The Mixue Group and Laopuk Gold are leading the rise, the Hong Kong stock market's Consumer trend has begun, will it become the new main line in the next phase?

After the beginning of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market was bustling, with the technology index leading the global capital markets, and Internet technology giants raising the flag for a counterattack, while the valuation of the technology sector gradually repaired. Driven by both policy stimulus and a recovery in demand, more cost-effective Hong Kong consumer stocks may become the main line in the next stage.

Hong Kong consumer stocks had been sluggish for many years, but recently led by the "new consumption" giant, $MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK)$ and. $LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ and others have broken through, pushing the valuation repair in the consumer industry.

Institutions point out that this may reflect the annual rotation characteristics of the Industry, as previously, funds in the Hong Kong stock market were more focused on the AI sector, while this year they are inclined to target more attractive Consumer Stocks that have long been abandoned by the market.

It is worth noting that the list of Hong Kong Stock Connect symbols has undergone a new round of adjustments, with 27 newly added stocks officially taking effect. $MAO GEPING (01318.HK)$ 、 $CR BEVERAGE (02460.HK)$ 、 $WL DELICIOUS (09985.HK)$ 、$XIAOCAIYUAN (00999.HK)$This includes several Consumer companies.

In addition, since the beginning of this year, many local governments have introduced beneficial 'policy packages' for the public and enterprises, distributing various consumer vouchers. Industry insiders believe that,Industry insiders believe that relevant measures are expected to stimulate a new wave of consumption enthusiasm, and consumer-related listed companies may directly benefit.

Miexue Group and Laopu Gold are leading the rise, is the consumer sector in Hong Kong gaining momentum?

Futu News selected companies in Hong Kong's consumer segments that have performed well this year, with a market cap >10 billion Hong Kong dollars and ranked high in terms of increase year-to-date (As of March 11, 2025, market close), for mooers' reference:

In specific terms:

– Food & Beverage

The stock price of Mixue Group doubled within 7 days of its listing, with an accumulated increase of nearly 108%, and the latest total Market Cap is about 150 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Soochow Securities believes that the core value of Mixue Group lies not in the "beverage sector," but in "Mixue's dominance within the sector." Mixue has over 40,000 stores domestically, while other beverage brands typically have between 3,000 to 9,000 stores, showing a significant gap compared to Mixue. The ability to open stores means that franchisees can make money from this brand. Based on this foundation, Mixue has opened an average of 7,000 stores per year over the past two years, which also reflects the brand's dominance. Without strong brand power, it would not be possible to continuously open stores and reach this level of store count. Strongly dominant brands are expected to enjoy higher valuations.

In addition,$WL DELICIOUS (09985.HK)$ 、$GUMING (01364.HK)$ Year-to-date, it has increased by over 50%, $DPC DASH (01405.HK)$ Increased nearly 35%, $CR BEVERAGE (02460.HK)$ Increased over 29%.

Dongxing Securities stated that dining consumption is expected to boost growth. Bullish on future policy reforms promoting the consumer, trade, and policy environments, optimistic about the overall performance improvement in the food and beverage industry. In particular, dining consumption is expected to significantly stimulate with the implementation of plans such as tourism, shopping in commercial areas, and offline experiences. At the same time, it is anticipated that local consumption subsidies will also increase support for the dining sector, which will help positively benefit the industry.

– DeepSeek significantly reduces the training and inference costs of AI large models through open-source models and low-cost strategies, which is interpreted by the market as an important node for China's AI industry to achieve "curve overtaking." This anticipated reconstruction has triggered a strong reaction in the Capital Markets, with related concept stocks rising more than 30% in a week, and some stocks even doubling in value. The new products of the DeepSeek large model have gained widespread attention in both domestic and international markets, and there has been a surge in DeepSeek concept stocks. Multiple automotive companies have announced their integration with the DeepSeek large model, accelerating the application of AI in the Autos field.

