and improvements in profitability will still depend on the revival of demand.From a structural perspective, high-tech companies and those engaged in overseas operations have performed well, while domestic consumption remains to recover.In terms of profit growth rates, the net profit growth rate for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board exceeded 20% in the second quarter this year, leading the entire market, with significant year-on-year profit growth in the high-tech sectors represented by the artificial intelligence industry chain, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals. From the demand perspective, the profitability of export-oriented enterprises has shown a clear advantage over domestically-oriented enterprises. For instance, the overseas 50 index experienced a year-on-year revenue growth rate of 12%, with ROE significantly rising by 0.6%, clearly outperforming the broader market. More broadly, according to statistics from CITIC Securities, listed companies with more than a 10% increase in the proportion of overseas business income over the past year are witnessing a gradual recovery in profit margins and ROE levels. Overseas operations are gradually becoming a core pillar of financial growth for some enterprises. Stocks exceeding market expectations have been concentrated in innovative and export-oriented companies in electronics, machinery, and healthcare. In contrast, companies in domestic demand sectors, such as durable consumer goods, have seen a noticeable decline in growth rates in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, reflecting the ongoing need for recovery in domestic consumption. For industries facing concerns about involution, we still need to wait for capacity utilization rates to hit bottom. Overall, the profits of A-share listed companies are gradually solidifying at the bottom, with innovation and overseas operations becoming new growth points for profitability. Looking ahead, with the introduction of more favorable growth-stabilizing policies and the gradual stabilization of the economic fundamentals, A-share listing profits are expected to continue to rebound.
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