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After two major conferences in China have concluded, what are the next investment steps?

This week, two major conferences were held, with reactions seen in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US-listed Chinese stocks.

How should investors understand and respond? Mr. Mooer will talk about this specifically today.From the following points：

First, explain the positioning of these meetings and the relationship between the meetings and market reactions.

Explain the focus of the Political Bureau meetings and the Economic Work Conference respectively, and their impact on the market.

From the perspective of investors, explain the relevant investment strategies under the current background.

First of all, what are these meetings? What are they for?

First, let's talk about it.The deployment logic of China's economic policies: the Central Political Bureau meeting sets the tone for the next year's policies, the Central Economic Work Conference makes overall economic arrangements, and the 'Two Sessions' (National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) government report implements specific details.。

The Central Political Bureau meeting held on Monday, once a month, 12 times a year. The meetings in April, July, and December focus on discussing economic matters, can be said to be the 'barometer' for economic work, setting the tone for the next stage of economic operations.

This December's meeting has more highlights, because firstly, it immediately follows the Central Economic Work Conference, and secondly, the September Political Bureau meeting has just undergone a shift, so everyone wants to see if the warm breeze can continue to blow.Whether the warm breeze can continue to blow is what everyone wants to see after the shift in the September Political Bureau meeting.。

The Central Economic Work Conference held on Wednesday and Thursday is the highest-level economic policy conference in the country. It is held once a year in December to summarize the economic work of the past year, analyze the current economic situation, and deploy economic policies for the coming year.

Usually, this conference will have an impact on the market. The key deployment directions mentioned in the conference may also become hot topics for market transactions in the following year. In addition, because 2025 is an important year for the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," the importance of this conference is increasing.The importance of it is increasing. will be released, showing a reduction in inventory. This forecast will be provided by Wednesday noon, before the specific data comes out on Thursday.

How does the capital market react to this? In fact, the logic is quite simple.Before and after these two conferences, it all depends on the expectation difference. Looking ahead, it will depend on the comparison between policy expectations and policy realities.If the performance is good in the future, it is naturally bullish; if the performance is worse than expected, then it is bearish.

What signals did the Political Bureau meeting release?

PS. In order for mooers to have a clearer understanding, let me explain a few terms first.

Overall, this meeting conveyed very strong and positive signals, exceeding market expectations. Futusir summarized a few key points.

1. The general tone is set as "implementing more proactive macro policies," which is rarely seen and set at a high pitch.

2. Specifically, there are several key phrases: "strengthen countercyclical regulation beyond the usual norms," "more proactive fiscal policy," and "moderately loose monetary policy."

"Strengthen countercyclical regulation beyond the usual norms."This statement isFirst appearancePreviously, it was generally referred to as "increasing countercyclical adjustments", and now this strengthened and unconventional double superposition is evidently unprecedented in intensity.

The expression of the past few years of "prudent monetary policy + proactive fiscal policy" has turned into"Moderately loose monetary policy + more proactive fiscal policy"。

The last time the emphasis was on "more" in fiscal policy was in July 2020 under the impact of the epidemic. The last time the monetary policy called for being moderately loose was during the 2008 global financial crisis, when China introduced a massive fiscal stimulus of "four trillion", and the money supply surged by 30 trillion.

In other words, the upcoming monetary and fiscal policies need to Step on the accelerator with both feetIt is possible that a large-scale economic stimulus policy is about to be introduced. Of course, unlike in 2008, this time it will definitely focus more on balancing economic stimulus and risk prevention.

3. It directly addresses the most concerning issues and proposes to "stabilize the real estate and stock markets", "vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and comprehensively expand domestic demand".

"Stabilize the real estate and stock markets"Very easy to understand, the real estate and stock markets are considered stocks of existing wealth and fluctuating wealth respectively.Both need to be stabilized in order to stabilize everyone's wealth expectations.Stabilizing the real estate market may involve both increasing special bonds to protect the supply side and relaxing home purchase restrictions, guiding LPR down to boost demand. Stabilizing the stock market may involve more long-term funds entering, including social security funds, aiming to actually improve the long-term return on the stock market, so that when residents have money, they can consume more.

However, it is worth noting that the language regarding the stock market, from September's "efforts to boost the capital market" to the current "stabilization", has become more neutral. This may mean that the speculation during the National Day was too intense, and a stable and positive trend is more healthy.The phrase regarding the stock market has shifted from September's "efforts to boost the capital market" to the current "stabilization", becoming more neutral. This change may indicate that the speculation around the National Day was too intense, and a stable and positive trend is healthier.。

What signals are there for "boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand in all aspects"?Consumption and domestic demandhave already been placed in a more prominent position in the economy than technology, thismay be the top priority of next year's policiesAfter all, with Trump taking office, we may face the impact of insufficient external demand, and it is no longer a delay to drive the economy with consumption.

