The iPhone 17 is here! Have you placed an order with Apple?

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One week to go until Apple's event! The iPhone 17 is about to launch—when is the best time to buy?

As we enter September, the biggest event in the tech world is undoubtedly $Apple (AAPL.US)$ the annual fall product launch event.

At 1 a.m. Beijing time on September 10, Apple will hold its Fall 2025 launch event,The theme of this launch event is 'Awe dropping'.

By this point, many fellow investors are likely wonderingWhat are the highlights of this event? Will the iPhone 17 series provide a short- or medium-term boost to Apple’s stock price? How will Wall Street analysts view this event?These questions will be answered one by one.

What are the highlights of this event?

Although Apple did not disclose which new products will be unveiled in the invitation, as per tradition, the main highlight of Apple’s September event is always the new generation of iPhone.

According to multiple media reports,The iPhone 17 series will include four models:the standard iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and the all-new iPhone 17 Air.Among the lineup, the iPhone 17 Air will replace the existing Plus model, becoming the thinnest and lightest iPhone Apple has ever made.

Aside from the iPhone,Apple is also expected to unveil an upgraded Apple Watch product line,including the Apple Watch Series 11, Ultra 3, and SE 3. This will mark the first time in three years that Apple updates all Apple Watch models simultaneously. Among them, the Ultra 3 is anticipated to feature a larger screen and faster charging support, making it the most noteworthy upgrade in the series.

The AirPods Pro 3 may also make an appearance at this event, marking the first update to the AirPods Pro version in three years.

This event will kick off Apple's three-year major revamp of the iPhone, signifying a significant shift in product strategy for the tech giant’s most important revenue stream.

Learning from history: How does Apple's stock perform after new product launches?

Although historical data cannot predict the future, it still holds some reference value in financial markets.

Based on fellow investor observations, since 2010, Apple’s stock performance on the day of new product releases has mostly trended downward.Since the debut of the iPhone 4, over 70% of Apple's stock movements on iPhone release days have ended in losses.

After the product launch, market expectations are released, causing stock prices to fall. The market will be filled with various criticisms, such as the new iPhone being too expensive, screen issues, design flaws, and so on. Over the past decade, this phenomenon has occurred every year, leading to a temporary decline in Apple's stock price.

For example, on September 8, 2022, during the day of the product launch, Apple's stock price rose steadily in the morning but suddenly plummeted in the afternoon, eventually closing lower.

However, within 60 days after the launch event, there were 11 instances of increases out of 15 occurrences, with the highest gain reaching 20%.This is because the market realizes that no matter how loud the criticism is, people continue to flock to buy the new iPhone.

If investors assess the situation clearly after the launch and act accordingly within 60 days—buying Apple stock before November—the chances of making money could be as high as 70%.Moreover, holding the stock through December and January, which is the traditional peak sales season in the U.S., could further stimulate upward momentum for consumer stocks like Apple.

Typically, from Halloween to Christmas is the peak consumption period. Investors generally believe that iPhone shipments will benefit from the year-end holiday shopping season, and if demand is strong, there may be a surge in the stock price ahead of the end-of-year rally.

Currently, judging by the distribution of Apple's open interest, options trading for Apple remains active. Looking at the open interest for the week of the launch (expiring on September 12),a large number of CALL options have accumulated at the $240 strike price,which may present a significant resistance level, while the volume of PUT options is relatively very low.

Considering the 60 days following Apple's product announcements over the years,in 11 out of 15 instances, the stock rose. If investors are optimistic about the long-term outlook,in addition to buying the underlying stock or relevant ETFs (such as $Direxion Daily AAPL Bull 2X Shares (AAPU.US)$ 、 $GraniteShares 2x Long AAPL Daily ETF (AAPB.US)$ 、 $T-Rex 2X Long Apple Daily Target ETF (AAPX.US)$ ),they can also consider using call options; investors with larger capital may also consider selling put options;

if they expect the stock price might weaken during the announcement event,then besides buying inverse ETFs (such as $Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares (AAPD.US)$ ), they can also adoptthe strategy of buying put options.

Is it time to buy Apple? What do Wall Street analysts think?

Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the upcoming iPhone 17 series，Significant updates and a clever pricing strategy for the new models are expected to effectively stimulate user upgrades.Apple's iPhone business revenue is projected to grow by 5% year-over-year in the 2025 fiscal year, with further acceleration to 7% year-over-year growth in the 2026 fiscal year.

However,Goldman Sachs has a neutral view on the impact of the iPhone 17 Air model,While its slim form factor may attract some consumer interest, reports suggest compromises in battery capacity and rear camera (single lens), potentially reducing its appeal compared to base models.

Contrary to Goldman Sachs' view,JPMorgan's report suggests the biggest highlight of this year’s iPhone lineup will likely be the launch of the 'iPhone 17 Air'.This new model will replace the 'Plus' versions that have seen lukewarm market response in recent generations. JPMorgan reiterated its overweight rating on Apple and stated that Apple’s fall event could bring a slight uptick to the company’s stock price.

JPMorgan noted that Apple's initial production plan for this model is approximately 10 to 15 million units, reflecting a relatively cautious approach. However, analysts believe that if its slim design successfully attracts an unexpected consumer base,The iPhone 17 Air still has the potential to be the 'surprise' of this product cycle.

Price is always the topic consumers care most about.JPMorgan predicts that, except for the Pro models, prices for the iPhone 17 series will remain largely stable.Specifically:

The starting price of the iPhone 17 standard model is expected to be $799, the same as its predecessor.

The starting price of the iPhone 17 Pro Max is expected to remain unchanged at $1,199.

The pricing range for the iPhone 17 Air is expected to be between $899-$949, replacing the $899 iPhone 16 Plus.

The starting price of the iPhone 17 Pro is expected to increase from $999 to $1,099.

Source: JPMorgan

It's worth noting that the price hike for the Pro version is not a simple price increase. The report emphasizes that the base storage capacity is expected to double from 128GB to 256GB. This means Apple is achieving the price increase by eliminating the lower-end version, and for users purchasing the same capacity, the price remains unchanged.However, this move will break the eight-year streak of the Pro models maintaining a starting price of $999.

JPMorgan particularly emphasized in the report the decisive role of the Chinese market in iPhone sales.The report analysis states that the Chinese market is highly price-sensitive, and whether consumers can enjoy smartphone subsidies is a key factor influencing demand.

Currently, phones priced below RMB 6,000 (approximately USD 840) are eligible for discounts or subsidies from some platforms or carriers. However, the estimated starting price of USD 899 for the iPhone 17 Air is clearly above this threshold.

The report considers this a critical point of negotiation.If Apple can eventually lower the pricing of the Air model to around USD 800, enabling it to qualify for subsidies, it would significantly boost its sales volume in the Chinese market, injecting strong momentum into what might otherwise be a lackluster sales forecast.

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