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【Investment Hot Topic】In-depth article: The complete guide to 'Trump 2.0' for investors.

Recently, there has been a plethora of information about the 'Donald Trump 2.0'. For investors, this is undoubtedly a significant and long-lasting event. However, it seems that the market also has a consensus, feeling that the Trump administration may bring a high level of uncertainty, which is causing some headaches for investors.

So how should we understand this major event, as well as the logic and opportunities behind it? Today, Mr. mooer tries to sort out and interpret it from the following aspects:

How to view the 2.0 cabinet team? What are the post-inauguration policies and economic expectations? What impact will these have on the US dollar, US stocks, gold, bitcoin, Chinese assets? How should investors proceed?

How do you view the 2.0 cabinet team?

Overall, Donald Trump's speed in forming the cabinet this time is faster than the previous term, it seems to have a clearer consideration than before taking office, and this term may also pay more attention to the effective operation of the government.

The nominees are mainly non-establishment figures (meaning they tend to challenge the existing political system).They may overturn the previous government system, bring about profound reforms, and establish a new national order. Many nominees also have strong loyalty to Donald Trump.and theyhave a generally tougher stance towards China.。

這些人選裡先出現的是偏國內事務的職位人選（比如白宮幕僚長、衛生及公共服務部長），後才是偏外交事務的職位人選（比如國務卿、國家情報總監、國防部長等）。This may indicate a strategy of "domestic affairs first, foreign affairs later," focusing on domestic affairs before addressing diplomatic issues.

Who among these people is worth paying attention to?

First is the Secretary of StateMike Rubio.HeHe has a very tough stance on China and Cuba, and he has been sanctioned by China for his bad behavior on the Hong Kong issue. If he is appointed, it may have a significant impact on US-China relations. He is also unpredictable, having betrayed his own supporters multiple times, which could bring some uncertainty to US diplomacy and international relations.He was also sanctioned by China for his poor performance on Hong Kong-related issues. If he is appointed, it may have a greater impact on Sino-US relations. He is also capricious, repeatedly betraying his own supporters, which will bring some uncertainty to US diplomacy and international relations.

Then the Treasury SecretaryScott BesentHe is an experienced hedge fund manager who has served as the chief investment officer of Soros Fund Management. He has a 3-3-3 policy concept, which aims to achieve a 3% annual GDP growth rate, maintain inflation and benchmark interest rates at around 3%, and try to find a balance among these three factors.It may indicate a more market-oriented economic policy, and economic reform may not be too radical.。

Worth mentioning, he alsomore supports Bitcoin,believes it can embody economic freedom and attract more young people into the market.

He previously supported direct intervention by the Federal Reserve (supporting the establishment of a shadow chairman of the Federal Reserve), which made the market more worried, but later he withdrew this proposition. He currentlymore distinct position is imposing broad tariffs on imported goods.。

Also potentially holding important positions in the Government Efficiency Department.Elon Musk，這位大家都很熟了。作為科技創新和企業家的代表，他可能會Bringing more innovative thinking to the government.，在拆解政府官僚機構、削減多餘的法規和開支方面有不少動作。

And nominated as the National Border Affairs Head (also known as the Border Czar).Tom HomanHe strongly opposes illegal immigration, believing that illegal immigration at the southern border is the biggest security loophole for the United States since the 9/11 attacks. If he takes office, he may be a staunch supporter of Trump's immigration policies, which also means The Trump administration may implement strict immigration policies.。

Two noteworthy individuals - nominated as the National Intelligence Director, Thulsi Gabbard and the Department of Health and Public Services Minister, Robert Francis Kennedy, both switched from the Democratic Party, sharing similar views with Trump on certain issues.Tulsi Gabbard, and Robert Francis Kennedy, the Minister of Health and Public Services, are both former Democrats who hold similar views to Trump on certain issues.Two noteworthy individuals - nominated as the National Intelligence Director, Tulsi Gabbard and the Department of Health and Public Services Minister, Robert Francis Kennedy, both switched from the Democratic Party, sharing similar views with Trump on certain issues.

Tulsi supports strengthening border security in immigration policy, opposes excessive political correctness, and may also promote policies to reduce US overseas military intervention.

Kennedy has expressed views on the 'deep state', believing in the existence of a covert power structure that may influence policies. He is also one of the representatives of anti-vaccine and conspiracy theories during the COVID-19 pandemic, and has long believed that US policies are controlled by food industry and pharmaceutical giants.

