政策大禮包頻出!中國資產能否持續回暖?
前言:記錄牛牛圈發生的交易經歷和故事,從真實的思考和交易感悟中,學習選股擇時風控,探索普通人如何“慢慢變富”。文章正文約3000字,十分值得按讚、收藏、轉發!預計閱讀時間: 5分鐘!
本輪港股、A股、中概股行情的爆發,在一場大家意料之外的發佈會後啓動,各大投行、外資的轉向,使得整個市場呈現出了單邊的行情
。上證指數5個交易日內暴漲20%,2700迅速上漲至3300點上方;伴隨進入國慶假期,A股休市,港股依然延續了節前狂熱的行情,僅僅4個交易日,再度上升近10%,其間地產股、券商股、半導體輪番上升,大量個股一日升一倍
...As the National Day holiday comes to an end, many investors who missed opportunities during this period are eager to try, but the market quickly fell into a correction, with the Hang Seng Index hovering around 23,000 and the SSE Composite Index ... $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ returning from around 23,000 to near 20,000 points, while the SSE Composite Index ... $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ reached a high of around 3,674 before falling back to 3,200.
...When the market was in a slump, the central bank made a significant statement, and on Friday, the market staged a strong counterattack! The Hang Seng Index surged violently by 700 points in one day!
"The 'crazy bull' market trend comes to an end, but the future market outlook remains uncertain. In this market, some mooers made a fortune while others felt despondent...What kind of trading stories are unfolding in the mooer community? And what strategies and insights are left behind?
In this market, some mooers made a fortune while others felt despondent...What kind of trading stories are unfolding in the mooer community?
And what strategies and insights are left behind? Let's take a closer look.
Next, let's see what's happening!
!
![前言:記錄牛牛圈發生的交易經歷和故事,從真實的思考和交易感悟中,學習選股擇時風控,探索普通人如何“慢慢變富”。文章正文約3000字,十分值得按讚、收藏、轉發!預計閱讀時間: 5分鐘! 本輪港股、A股、中概股行情的爆發,在一場大家意料之外的發佈會後啓動,各大投行、外資的轉向,使得整個市場呈現出了單邊的行情[Scowl]。上證指數5個交易日內暴漲20%,2700迅速上漲至3300點上方;伴隨進入國慶假期,A股休市,港股依然延續了節前狂熱的行情,僅僅4個交易日,再度上升近10%,其間地產股、券商股、半導體輪番上升,大量個股一日升一倍[Drool]...伴隨着國慶假期結束,大量其間錯失機會的股民躍躍欲試,但行情也快速陷入了調整,恆指 $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ 從23000回到20000點附近徘徊,上證指數 $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ 最高衝高到從3674附近回落到3200[Cry]...市場陷入低迷時,央行重磅發聲,週五市場再現強勢反攻!恆指一日暴力拉升700點! “瘋牛”行情告一段落,但後市行情依然撲朔迷離[Thinking Face]。這...](https://nnqimage.futunn.com/sns_client_feed/999960/20241018/1729244217166-8aa4c79075.jpeg/big?area=2&is_public=true&imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
First, the investment life in the mooer circle
In this sudden policy shift bringing a 'crazy bull' market, there are mooer participating in the market explosionon the first night (September 24)already hada relatively popular policy interpretation, and showed off their trading orders, also shared their investment strategy。
Today seems a bit fierce! Let's jump straight to the summary!
1. in the future, there will be a 0.5 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements to stimulate consumer spending
2. Lowering loan interest rates and down payments to stimulate consumer spending
3. Establishing special loans for share buyback and shareholding → providing funds
4. The stabilization fund is under research → providing funds
5. Establishing convenient swaps to increase institutional sources of funding for stock investment and only used for → providing funds
6. Support Huijin to increase its shareholding in the capital markets → provide funding
7. For companies with long-term net losses, it is necessary to develop a value enhancement plan → boost stock prices
8. Promote mergers and acquisitions, and simplify the review process → boost stock prices
If we say, on September 24th, most people in the market were not aware of the policy and market direction change. But as the saying goes, "One bullish candlestick changes perspectives", let alone several continuous large bullish candles, the market has already risen to a dizzying height. Subsequently, this mooer once again shared their recentfeelings about the hot market on September 30th:
Recently, I have suddenly received more contact from Uncle's friends, who have already been accustomed to a quiet life, taking care of their children's school runs while investing, reading books, practicing calligraphy, and exercising at home.
Suddenly, many elementary school classmates who have not been in contact for many years started asking me if I had made a lot of money in stocks. My siblings who usually pay no attention to the stock market have been calling and video chatting one after another, asking if I can make a profit of twenty to thirty points for them to exit... I wonder if the aunties downstairs in the neighborhood who dance in the square after dinner are also discussing A-shares?
However, in mid-September, everyone was still immersed in the pessimistic mood of daily trading volume of less than 500 billion in the two markets.
After enduring the interest rate hike cycle, we have finally ushered in the rate reduction cycle of the Federal Reserve. Now that the cards are on the table, the overall environment is very favorable, and both China and the United States will enter a period of loose liquidity.
Experience the current madness. Brokerage software crashes, rags-to-riches stories...
In addition, mooer have also made high points on this wave of market trends.accurate prediction, looking back $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$ recent high point of 59.261 just corresponds to the range of 58-60. And at that time, mooer also patiently answered the differences between YINN and CHAU, two types of ETFs, futubull also benefited a lot!