What else is mentioned? "To play the leading role of economic system reform, promote the effective implementation of landmark reform measures. To expand high-level opening up to the outside world, stabilize foreign trade and investment."

How to understand this? The key words of this passage are actually"Reform and opening up"This is always the hard truth of development. It may make several landmark events to enhance everyone's confidence and stabilize expectations.

After this meeting, the market also had a wave of reactions.

At 3:00 p.m. on December 9th, after the press release, Hong Kong stocks soared. The Hang Seng Index experienced a sprint-like surge in the last 40 minutes before the close, rising from a decline of 0.33% to a surge of 2.76%. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks and related indices also had abnormal performance, with A-shares opening significantly higher the next day. These.It is enough to show that this meeting has released strong positive signals.。

However, the market did not continue, and quickly fell back. On the one hand, this is because the surge and turnaround during the National Day quickly, and everyone is already relatively cautious. On the other hand, it is also because.Knowing whether to do it is one thing, how to do it and how well you do it is another thing.Not to mention that the economic work conference hasn't even started yet.

What signals did the Economic Work Conference convey?

It can be said that the Political Bureau meeting basically expressed the summit, and the interpretation of the Economic Work Conference needs to focus on the details.

In fact, looking at the entire draft of the conference,Basically following the logic of the Political Bureau meeting, it provided relevant detailed descriptions, which met expectations.de.

Niu sir mainly identified several points:

1. Firstly, it honestly faces the current internal and external issues.

The deepening adverse effects brought by the current changes in the external environment, the operation of our economy still faces many difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, some enterprises facing production and operation difficulties, the pressure on people's employment and income growth, and still many hidden risks.

It's a simple truth, only by identifying the problems can solutions be considered. Once the issues are pointed out, that's when one shouldstart actively seeking change and putting in efforts proactively. will be released, showing a reduction in inventory. This forecast will be provided by Wednesday noon, before the specific data comes out on Thursday.

Fiscal and monetary policies have both proposed specific measures, and have directly stated the rare intention to increase the deficit rate, lower the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates.

From being "positive" to "even more positive", there is now a clearer guideline, one beingto increase the fiscal deficit rate, it was stated clearly at the Central Economic Work Conference last time this way, back in 2015. The other is to increase the issuance scale of long-term special national bonds and special bonds, as well as to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures.

Raising the deficit rate and optimizing fiscal expenditure structure is aimed at channeling funds towards truly boosting domestic demand and securing the bottom line for grassroots 'three guarantees'. The issuance of ultra-long-term special national bonds mainly supports the 'two major' initiatives and the 'two new' policies. Increasing project debts mainly corresponds to 'promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, prudently resolving risks of local small and medium-sized financial institutions'.

* 'Three guarantees' refer to guaranteeing basic people's livelihood, ensuring wages, and ensuring smooth operation. 'Two major' refers to the implementation of major national strategic initiatives and the construction of key areas' security capability. 'Two new' refers to a new round of large-scale equipment upgrades to promote industrial upgrading and improve production efficiency, as well as the replacement of old consumer goods to stimulate consumption.

Some institutions predict that by 2025, the government debt scale is very likely to increase from nearly 12 trillion yuan to 15 trillion yuan.

Actually, all the points that should be mentioned have been mentioned. Specifically, for example, how much will the deficit rate increase? How much will the issuance of special national bonds increase? How much will the issuance and utilization of local government debts increase? How to evaluate the scope of use and profit potential? These are all aspects to be observed later on.

In terms of monetary policy, there are two key points. One directly mentioned point isreserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, so, the reduction magnitude next year may be higher than this year.This is actually also the focus of the following.Whether there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut within this month.。If it is cut, it would be more in line with expectations; if not, the market may raise doubts and question whether there is a gap between policy expectations and implementation.Another point is the mention of 'exploring and expanding the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank, innovating financial instruments, and maintaining financial market stability', followed by statements like '500 billion and another 500 billion', '300 billion and another 300 billion', indicating the possibility of more such new tools.

Then the macro-prudential policy aims to prevent systemic financial risks, specifically to stabilize the stock market, bond market, and exchange rate.In addition, the goal of macro-prudential policy is to prevent systemic financial risks specifically stabilizing the stock market, bond market, and exchange rate.In addition, the goal of macro-prudential policy is to prevent systemic financial risks specifically stabilizing the stock market, bond market, and exchange rate.

