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Up-and-coming space company Firefly is set to go public! In the Trump 2.0 era, which other space stocks are poised to take off?

As the global commercial space race heats up, U.S. space startup $Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US)$ announced it is rushing toward an IPO, with plans to list on the U.S. stock market on August 7th. The IPO price range is between $35 and $39 per share.

The market generally believes that Firefly's listing is one of the most anticipated Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group IPOs in the U.S. market in 2025.

Previously,《特朗普2.0時代即將來臨，或將「點燃」美股太空概念股？》、《太空AI數據中心要來了？特朗普2.0時代，哪些太空概念股有望受益？》Wait曾提示過，在特朗普2.0時代，太空領域有望迎來重大的機遇。

因為特朗普從第一次任至今，一直想要打造太空軍隊。此前特朗在白宮宣佈，他已經爲價值1750億美元的「金穹」導彈防禦系統選定了一個設計方案，並任命美太空軍太空作戰部副部長邁克爾·蓋特萊恩負責監督這項計劃。

This year, U.S. space Concept stocks have collectively surged, with satellite communication company AST SpaceMobile rising nearly 150% year-to-date. Aerospace and defense companies Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, aerospace and defense products supplier Astronics, and satellite communication provider Viasat have all gained over 94%. Small rocket company Rocket Lab and satellite imagery firm BlackSky have each risen by 70%.

What is the outlook for the space Industry?

According to McKinsey, due to the development of space technologies such as communication, positioning, navigation, and timing, and Earth observation services, the space economy is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035.Moreover, with increased data acquisition opportunities and reduced costs of accessing space, the space economy could potentially reach up to $2.3 trillion.

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根據BryceTech 2025年的報告，2024年有近2,800顆衛星發射入軌，與僅僅五年前相比，發射服務需求增長了500%以上。

此外，6月8日，美國初創公司Starcloud宣佈計劃於今年8月將一顆冰箱大小的衛星送入太空。這顆衛星將搭載英偉達H100芯片，成爲全球首顆具備該技術的衛星，其計算能力有望達到現有國際空間站和其他衛星的100倍，標誌着太空計算能力的重大飛躍。

華鑫證券認爲，隨着AI的廣泛應用，作爲其底座的算力基礎設施在全球都已經佔有了舉足輕重的地位，其加速擴張也是必然趨勢。無論是國內還是國外，太空或將成爲未來算力部署的一個新選擇。

FireFly is about to go public! A comprehensive look at space Concept stocks

With Firefly Aerospace's imminent listing, the market expects a new round of speculative interest in space Concept stocks. Futubull has compiled a list of space Concept stocks in the U.S. market for investors' reference:

As many investors compare $Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US)$、 $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$and SpaceX, this article will focus on these three companies.

Firefly Aerospace

Firefly Aerospace is the first private U.S. company to successfully land a spacecraft on the moon. On March 2, 2025, Firefly's self-developed Blue Ghost spacecraft successfully landed on the moon.This is the first time a commercial company has successfully landed on the moon.

According to Firefly's prospectus,Firefly is committed to building a full-stack ecosystem of "small-to-medium rockets + lunar cargo delivery + in-orbit tugs,"which forms a differentiated competitive strategy against SpaceX's large-thrust rockets and Starlink advantages.

Firefly's core competitiveness stems from its unique technology integration capabilities and rapid response design philosophy. The company positions itself as the "preferred partner for responsive space missions" and claims to bethe "only commercial company capable of launching satellites into orbit with about 24 hours' notice."

From a business perspective, the company covers rocket launches and spacecraft solutions.

1. Rocket Launches

The company currently has two main products: Alpha and Eclipse.

Alpha is the company's current Block Orders rocket model, a single-use rocket. It is the first and only American 1,000 kg-class orbital rocket to successfully reach orbit, having completed four successful launches. This type of rocket is designed to fill the market gap for delivering payloads of 500 kg to 2,000 kg into low Earth orbit (LEO).

These successful launches include rapid response space missions, which is a significant differentiating advantage for Firefly and a critical defense solution.

