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【Investment Talk】Tesla stock price rises?! What should I see about the latest results?

On sale yesterday (July 22),$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The share price rose by more than 5%. The trigger is that Musk revealed that Tesla plans to start small production of the Optimus humanoid robot next year, mainly for internal use within the company, and hopes to achieve mass export in 2026.

The current market has different expectations for Tesla's electric car market, artificial intelligence, autonomous driving software, driverless taxis, Optimus robots, etc.

Tesla will announce the results after today (July 24). What should I look at the new results? ResultsWhat are the key factors that could have a significant impact on the share price? Mainly look at the following 3 aspects.

1. Sales volume changes

First of all, for new energy vehicle enterprises,The most important indicator of observation is always total delivery, or say sales volume. vs$Tesla (TSLA.US)$This is even more so for such a flagship enterprise. Why?

First, the higher the sales volume, the greater the market share and the higher the brand voice in the consumer group.

Second, the growth in sales will also be reflected in the revenue generated by Tesla's record of rapid growth, driven primarily by new vehicle sales.

Third, the higher the sales volume, the stronger the scale effect, and the higher the profit margin. This is more evident in the early stages of Tesla's development, where Tesla's sales volume has reached a sufficient level and the impact on profitability is relatively limited.

Because this indicator of sales is so important,Tesla's share price movement is also closely related to its sales volume.

In general, new energy car companies publish their sales volume every month, so Tesla's sales are generally ahead of the results. weFinance module on Futubull app, you can see the trend of quarterly changes in Tesla car sales.

We can see that in the first quarter of 2022, Tesla sales almost stopped growing,In the second quarter of 2022, there was another decline for the first time. Tesla's share price also showed a big drop in Q1 2022.

On the contrary, in the second quarter of 2023,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Sales continued to exceed expectations, which also blew up Tesla's stock price.

Then Why is Tesla's sales volume going down in such a big way? It has a lot to do with Tesla's pricing strategy. TESLA CAR PRICES DECLINED OVERALL IN Q4 2021, COUPLED WITH A SURGE IN DEMAND FOR NEW ENERGY VEHICLES, AND SALES ROSE SHARPLY.

Starting in the fourth quarter of 2021, Tesla began to increase prices continuously due to increased battery prices. Bike revenue rose from $5.07 million to $5.57 million, while Tesla's sales were also under pressure, eventually declining.

By Q3 2022,TESLA REINSTATED PRICE REDUCTIONS, WITH SALES GROWTH EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS.Tesla's share price also rose from the bottom of $100 to once more than $280.

However, in Q1 2024, Tesla sales fell back on track again, with sales in the first quarter of 2024 falling by 0.4 million vehicles, setting a new low since 2022Q4, and the share price fell sharply. In 2024Q2, Tesla sales rebounded again to reach 0.444 million vehicles, exceeding market expectations. The stimulus for the share price was also evident, up more than 20% since July.

2. Changes in profitability

For new energy companies, there is no revenue without sales, but what the company ultimately pursues is profit. If profitability is not profitable and light does not increase profits, investors will also vote with their feet.

For example, the first three Sinju, Ideal and Xiaopeng cars, which were the first to be released in the new automotive powerhouse, were profitable first, while the profitability of the Wai Lai and Xiaopeng did not improve. Therefore, the ideal historical share price has also fallen significantly, but it is still far stronger than that of Zilai and Xiaopeng.

then$Tesla (TSLA.US)$What about the profitability situation?It is closely related to its sales volume and price movement.Previously, the company's gross and net profit margins also rose rapidly, when Tesla sales were climbing rapidly.

For example, Futu's financial indicators data show that from 12.5% in the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2022, Tesla's profit margin increased from 12.5% to almost 30%. INCREASED NET LUBRICATION RATE FROM -14.7% TO 17.5%.

During this period, while Tesla's sales declined overall, the decline in battery costs, coupled with improved profitability from scale, dominated.

So now, with Tesla selling to a certain extent,Tesla's profitability is more about seeing changes in selling prices and costs.

In 2023, with Tesla's continued sharp price declines, its profitability began to decline significantly, with gross interest rates peaking at over 25% in 2022, falling en route to around 17.6% in Q4 2023, and net interest rates falling from over 15% en route to about 8% in 2023Q3.

In the first quarter of the year, the interest rate on the island remained unchanged, falling to 17.4%, and the net interest rate also fell to about 5.4%.

So for the upcoming FY2024 report, Tesla's profitability data in the results may still be the focus of our attention, and if profitability fails to stop the downtrend, its share price may continue to bear pressure.

3. Comparison of actual results with market expectations

After each release of Tesla results, we also need to focus on the comparison of actual results with previous market expectations. For$Tesla (TSLA.US)$For companies with a high level of attention, analysts make predictions about the performance of companies in general in the city prior to the release of their results. Analyst predicted data can be easily found in the Futubull APP.

As for the Tesla results, we're here mainlyComparison of actual data and analysts' forecasts on two indicators of revenue and earnings per share (EPS)。

In terms of revenue, since Tesla's vehicle sales have been released in advance and Tesla's revenue largely comes from car sales, analysts predict its revenue most of the time accurately.

And another indicatorEarnings per share, and the flexibility to change may be greater, is also a point of great concern for the market.If EPS exceeds expectations, the short line in the stock price may perform well, on the contrary, there may be short line pressure.

For example, Tesla's actual EPS for 2024Q1 results was $0.34, below the $0.42 expected by analysts. Forming a short-term profit gap, Tesla's share price also showed a short decline after the results. For the upcoming new results, we can continue to focus on the comparison of its actual EPS with expectations.

Write here for how you read$Tesla (TSLA.US)$There may be some new insights into the results. It's worth mentioning that every time many star companies post results, it can mean a tough trading opportunity for different types of investors.

For example, if an investor feels that a company's recent performance will release some positive signals and favor short-term stock prices by interpreting past performance and incorporating recent progress, investors may consider doing more, and doing more could be to consider buying positive stocks, or consider buying bullish options, etc.

Conversely, if investors feel that the latest performance of a company will be less than optimistic and put pressure on short-term stock prices, investors may consider going blank, or consider buying bearish options, etc.

Of course, if investors feel that the direction of a company's performance is not very clear, but the stock price may fluctuate significantly upwards or downwards after the results are released, then investors may consider doing more of its share price volatility and consider buying both bullish and bearish cross strategies to gain a foothold In Opportunity.

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Finally, we summarize

For$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Linked to the performance and share price, we need to pay attention to changes in sales volume each month, which is the cornerstone of the company's competitiveness in the industry; we need Tesla's profitability to improve in future performance, which could put sustained pressure on its share price if profitability continues to weaken.

In addition, we also need to pay attention to the contrast of Tesla's future performance with expectations, which will put a lot of pressure on short-term share prices if they continue to be below expectations and will also hit market confidence in the long term.

It is worth noting that the above performance points cannot be viewed in isolation and require a comprehensive analysis of their impact on share prices based on the market's focus in different periods.

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