3、提振消費是重點工作，這和穩樓市穩股市、促進居民收入增長都有關。

相較於去年，擴大內需的表述從「著力擴大」變為「全方位擴大」，並且被放在了前面，驗證了前文說的這是明年經濟工作的重點。

如何擴內需呢？包括用前面提到的「兩新」和「兩重」去帶動消費，當然還有一些惠民生的措施了，比如給中低收入族群增收減負，提高養老金等。

而且如果要向內需大轉向，XINXINGCHANYE may usher in opportunities., The article also mentioned "actively developing the first release economy, ice and snow economy, and LBX Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock economy". At this point of expanding domestic demand, if consumers have money, then income must increase."Stabilizing the real estate market and the stock market"becomes very important, otherwise everyone can't let go.

The article also mentioned, "next year will maintain stable economic growth, maintain overall stability of employment and prices, maintain basic balance of international payments, promote growth of resident income and synchronized economic growth". The first four are traditional goals,"Promoting growth of resident income" is seen for the first time.This may be accomplished through the "Promotion of Private Economy Development Law", to support the foundation of the private economy, ensuring more security for people's employment and wages.

4. Technological innovation still needs to be vigorously pursued, and some details related to reform and opening up have also been provided.

In addition to 'Artificial Intelligence + Mobile' in technology, this time it also mentioned 'Rectification of 'inner-loop' competition' . Compared to the previous 'supply-side reform', rectifying the inner loop is more suitable for the current environment because it may directly address the current waste of resources and vicious competition in the technology industry.

In general, the outcome of this conference does not constitute a bullish or bearish factor.

But how did the market react? A-shares and H-shares responded directly with a significant drop, indicating that currently, for the market, perhaps exceeding expectations is stable expectations.。

The two major conferences have concluded, raising market expectations. The key now is whether the actual policy implementation can meet those expectations. From now until the next two sessions next year, there are still many variables.Everyone may expect various ministries to take action immediately after the policy is determined, preferably making some noise before March.

What can investors pay attention to? What should they do?

If you have to summarize it in one word, that would be cautious optimism. The current policy determination may bring opportunities, but one should also be cautious about market volatility risks.

In the long run,China's economic strength and prospects do not need to be worried about in the long term, and there is also sufficient room for policy adjustments. The current determination is very likely to inject liquidity into the market.The long-term investment opportunities and potential returns have increased.。

However,From a short-term perspective, possibly only when it exceeds expectations can stabilize market expectations, so when there is a gap between implementation and expectations, it may lead to an increase in short-term market volatility, this kindof rapid rise and fall in the market also requires everyone to adapt to。

In this context, Mr. Bullprovide some tips to everyone：

1. You can考慮長短線結合的策略，長線捕捉政策紅利，短線應對市場波動。這需要資金方面的配合，一部分資金用於長線，一部分資金留給短線。

2、中長線可以關注有可能從政策中受益的行業，包括消費、科技創新、基建、金融、房地產等，其中可以更多關注前面提到的新興產業。當然也要重視企業的基本面，選擇有核心競爭力和良好業績的公司。

長線投資中免不了波動，但就看你怎麼對待這個波動了。對有的人來說波動很影響投資信心，但如果你足夠堅定，Volatility can also be an opportunity for you to buy low and average down costs.。

3、In the short term, pay attention to the speed and intensity of policy implementation, and determine the short-term opportunities that may arise.For example, as mentioned earlier,See if there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut this month. If there is a cut, it will be more in line with expectations, and the subsequent expectations will gradually strengthen.。

Of course, in addition to domestic policies, it is also necessary to observe changes in Sino-US relations, global economic conditions, and geopolitical risks.

Short-term trading really tests the ability to time the market, andWhat is most feared is turning short-term into long-term.This is a big problem because their trading logics are fundamentally different. During the National Day market rally, some people may have simply been on the roller coaster ride, ending up with no returns and possibly losing money instead.

So in short-term trading,It is especially important to pay attention to setting stop-loss and take-profit levels.I recommend a useful tool - stop-loss and take-profit orders.

Simply put, after buying stocks, if worried about a significant price drop to minimize losses, consider setting a sell stop-loss order; if concerned about a price reversal from rising to falling, to secure gains, consider setting a sell take-profit order (also known as a stop order). For more information, you can learn《3 Types of Orders: Help You Earn More, Lose Less!》。

4. It is recommended to flexibly use tools other than stocks to diversify risk or reduce costs.In the long run, ETFs can be considered more, while options can be utilized more in the short term.。

Alright, the above is what Sir Niu wants to talk about today. How can we apply the signals from two meetings to our investments?click hereGrab exclusive limited-time benefits, as well as more investment tips, seize the opportunity first!

Focus on @Futubull education , orclick hereJoin the class to get more investment dry goods, greatly improve investment skills! If you want to exchange more, you can also join the mooer.Official Investment Exchange GroupLearning, Chief Analyst real-time online guidance!

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