Eclipse, on the other hand, is a reusable and scaled-up version of Alpha. Currently, it is in the final stages of development in collaboration with Northrop Grumman, and it is expected to deliver up to 16,000 kg of payload into low Earth orbit, as well as into medium Earth orbit, geostationary orbit, high elliptical orbit, and lunar transfer orbit.This type of rocket is aimed at securing L contracts at the National Security level.

2. Spacecraft Solutions

Firefly has two core products—Blue Ghost and Elytra.

Blue Ghost Lunar Lander: Blue Ghost is the only fully successful commercial lunar lander, and it is the first U.S. lander to complete a mission on the lunar surface since NASA's Apollo 17 in 1972.This platform is not just about 'sending something to the Moon once,' but rather provides 'standardized lunar landing services' for organizations such as NASA and the military, which is at the forefront of the entire U.S. commercial space industry.

Elytra Spacecraft: Elytra is a highly maneuverable orbital service vehicle equipped with high-performance rocket engine technology, capable of in-orbit servicing, satellite maintenance, and orbital transfer.

The Elytra program is divided into three versions, including Elytra Dawn (the smallest model, primarily for low Earth orbit operations), Elytra Dusk (for transferring from low Earth orbit to geostationary orbit), and Elytra Dark (the most powerful, suitable for long-term missions to cislunar space and beyond).This platform opens up the emerging market of space logistics and orbital services for Firefly.

來源：Firefly Aerospace招股書

For NASA and the Pentagon, Firefly's core strength does not lie in 'advanced technology' but in its ability to control the entire process: developing its own rockets, autonomous spacecraft, dedicated test sites, and assembly lines. This highly vertically integrated system significantly shortens delivery cycles and reduces project risks. Compared to suppliers that rely on outsourcing and assembly, this approach is more reliable.The trust barrier constructed by Firefly has a dimensional difference.

來源：Firefly Aerospace招股書

However, in terms of performance, Firefly is a commercial aerospace company that has not yet turned a profit and has negative cash flow.

For the full year of 2024, the company's total revenue increased from $55.2 million in 2023 to $60.8 million in 2024, an increase of 10%; for the three months ending March 31, 2025, total revenue increased from $8.3 million in the same period last year to $55.9 million, an increase of 572%.In 2024, the company's overall loss was approximately $230 million. As of June 30, 2025, the company's free cash flow remained negative at $96.5 million, with only $205 million in available cash on hand.

來源：Firefly Aerospace招股書

As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, Firefly's backlog of orders has accumulated to over $1.1 billion, with the majority coming from NASA and the U.S. military.

Rocket Lab

The recent rapid rise in the stock price of Rocket Lab, a small rocket company, has attracted significant investor attention, following a more than 360% increase last year and an additional 75% increase this year.

Rocket Lab can be considered a mini version of SpaceX, initially focusing on small rocket launches and holding a leading position in the small satellite launch market.By achieving a differentiated competitive strategy, Rocket Lab currently ranks second among commercial space companies.

Rocket Lab is a comprehensive space technology company providing end-to-end solutions. Some have referred to it as the excavator of the space economy.The company holds the 'keys' to unlocking space (launch and orbital deployment capabilities) and the satellite platform manufacturing technology for building 'space infrastructure.' In the future, its strategic focus will extend to 'space operation,' offering high-value satellite data services.

Rocket Lab's main business areas include: rocket launch services, satellite platform development, and satellite constellation operations.

1. Rocket Launch Business

The rocket launch business is a stable source of revenue for the company and a cornerstone of its reputation.Its main products include the Electron (Electron rocket), Haste (suborbital launch rocket), and the Neutron (Neutron rocket) currently under development.

The Electron rocket is a small orbital launch vehicle.，This was the first major product that Rocket Lab brought to market. Since its first launch in 2018, the Electron rocket has become the second most frequently launched rocket in the United States.More importantly, it has an exceptionally high historical success rate of over 92%. All 10 launches conducted in 2025 were successful.

Notably, Rocket Lab is approaching another significant milestone—the first launch of its medium-lift launch vehicle, the Neutron.If successful, the company will be cost-competitive with SpaceX's Falcon 9, becoming a truly formidable market competitor.The first flight is scheduled for the end of 2025 at Wallops Island, Virginia. This is also the key focus for investors this year, and if Neutron's launch is successful, it will be the most important factor for RKLB's stock price to break through upwards.This will be the most important factor for RKLB's stock price to break through upwards this year.