Both of them have unconventional tendencies, are controversial in media, lack sufficient correlation between professional background and the positions they may be appointed to, if appointed,it could significantly change the current intelligence and public health policies。

What policies might Donald Trump have after taking office?

First of all, it must be said that policies are diverse, changes can be rapid, and there may be contradictions between policies, so one cannot think in a linear manner. Sir Lu can only speculate based on existing information.

First, the policies of imposing tariffs and controlling immigration are the ones that have been mentioned more frequently in the market recently.

In terms of tariff policiesPreviously, Donald Trump stated that if elected, he would impose tariffs of 60%-100% on all goods imported from China, while imposing a 10% tariff on imports from other countries.

At the end of November, he announced a batch of tariff plans, intending to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Mexico and Canada (accusing these two countries of responsibility for drugs and illegal immigration issues in the USA as a form of pressure), as well as an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China (due to unsubstantiated issues relating to narcotics).

How should we understand this? The 10% tariff on China this time is considerably milder than originally claimed. However, based on Trump's experience in his previous term, tariffs gradually accumulate, which could likely become his bargaining chip.It is very likely to become a bargaining chip in his negotiations.。

However, from the current situation in our country,there will be some impact.(Because the current US trade surplus contributes about 30% to us)But not too exaggreated.Because we also have a re-export trade line. Since 2023, we have been exporting raw materials and semi-finished products to Southeast Asia, India, etc., for processing and then re-exporting to the United States. So despite China's exports to the US dropping by 13.1%, export trade still maintains positive growth.

In terms of immigration policy.If Donald Trump really enforces strict immigration policies,the US labor market and the US economy may be impacted, especially in industries such as agriculture, construction, and services that rely on immigrant labor. More information can be directly seen in the figure below:Fiscal policy is another major challenge that Trump may face. The US currently faces enormous

challenges due to fiscal policy. Fiscal deficit, which means the government's spending far exceeds tax and other revenues. This is generally something a country does not want to see, as it can affect the long-term growth and stability of its economy.

In order to reduce the fiscal deficit ratio (fiscal deficit ratio = fiscal deficit / total GDP), the Trump administration may focus on the denominator end,reduce domestic tax revenuesto boost the economy, while also focusing on the numerator end,cutting fiscal expenditures, he nominated Musk who may also have this consideration.

BecauseTrade deficitIn addition to increasing tariffs, there are some market speculations about possible policies, such as on industrial regulatory policies,investing in infrastructure and strengthening manufacturingis also a possible strategy. Because the trade war began in 2018, but by 2023, the U.S. trade deficit had increased by nearly $300 billion compared to 2017, so it seems that tariff policies may not solve the trade deficit issue.

there may tend to be more relaxed.possible policies, such as looser industrial regulatory policies.especially onfinance, energy, etc.In this area, to promote energy independence and financial industry development.

It is especially important to emphasize that,Trump's views on the US dollar and interest rates。

From the available information, Trump often criticizes high interest rates leading to an overly strong US dollar,His expectations are more likely a weak US dollar and low interest rates.。

A weak dollar benefits exports, stimulates the economy, reduces trade deficits, and may also lead to improvements in manufacturing and increased employment as side effects of a weak dollar. Generally, interest rates and exchange rates have a positive correlation; low interest rates often lead to currency depreciation (weakness). What other roles do low interest rates play? They can stimulate economic growth and reduce the fiscal deficit ratio on the denominator side.

* However, let me briefly explain,In the long run, Donald Trump may prefer a strong US dollar scenario.On the other hand, as Mooer mentioned earlier, there may be contradictions or debatable points between policies. For example, imposing tariffs can raise supply costs, while cutting taxes domestically can stimulate economic activities, which may lead to increased inflation. However, higher inflation requires higher interest rates to curb, which contradicts the policy of reducing interest rates. In other words, the combination of "low interest rates + low tax rates + high tariffs" is the "impossible triangle".

On the other hand, as Mooer mentioned earlier,There may be contradictions or debatable areas between policies.。

For example, imposing tariffs will increase supply costs, while reducing domestic taxes will stimulate economic activities. These may lead to rising inflation, but higher inflation requires higher interest rates to contain, which contradicts the policy of reducing rates. In other words,"Low interest rates + low tax rates + high tariffs" combination is the "impossible triangle".If Trump wants to push the Fed to continue lowering interest rates, he may need a small recession as a stepping stone.

