[Tam Sir, do you know] Hong Kong stocks are down? How to deploy next?

US stocks have remained strong recently, with interest rates expected in March, but the market still believes there will be a rate cut in May, which is just a change in the starting point of the rate cycle, so it has not taken too much of a hit on US stocks.

On the contrary, the trend of Hong Kong stocks is worth watching lately, and both media journalists and customers alike will be asking, “Are Hong Kong stocks here?” We will move on to discussing the current trend of Hong Kong stocks and the appropriate deployment strategy today.

THIS ROUND OF REBOUND STARTED AFTER THE HANG INDEX FELL BELOW 14794 POINTS, WHICH ALSO SAW THE RELEASE OF SOME FUNDS INTO THE BAILOUT MARKET, FOLLOWED BY A RUSH OF PUBLICITY ABOUT THE CENTRAL BANK REFORM, WHICH LED CENTRAL EQUITIES TO REBOUND CLOSE TO THE 16250 POINT LEVEL.

Following the close of the January period, the index moved back to the low of 15336 points before regaining momentum. This round was prompted by the Federal Reserve's announcement that it will continue to increase the size and strength of ETF holdings.

Looking at the chart, Heng points to a 50 antenna resumption or breaking a mid-term downtrend will intensify the taste of the end of the entire bear market.

The movements of A-shares are also very different, and people are always wondering whether the desire to ban short selling and the entry of funds into the market can break the momentum of the decline of Hong Kong stocks for four years. Is there a glimmer of light under macroeconomic pressure?

Today we will discuss the point of view on this issue and my personal opinion. First of all, weLearn about the current valuation level of Hong Kong stocks:

(Source: wind)

From the perspective of the market earnings channel, Hang pointed to the near 15000 floor below the 15000 floor, which is around two standard deviations from historical data since listing. This indicates that the valuation of Hong Kong shares is extremely cheap and indicates that the index is more prone to technical rebound at this level. This is also the case for A-shares. Close.

We do not judge from a valuation perspective whether the index is bottoming out, but we also need to understand why the index fell to a lower valuation level.

First, Hong Kong stocks have been weak for more than four years, and valuations have fallen short of two standard deviations, and this time the problems are more complicated this time due to internal housing and pandemic clearance.

The risks of first-time homeownership have not eased so far, and economic data have also raised market concerns about downside risks, leading the stock market to the downside.

However, wary investors will note that the sell-off in Mainland equities and Hong Kong stocks after 2024 has significantly increased, outpacing many of the world's major stock markets.

In addition to economic factors, some of the Mainland's financial investment derivatives (e.g. Snowball products, which are complex derivatives products) are involved. If you are interested in learning, pleaseInbound Seminar ExchangeThis factor also intensifies liquidity risk, which is believed to be the main factor in the valuation level of the drag index falling to two standard deviations.

It is for this reason that measures to ban short selling and capital inflows will be more effective than ever. In addition to the earlier news of the state enterprise reform, the short line is expected to repair market liquidity and confidence, which is also the main reason for this round of rebound.

Therefore,If, from an analytical point of view, we are talking about whether Hong Kong stocks are bottoming out, I would say that further confirmation is still neededFor example, more positive fiscal policies are needed to brighten the economic outlook to ensure that the stock market enters a bull market.

But from a trader's point of view, now is the time for a rebound in high value rates.After all, the market is expecting a series of policies to be developed to support the economy and financial markets, using technical analysis to judge the performance of the market in the short term will be more worthy of attention, while the movement of the market after the mid-term should be further clarified, or the index enters the technical bull market (the index fell 20% to reach 17755 points) Before you can confirm.

Looking at the hourly chart from the short line angle, there are signs of a pullback at the low of 14794. More importantly, after rising to the 16250 level, only a slight correction after a slight wave of 0.618 before regaining momentum, is a healthy adjustment.Short line uptrend unchanged。

At the moment, the more critical resistance is 16250 points. If the market can successfully break through this level in the short term, it is predicted to increase measurably.The index is expected to challenge the 17300 point level during the month。

Therefore, it will be crucial for Hong Kong stocks to enter a turning point this month, as there will be a number of different policies involved. We believe that the market will continue to be more repetitive and investors who engage in short-line operations will need stronger market acumen and technical judgment.

I will also be following the performance of Hong Kong stocks and HSBC's annual results talk on February 21 after the New Year. WelcomeClick to registerWe are free to participate after the New Year

。

Finally, I wish you all a Happy New Year

, Dragon Year of the Year of the Dragon, the most important thing is physical health 🎇.

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

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