2. Satellite Platform Business

Rocket Lab's satellite platform business accounts for approximately 70% of total revenue.In the first quarter of 2025, the satellite platform business generated $87 million in revenue, representing a 45% year-over-year increase. It now makes up 60% of the $1.07 billion backlog, surpassing the 'launch division' and becoming the primary source of future revenue.It has become the main source of future revenue.

Rocket Lab has an internal supply chain that allows it to produce satellite components, thereby reducing its dependence on third-party suppliers (a capability that many aerospace companies can only achieve on a small scale), thus enhancing its autonomy.

The company's Photon satellite platform has been selected by NASA for lunar and Mars missions (such as CAPSTONE) and for developing customized constellation services.

3. Satellite Constellation Business

Rocket Lab plans to acquire Mynaric AG, a company specializing in 'laser communication terminals for aerial, space, and mobile applications.'

According to BASM’s Substack data, laser communication has become a pain point for constellation operators, with communication equipment typically 'scarce and having long lead times.' Rocket Lab intends to leverage its mass production capabilities through this acquisition to address this pain point.

Market analysis suggests that Mynaric AG's business is in the same category as SpaceX's Starlink, which provides internet services from low Earth orbit and serves customers, generating significant data, which is a core source of SpaceX's free cash flow.

The market believes that if this acquisition is successful, it is expected to further strengthen Rocket Lab's mature capabilities as a leading launch provider, spacecraft manufacturer, and large-scale supplier of satellite components.However, Rocket Lab may use the proceeds from an equity issuance to support this and other future acquisition opportunities.

SpaceX

SpaceX, a commercial aerospace company, was founded in June 2002 by Elon Musk. The main business of SpaceX includesrocket launch services and Starlink services.Currently, the U.S. stock market can only invest in the company through $Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ.US)$ private markets, and the company's valuation is reportedly around $400 billion.

The revenue growth of SpaceX primarily relies on two business sectors:Falcon 9 rocket launch services and Starlink satellite internet services.The former has dominated the global launch market due to its reusable technology and the technical issues faced by competitors; the latter has become the biggest driver of revenue growth.

1. Launch Services

In 2024, SpaceX completed a record 134 Falcon rocket launches, becoming the world's most active launch operator. This year, the company plans to complete up to 170 launch missions, with 62 launches already completed.

The reusability of the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets has significantly reduced launch costs, allowing SpaceX to capture a substantial share of the global launch market.

2. Starlink Satellite Internet Services

Consulting firm Quilty Space estimates thatStarlink's revenue will grow from $7.8 billion in 2024 to $12.3 billion this year.This means that Starlink's business will account for nearly 80% of SpaceX's total revenue.

Starlink not only took customers from competitors but also established a growing government business and attracted corporate clients such as United Airlines and Deere. As of February this year, Starlink has over 5 million customers globally, with its user base doubling from 2023 to 2024. Musk previously stated that Starlink would go public after its cash flow becomes more predictable, but no specific timeline has been announced yet.

Notably, Musk previously disclosed that SpaceX's revenue for the 2025 fiscal year is expected to be $15.5 billion. Additionally, he anticipates that SpaceX's revenue will surpass NASA's budget, which is projected to be $18.8 billion next year.

Overall, the commercial paths of SpaceX, Firefly, and Rocket Lab are not entirely the same:

SpaceX is a vertically integrated, full-industry-chain ecosystem giant,no longer relying solely on rocket launches for profit, but rather building a moat through a vertically integrated system of 'launches + Starlink + services.'

Firefly, on the other hand, operates more like a prime contractor,providing end-to-end responsive space services, enabling the world to launch, land, and operate in space at any time. Firefly's primary orders come mainly from the U.S. government, particularly NASA and the Pentagon.

Rocket Lab's model is more akin to a 'Didi Chuxing' for space,with the company using smallThe Electron rocket, which handles microsatellite launch orders for commercial clients, relies on high-frequency, short-cycle launches to generate free cash flow.