Continuing explosive sales, this year welcomes the "big year of products"!$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$Since the beginning of the year, it has increased nearly 109%.。

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$Previously released February 2025 sales, Xiaopeng Motors delivered 30,453 vehicles in February, a significant year-on-year increase of 570%, winning the new forces in delivery volume for two consecutive months. 2025 is a big year of products for Xiaopeng Motors, and the company plans to launch new or updated models every quarter. In addition, Xiaopeng Motors announced that the 2025 Xiaopeng Motors Spring Press Conference will be held on March 13 at 19:00, during which the 2025 Xiaopeng G6 and Xiaopeng G9 will be officially released.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Cumulative increase of over 56%, with share prices setting new highs repeatedly.

Goldman Sachs believes that Xiaomi, through its continued investment in AI technology and the advancement of the "human × vehicle × home" ecosystem strategy, by building an operating system-level AI assistant - Xiao Ai and the world's largest AIoT ecosystem, is expected to stand out in the AI era. Goldman Sachs has significantly raised Xiaomi's 12-month target price from 38 HKD to 58 HKD.

Achieved quarterly profitability for the first time!$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$ Cumulatively increased by nearly 50%.

In terms of news, Leapmotor recently released its performance for 2024, with revenue of 32.164 billion yuan (same unit), an increase of 92.06% year-on-year; the loss attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.1% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company achieved positive net income of 0.08 billion yuan, reaching the goal of turning net income positive in a single quarter a year ahead of schedule, becoming the second enterprise among new car manufacturers to achieve profitability.

In addition, $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ Cumulatively increased by over 31%, $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ Cumulatively increased by over 20%.

– Gold and Jewelry.

In the Hong Kong stock market, the 'stock price king'.$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ Since the beginning of the year, it has skyrocketed over 187%.

The price of the old jewelry gold stocks has surpassed the previously held 'stock king'.$TENCENT (00700.HK)$And Ctrip Group, currently firmly occupies the throne of 'stock price king' in the Hong Kong stock market.

SWHY stated that Laopu Gold focuses on the ancient gold track, aiming to create a Chinese high-end gold brand with high cultural value and strong international competitiveness. In the current gold and jewelry market, positioning in high-end channels, products, and brand recognition is scarce, and it is expected to fully benefit from the rise of high-end gold consumption under the resurgence of the national trend, as well as the growth opportunities for Chinese high-end consumer brands going overseas in the future.

The old gold giant.$CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK)$ Has risen over 35%.

Regarding the Gold & Jewelry Industry, Morgan Stanley released a Research Report stating that since mid-2023, it has taken a cautious attitude toward the mainland jewelry market, but its recent consumer survey found that the rapid growth of Gold Trinkets is due to product upgrades, improved demand for gemstones, and trends toward premiumization, which benefits high-end local brands and foreign Luxury Goods brands in capturing market share from mass-market and non-branded jewelry.

– Toys

Currently has 2 proprietary IPs and over 50 contracted IPs.$BLOKS (00325.HK)$ Cumulative increase of over 94% since the beginning of the year.

In the news, after debuting at one of the world's top three toy fairs, the Nuremberg Toy Fair in Germany in January 2025, Briko will showcase again at the New York Toy Fair in March.

Tianfeng released a Research Report stating that the New York Toy Fair, organized by the Toy Association of America, is the largest in the Americas and one of the top three toy fairs in the world. Briko's participation is a strong testament to its global innovation and influence. With strong R&D capabilities and an innovative product system, Briko follows the Global Strategy of 'All demographics, all price ranges, globalization', steadily advancing its globalization pace from the Singapore Animation Expo, to the Nuremberg Toy Fair and then to the New York International Toy Fair.

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Cumulative increase of over 33%, total Market Cap surpassing 150 billion HKD.

Morgan Stanley's latest Research Report states that the plush bag pendant launched by POP MART is leading a new trend and could open up a market larger than 'collectibles'.