The relationship between tariffs and the US dollarIt is also somewhat complex. For example, in the short term, tariff policies may increase global economic uncertainty, leading investors to seek safe havens. The U.S. dollar is a safe haven asset, so it may be favored and its value may rise, which is contradictory to the goal of a weaker dollar.It's contradictory again.。

It's hard to say whether the tariff policy can really reduce the trade deficit.Tariff policies may lead to a rise in the U.S. dollar, coupled with domestic tax cuts that could stimulate economic growth and attract capital inflows, thus increasing the demand for the U.S. dollar and possibly causing the dollar to appreciate. If tariff policies can reduce imports, a stronger dollar may offset this trend, leading to an increase in imports and a weakening of exports.

AndThere is another aspect to the issue of trade deficits.Trade deficits actually support capital inflow into the USA, to some extent boosting the financial and real estate industries in the USA. If the trade deficit really decreases, it may have an impact on this, thereby affecting investors.

There is another question.If the policy of imposing tariffs + reducing taxes is implemented, then is the domestic market in the USA big and good enough?If the answer is negative, then protectionism would be futile. For example, in primary processing products, the USA currently heavily relies on imports (especially from china).

If we follow the above logic to deduce, then the next possible step for Donald Trump 2.0 is- One is a relatively mild approach to tariffs and immigration policies, with a focus on actively reducing taxes, easing regulations, balancing the budget, which would be a positive situation internally and externally. The other is a significant increase in tariffs, a significant tightening of immigration policies, which would greatly increase global economic uncertainty, and the USA economy may also fall into a recession. There is also the worst-case scenario, with the USA economy not growing but experiencing inflation (stagflation), global geopolitical situation deteriorating significantly, which could lead to a serious flight to safety globally.

Although the current cabinet nominees have a tougher stance on tariffs and immigration policies, considering economic growth and stability, the first scenario is more likely to occur, while tariffs and immigration policies are more of a negotiating deterrent.

How will the US dollar, US bonds, gold, bitcoin, US stocks, and Chinese assets perform?

After saying so much earlier, let's keep it simple in this part, Sir.

Final advice for investors

1. It is obvious that the economy and market changes rapidly and are full of various possibilities, so it is important to stay sensitive to macro information and market dynamics.Sensitivityandflexibly adjustone's investment strategy, which has always been crucial in investing.

2、Short-termBefore Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025,The trends of US stocks and Bitcoin are worth paying attention to., the market's current response to this is more positive. As for the US stock market, here are a few data points for reference:

Since 1928, the median monthly returns of the S&P 500 Index in December and January have been around 3.83%. In years with US elections since 1928, the rebound of US stocks usually continues until early January of the following year, and fades before the presidential inauguration day.

After the volatility index VIX broke through 20 last month and dropped to below 14, analysts have calculated that in the past 26 instances where VIX rose above 20 and then dropped below 14, the S&P 500 Index only failed to rise once after a year, with a median increase of 14.2%.

The market response before the president took office, the year-end trading effects, combined with the changes in VIX signals, these messages may indicateThe US stock market window may be an opportunity for investors who prefer short to medium-term trading.。If you want to seize this window of opportunity, you can do so first.click hereClaim your rewards!

3、Long termHowever, it is recommended for mooers toYou need to have your own tendency towards the three policies mentioned above.This will make the layout clearer, and being able to determine and believe in your own judgment is also a key factor in investment success.

At the same time, from the interpretation above, everyone also sees the complexity of politics, economy, and the market, soAsset diversification is important, including maintaining a long-term focus on real estate and being adept at using ETFs and options.It is very important, including maintaining a long-term focus ongoldLong-term attention and adept use.ETFs and optionsThese financial instruments are used to implement a layout for opportunities.

4. MustPay special attention to the common characteristic of "pre-digestion" in the financial market.。對於一個利好的經濟事件或數據預期，市場通常會提前反應，而到了實際發生時，則往往可能是資金獲利出逃的時候了，所以要注重把握投資時機。

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Okay, Moo Sir will stop here today. Do you have anything to say about "Donald Trump 2.0"? Looking forward to exchanging ideas with you!

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