In addition to the three companies mentioned above, the space sector also includes the following companies:

Launch service providers:

The 'First Space Tourism Stock', $Virgin Galactic (SPCE.US)$ is the world's first publicly listed human spaceflight company, offering suborbital flights. The company has completed two test flights to the edge of space and has received nearly $80 million in deposits from 603 people across 60 countries and regions.

Space infrastructure and services:

The 'First Lunar Infrastructure Stock', U.S. space exploration company $Intuitive Machines (LUNR.US)$ As an emerging player in lunar exploration, the company plans to launch its IM-2 mission to the Moon by the end of 2024 or early 2025. The company recently announced that it has signed additional contracts with NASA's Near Space Network (NSN) program, which will enable it to fully leverage the potential value of the $4.82 billion NSN program.。

The Pillar of Space Infrastructure $Redwire (RDW.US)$ : Unlike the glamorous packaging of other space companies, Redwire positions itself as 'practical', acting as the 'nuts and bolts' of the space foundational layer. As a leading company in space infrastructure, Redwire's Business spans several key areas, including space manufacturing and advanced space exploration robotics. Its core technologies are crucial for future space missions and commercialization beyond Earth.

In addition, it includes commercial space companies $Momentus (MNTS.US)$ and space infrastructure pioneers $Sidus Space (SIDU.US)$ 、space and defense technology companies $Voyager Technologies (VOYG.US)$ 。

Satellite Communication

The First U.S. Low-Earth-Orbit Satellite Stock $AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$ Aiming to build a global low-Earth-orbit satellite internet, utilizing existing 4G/5G communication frequency bands and standards, to enable direct connection of mobile phones and other terminals to satellites without modifications.

In addition, high-orbit (GEO) broadband services in North America have two major operators— $EchoStar (SATS.US)$ and $Viasat (VSAT.US)$ 。

Satellite Communication Service Provider $Iridium Communications (IRDM.US)$ The company provides global voice and data services through 66 satellites and is expected to achieve stable growth by expanding its user base and securing government contracts.

The U.S. low Earth orbit satellite communication company $Globalstar (GSAT.US)$ is one of the earliest companies to enter the low Earth orbit satellite communication field and achieve commercial success, having operated for over two decades. It remains a significant player in the industry but has limited user growth, insufficient profitability, and faces significant operational pressures.

Earth Observation and Imaging

$Planet Labs PBC (PL.US)$ is an Earth imaging company with over 13 years of history. The company has an important and interesting mission: to capture images of the Earth every day. It operates the world's largest remote sensing Satellite constellation, collecting high-frequency imagery data of the Earth's surface and using advanced AI analysis to provide change monitoring and geographic information insights to global government and commercial clients.

$BlackSky Technology (BKSY.US)$ is a leading provider of real-time geospatial intelligence services. The company operates a small, high-resolution remote sensing Satellite constellation, providing high-frequency imagery, analysis, and monitoring services for key targets or regions. Notably, this company has also signed a strategic partnership with $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ Palantir, integrating its imagery and data into Palantir's platform.

$Spire Global (SPIR.US)$ is a provider of space data, analytics, and space services. This year, the company announced it will collaborate with NVIDIA to develop AI-driven weather forecasting.itsIt is indicated that it will be able to provide rapidly updated global forecasts and other features, which are not achievable with traditional numerical weather prediction models.

Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group

$Teledyne Technologies (TDY.US)$ focuses on advanced aerospace systems and solutions, such as aircraft electric appliances, defense systems, and satellite technology, while also serving markets in factory automation, environmental tracking, and pharmaceutical research.

Space Battery

$KULR Technology (KULR.US)$ is a battery technology company that primarily provides cutting-edge energy storage solutions for space, aerospace, and defense. NASA is also one of its clients.

Aerospace and defense companies include $RTX Corp (RTX.US)$ 、 $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$ 、 $L3Harris Technologies (LHX.US)$ 、 $Northrop Grumman (NOC.US)$ 、 $Boeing (BA.US)$ 、 $AAR Corp (AIR.US)$ 、 $Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS.US)$ 、 $Howmet Aerospace (HWM.US)$ 。

Space parts manufacturers include $Heico (HEI.US)$ 、 $Astronics (ATRO.US)$ 。

However, investors need to be aware that despite the rising valuations, the space business remains a cash-burning machine.

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