慢慢变富的牛牛

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【Mooer Story】From losing a fortune of 2 million to a comeback in Dongshan, the mooer's algorithmic leveling up journey.

Starting from this issue, we have launched a new section: exploring more trading stories of becoming wealthy slowly using fundamental analysis and tools like ETF with value investment concepts. In this issue, we have invited@守猪逮兔估值模型Share his ETF trading stories and techniques, welcome everyone to delve into learning and understanding.~

Friendly reminder: This article is relatively long, it is recommended to like, bookmark, and then read it carefully.There are surprises at the end of the article.

1. From losses to profits, what have I experienced after all?

Q: Hi Guardian, thank you very much for accepting our interview as a teacher and sharing your investment stories and insights with everyone. I have heard Guardian talk about overcoming emotional weaknesses from previous losses to now constantly reviewing and achieving profits. It must have been very difficult, I would like to hear your feelings and opinions?

Mooer, hello, I am the Valuation Model of Guard Pig Capturing Rabbit. I have published leveraged ETF Greed and Fear Index for over 100 periods in the Futubull circle, and I am very happy to share my investment stories with everyone. As for my profession, let's keep it a secret for now. As for investments, I started trading Hong Kong and US stocks in 2019, it has been 5 years now.

If you have never cried bitterly in the middle of the night, then it's not enough to talk about life.。Many people come to the stock market with the goal of making money and getting rich, but often easily overlook the risks behind it.。

"Losing half" is the longest confession, the tearful history of raising stocks while working.

Let me tell you a classic case of my personal stock market failure. This stock has been purchased by many mooers, who were all deeply regretful. I often quote it in my daily updates on the fear and greed index of US stocks at night, that is, $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$ . At that time, the bull market thinking trained during the Chinese concept stocks bull market in 2020 had not yet changed, and suddenly encountered a flash crash of Chinese concept stocks. What was desperate was that I kept trying to bottom fish in the following long bear market, buying all the way from prices of five to six hundred down to one to twenty. "Losing half" is the longest confession.

As you can imagine, the more I tried to pick the bottom, the lower it got, and my account funds were decreasing as I kept buying, ending up both bald and poorer.

Confidence, luck, doubt, regret, then anger, disillusionment, feeling life is hopeless—every pitfall that retail investors have stepped into, I have also completely experienced without missing a single one.。

After the blowout, using algo as armor for armed trading.

I studied liberal arts in high school, and I like both the bold and delicate styles in Song Ci poetry, which I try to express.Sometimes confident, optimistic, brave and all-in, sometimes melancholic, sensitive, panic and cut losses.。

I majored in psychology in college, and have been working at a psychology company since graduation. Over the past 12 years, my perception and decision-making have always been more intuitive than rational.

Realizing my own personality issues, coupled with the painful experience of YINN, I decided to leverage my psychology expertise and self-study in programming to establish a leveraged ETF greed and fear index valuation model, along with an automated trading system to complement it.

After continuous running and iteration, I have developed a method that works for me. I have recovered all the losses of over 2 million and even achieved significant profits.

Previous me: Others fear my greed, others' small losses bankrupt me; current me: Others fear my greed, I fear others' greed.Taking the Chinese asset market during this National Day as an example, I continued to buy during the market panic in July-August, gradually reducing positions when the market sentiment was craziest during the National Day.Thoughtfully written code gives rational power to sentimental life, and automated trading helps me overcome human weaknesses effectively.。

II. Casual Chat - My Investment Philosophy

At the end of the day, investment is about stock selection and timing risk control.。Market stars are often there, but centenarians are extremely rare, and Buffett is one of a kind.How to balance these elements to create your own trading system or even a life trading system may be a puzzle that every investor wants to answer.

Q1: Before discussing the "risk control when selecting stocks" trading system, the nickname used by Shouge - "Shou Zhu Dai Tu valuation model" is quite funny and interesting. Could the teacher please explain?

：Investment is a process of waiting patiently for opportunities and strictly following discipline, patience being the best virtue for investors.In most of the time, I will stick to my fundamental analysis, "nodding" obediently. Once there is a higher probability of profit opportunity, I will "attack" decisively.For example, Futu's USD Cash Plus currently offers a risk-free return of 4.6%. Suppose you lose 5% by buying stocks, then you will have a 10% difference from others even if you do nothing.When the style aligns with your abilities, seize some investment opportunities within your capacity circle. This way, the annual return will also be quite good.

Q2: Why focus on ETFs as the asset class?

First of all,ETF is a type of investment that is "immortal and continuously rising", with a very high fault tolerance.As long as you are buying CSI 300 and other wide-based ETFs with long-term upward fluctuations, $TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$ 、 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ making money is just a matter of time. Furthermore, I always believe that,buying (index) ETF is like buying into the national prosperityIf you enjoy speculating on short-selling stocks, consider who your opponents are. Additionally,槓桿ETF波動大，做波段有足夠的利潤，震盪行情也可以網格交易。綜合這些種種原因，所以我專注於ETF這個品種。

Q3：老師好像在牛牛圈還分享過一些“期權賣方的收租”經驗？

：對，我之前在牛牛圈分享過，可能牛友們都比較喜歡當“房東”收租的這種感覺吧。做期權賣方，既能增強收益、也能提升持股體驗。當貪恐指數發出貪婪信號時，我會賣出正股並賣一些call，而發出恐慌信號時，我會買入正股並賣一些put。Time is the friend of options sellers. As an options seller, don't worry about being exercised. If by any chance, I would still be very grateful, after all, I can sell the underlying stock at a higher price and buy it at a lower price.。

III. Building Your Own Trading System - How to balance risk control when selecting stocks?

Q1: The most anticipated question for today! That is, let's chat with "Shou Ge" specifically about the understanding of risk control in stock selection. Are there any frameworks or concepts that can be shared here for us to reference and learn from?