Posted on September 24th:$Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$ No need to doubt the breakthrough with sufficient volume, two price surges are met, Heng Seng Technology is 4568, still 16% away from today's closing price, going long 3 times is 40-45%;
Posted on September 30th:$Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$ Not bad, recalculated again. There is still space, need to pull to 58 to 60 blocks for mid-term consolidation. It's about 50% more space.
Furthermore, when the market is extremely hot, there are alsoRisk warningvoices.
I hope to increasingly return to the mean reversion trading strategy. Market rises are not in a single form, with artificial markets, economic prosperity, economic recession, asset bubbles, war outbreaks, natural disasters, and so on. Each form of trading strategy is different, but people often tend to lose themselves in artificial bull markets, making a full profit in bull markets, then losing everything when the trend changes abruptly to the next form, eventually ending up with nothing or even deep in debt, facing the consequences. When the person who rose to the top thanks to the heavens, when did they ever think that the moment they made a full profit in the first place would lead them to the top?
Of course, when this sudden "
Roller coaster" market is over, there will be different mooers who will reflect and contemplate more.Reflection and contemplation:
@Food流油When the market is about to enter a unilateral trend, how to effectively utilize the leverage of ETFs and the extreme amplification of profits through options.
1. Introduction to YINN Leveraged ETF
2. Operation Principle
3. Analysis of the Profitability of Leveraged ETFs
4. When is the right time, and which group of people is suitable to buy Leveraged ETFs
5. Extreme Profit Amplification Strategy - Options
6. Operation Principle of Options
7. 槓桿ETF期權的收益能力分析
8. 期權適合什麼時機,什麼人羣購買
9. 市場突然反轉的策略應對
10. 風險揭示(特別提醒,一定要仔細閱!)
From the beginning of a bull market, it must be extremely fast and fierce, causing regret for those who miss out, and forcing them to only buy stocks at high levels, with more likely intraday large adjustments rather than a trend of decline.
Now that the bull market has arrived, how should we position ourselves to maximize profits?
①: The first batch of 500 billion yuan from the central bank was given to brokerages, insurance, and non-banking financial companies, and the beginning of each round of a bull market will undoubtedly lead with major financial institutions.
②: Worth paying attention to undervalued state-owned enterprises, government-controlled enterprises, and the csi sws food & beverage index.
③: It is worth paying attention to the leaders in various major market segments:
④: Areas to avoid are banks (can be bought at the end of a bull market, weight protection during the downturn), old cycle high-flyers, and the older market leaders that may not show astonishing gains during a bull market, but their decline in adjustment during a bull market will be much steadier compared to speculative stocks.
Second, from frenzy to rationality, mooer's investment thoughts on the market ahead
After the Fed cut rates in September, the convergence of the economic cycle provided the central bank with greater monetary policy maneuvering space, a series of bullish policies were intensively introduced, boosting market confidence. The trend has cooled off in the past week, has the heat of Chinese concept stocks come to an end? How long will the adjustment period last? What opportunities lie ahead in the future? Let's listen to mooer's investment perspectives~
The sudden surge in enthusiasm among mainland Chinese stock investors due to the National Day holiday can lead to an uncontrollable day as more and more people pour in, compared to bullish moves in the stock market, the Chinese government hopes that the Chinese stock market can follow the slow bull market trend seen in the US stock market, but this is only limited to the preset trend, market sentiment adjustment and the retention of hot money pose a complex management challenge. This can be explored from the trading logic of the Hong Kong and A-share markets on the first day of this week, where the policy market heavily relies on speculative news.
Selling off on Monday was just to take profits during the National Day holiday, not a negative view of this policy wave. Still optimistic about this wave of policies in China in the long run. Currently, the market is driven by policy frenzy, gradually transitioning into a healthy slow bull market. Foreign and speculative capital focus on profit via data, it is necessary to observe whether the subsequent economic data truly improve. At the same time, indications from the country's big meeting on Saturday imply that the support this time will be continuous and significant in scale.
In addition, regarding the follow-up of this wave of market trends, I actually do not pay special attention to short-term fluctuations. The unprecedented surge last week was only a dozen or twenty points. But in my eyes, Chinese stocks are greatly undervalued. For example, China Construction Bank (CCB). $CM BANK (03968.HK)$ I estimate a reasonable PE ratio of 12-15 times, currently it is 5 times. Even if it increases by 100%, it is only a return to value, far from being considered a bubble. I do not know if this market trend can continue in the short term. I do not do short-term trading, but as long as the Chinese economy emerges from the trough and resumes growth in the long term, Chinese stocks still have a multiple of upside potential.
As is well known, due to the control measures and changes in the economic environment in recent years, Chinese internet companies are severely undervalued in primary and secondary markets. Many people believe that Chinese internet companies have lost their investment value. But my view is just the opposite. Although they may not bring returns as high as before, companies that have been tempered are more resilient and still have investment value.
The A-share market often experiences "dramatic trends," so there is no need to calculate too finely, as that would be foolish. Originally, it is a market driven by emotions and policies, so market fluctuations will certainly be significant. However, I don't care about those. You do your oscillation, I won't sell high and will only buy low. Even if you act absurdly, it doesn't matter to me; I will follow my own rhythm.
【Interactive Quiz】
Finally, let's have a small interaction. Feel free to leave your views, opinions, and strategies on this article or the current Chinese asset market.or any viewpoints, opinions, and strategies.~Participate in the discussion (30 words or more)reasonable words can earn 66 points~
Activity deadline: 24:00 on October 25, 2024
The above wonderful posts are selected based on the quality of content and interaction, etc. to ensure smooth reading. Without changing the original viewpoint, some comments from Mooer have been slightly modified, which does not constitute any investment or financial advice.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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