In addition, Citi released a research report stating that China's IP commodity market has enormous growth potential, as its per capita consumer spending is still relatively low compared to Developed Markets. The licensing business is deeply connected to all areas of consumption, providing extensive opportunities for realizing the commercial value of IP, with IP commodities being the primary avenue. The firm sees that high-quality IP supply, product innovation, and supply chain capabilities will drive the upward potential of IP consumption. The firm reaffirmed the 'Buy' rating for POP MART with a target price of HKD 120, due to its ability to successfully nurture proprietary/exclusive IP.

– Cosmetic

The Hong Kong stock "the first domestic color cosmetics stock".$MAO GEPING (01318.HK)$ Has accumulated over 79% increase year-to-date.

In terms of news, according to announcements from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Mao Ge Ping has officially been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from March 10. CITIC SEC pointed out that as a scarce local brand with high brand strength in consumer discretionary, as well as outstanding profitability and symbol scarcity, this inclusion is expected to further open up capital channels. Institutions noted that Mao Ge Ping is in a rapid growth phase of brand momentum, optimistic about the company’s scarce brand value, category structure, channel endowment, and subsequent growth potential. In the short term, the company’s high-frequency data is impressive, laying a strong fundamental support; in the medium to long term, extending categories such as perfumes or creating a multi-brand matrix is also expected to bring new growth curves.

Medical beauty and skincare giants. $GIANT BIOGENE (02367.HK)$ Increased nearly 46%, domestic beauty giant. $CHICMAX (02145.HK)$ Increased by over 33%.

From the perspective of catalytic factors, the rise of the Consumer Sector may be the result of policy support and the resonance of market sentiment.

This year, the consumption topic became a focus again at the national two sessions. In this year's "Government Work Report," the term "consumption" appeared 32 times, and among the ten major tasks to be completed this year, "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and comprehensively expanding domestic demand" is placed first. 32 times, the first item, highlighting the importance of consumption for the current economic development.

Research reports from China Merchants indicate that Recently, the statements regarding Consumption from the Two Sessions have been relatively positive, with the growth rate of fiscal expenditure in 2025 reaching a five-year high, and subsequent special plans to boost Consumption are expected to be introduced to further stimulate demand. Consumption may take turns to outperform Technology phase-wise.

What do the Institutions think?

Many Institutions pointed out that the strong rebound of consumer stocks is closely related to the domestic policies promoting consumption and the recovery of residents' purchasing power, believing that the Consumer Sector still has room for upward movement.

Guoyuan believes that the sub-sectors such as Smart Home and New Retail may create new growth points under the support of AI technology and policies. For example, the integration of generative AI and consumption scenarios can enhance user experience, while policies like "trade-in for new" directly stimulate demand for large consumer goods like home appliances and Autos.

Galaxy Securities points out that after Trump's election, the importance of the logic of China's domestic self-controllable technology has increased.Under the stimulation of domestic policies to expand domestic demand and stabilize consumption, Hong Kong stocks in the Consumer sector, which currently have relatively low valuation levels, are expected to rise.

CITIC Securities' research report states that from 2019 to 2022, the PE levels of consumption and Technology sectors in Hong Kong and US stocks were relatively close, but thereafter the valuation premium of the US stock market compared to Hong Kong stocks in corresponding industries continued to widen.Currently, the dynamic PE ratio of the Hong Kong Consumer sector is only half that of the US stock market, making the comparative value significantly prominent.

Some industry insiders believe that the cases of MIXUE BINGCHENG and Laopu Gold indicate that consumer investment has shifted from a single track to a diversified layout. The deep cultivation of channels in lower-tier markets, cultural premium, and innovative paths integrating Technology are becoming key for companies to break through. With the restructuring of global supply chains and fragmentation of the consumer market, Chinese consumer brands that have local advantages and global competitiveness are likely to become a significant main line in the Capital Markets.

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