:①In stock selection, good varieties + good prices = good returns. I focus on some triple-leveraged ETFs that are long-term, highly liquid, and have low correlation.

②Timing SelectionI wonder if all retail investors have the same feeling, often buying at the peak and selling at the bottom. At that time, I often thought, "Why are you focusing on the three melons and two dates in my pocket all day instead of concentrating on your block orders?" So When facing opportunities with less certainty, I would rather miss out than make mistakes.。

Some friends also ask me how I view rsp,Rsp is actually more suitable for long-term investors who are indifferent to short-term market fluctuations and take a relaxed approach. Since I have chosen a triple leveraged etf with relatively high wear and tear, I can determine market sentiment and depth based on greed and fear indicators, and pick up chips at more attractive prices, so I don't adopt the rsp strategy myself.Planting trees for the next generation, while developing my own leveraged etf greed and fear index, I also referred to CNN's greed and fear index. Similar to the greed index, there are different trading strategies at different values of oscillation, and mine is also the same.

Planting trees for the next generation, while developing my own leveraged etf greed and fear index, I also referred to CNN's greed and fear index. Similar to the greed index, there are different trading strategies at different values of oscillation, and mine is also the same.

③Risk control：Risk control is a technical activity. Investment itself is not risky, only uncontrolled investment carries risks.。Especially the longer you stay in the market, the more you will understand the difficulty and value of this.After selecting the timing, the trades are gradually entered on a daily basis, for example, each of my trades will be around 5,000 Hong Kong dollars when considering the total. The limit for a single ETF in the entire asset portfolio should not exceed 5%. Here, I refer to the Hang Seng Technology Index's standard of limiting the weight of the largest stock to 8%. For leveraged ETFs, as they already carry leverage, I believe 5% is sufficient, providing a defensive position that allows for both attack and retreat. This ensures that even if a single symbol in the entire portfolio drops by 100%, the impact on the entire account is limited.

Q2: Do you have any reference technical analysis indicators here?

I actually refer to technical indicators such as MACD, RSI, and KDJ, but you will find that from major events like the Federal Reserve considering interest rate cuts to minor decisions like placing personal orders, I take all of them into account.We even see indicators fighting each other.One indicator tells me to buy now, another indicator tells me to sell now, and then a lot of information and news come at once. It's hard to know who to believe, so how do I make a decision in the end?Children have choices, but adults have to make them all.So, I combine different indicators and weights to calculate the greed and fear index, then simplify to give a final score. The greed and fear index ranges from -100 to 100, consider selling if above 60, consider buying if below -60. It's simple, just leave the decision to the model, and be a disciplined tool yourself.

Q3: Sounds very interesting! The teacher seems to be using our futu API interface.What are the teacher's personal feelings about using futu's API interface for quantitative trading, for example, pros and cons?？

Yes.In terms of advantages, Futu's algo trading features are particularly responsive in market data, with comprehensive and complete development documentation, making it very user-friendly for individual developers.I have used some other brokerages before, either the returned market snapshots had issues or there was significant delay.Originally, Futu's app user experience was very smooth, and after integrating with Futu's API, I sincerely felt the profound technical strength of Futu. If I have to mention a disadvantage, it's still a bit expensive, but the stability of the trading system outweighs everything, especially when it comes to the security of stock funds, which you can always trust Futu on.

Q4: Finally, I'd like to ask fellow Mooers a small question: Do you have any suggestions for friends who are interested in algo trading and enjoy investment trading?

：Algo trading has given me mental and emotional freedom, allowing me to calmly navigate stock market fluctuations. I recommend fellow Mooers to learn some programming knowledge. It's the era of AI now, even if you don't trade, it's very beneficial to enhance your competitiveness in the workplace.Now it's the AI era, even if you're not trading, it's very beneficial for improving your competitiveness in the workplace.

Quoting a sentence from the Futu OpenAPI website, 'Futu Futubull OpenAPI provides rich market and trading interfaces for your algorithmic trading, meeting the quantitative investment needs of every developer and helping you realize your dream of being a quant trader.' I wish friends who are interested in algo trading and enjoy investment trading to achieve this dream soon here.

Interactive with prizes

1、你有哪些獨特的情緒指標來幫助自己擇時？

2、看完本篇內容或者ETF投資有什麼心得What about it?

Mooers are welcome to share freely on the above 2 topics, with more than 30 words and reasonable arguments, to earn 66 points.

Leave your opinions in the comment section~

Deadline: 24:00 on November 17th

Disclaimer: The content of this article is organized by Futu Options Sir, and the images in the article are provided and authorized for use by @Futu Options Sir. The case study in the article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The information in the article does not constitute any industry or indicator recommendation; the stock information and introduction involved only represent the user's personal opinions and do not constitute any stock recommendation. Past performance of individual stocks does not guarantee future performance. The stock market involves risks, and investment should be cautious.@守猪逮兔估值模型Accept.@慢慢变富的牛牛interviewed@守猪逮兔估值模型The article cases are for reference only, not for investment advice. The related information in the article does not constitute any industry or indicators recommendation; the stock information and introductions involved only represent the user's personal opinions, not constitute any stock recommendations. Past performance of individual stocks does not represent future performance. The stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.

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