[Tam sir, do you know] There is a turning point in the market? What do you think of the post-market?

Well done, I'm a senior strategist at Futu Securities.

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Okay, well, let's take a look at today's sharing below.

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Markets hit a turning point in November

Although the end of 2023 is now coming to an end, global financial markets have seen a marked turning point after November this year.

The US Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle is likely to end and the US economy will avoid a “hard landing”.Market Conditions Put “Risk On”。 RO means that market risk preference sentiment heats up due to the fact that risk-free interest rates finally fall, and investors are willing to take risks and seek returns, giving the entire US equity market a simple and rough upswing.

Not only did the wave of activity push US stocks back up again, with stocks posting their biggest single-month gain in three years in November.

The chart below is a FedWatch tool used to analyze Fed rate movements and the possible direction of U.S. monetary policy. Interest rate futures from Shiba Traders have shown a very low chance of a rate hike in the coming year, and the chance of a rate cut starting in the second quarter of 2024 has increased to more than 50%.

(Source: Shiba Store)

RO gains as inflation forecast warms

This waveROIn the future, the main benefit isSeveral economic data from the United States in recent months support inflation expectations, and markets believe the US rate hike cycle is over。

Why did the market have such a big turning point in November? First, of course, the CPI and PPI inflation data from the USA fell sharply, both of which fell significantly from historical highs, and the October data also fell short of market expectations, leading markets to believe that price gains have begun to be contained after the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to 5pc.

AGAIN, CUT INTEREST RATES, ARE THE “WOLVES COMING”?

However, the pure mooer of the heart knows,The market has peaked and failed several times in the past year. But the situation this time is significantly different from earlier ones, mainly because the likelihood of a soft landing in the US economy is increasing at the moment.

(By the way, I mentioned a high chance of a “soft landing” in the US during the first live broadcast of the Bullring, the market conditions are RO)

First, we want to understand what is an economic “soft landing”; a “soft landing” refers to the economy returning steadily to a zone of moderate economic growth after overexpansion, without massive contraction and unemployment during the recession。Therefore, the slowdown in inflation and the performance of the employment data are also very important.

Based on the latest US employment data, the unemployment rate has been at the level of “national employment” for the past two years, so the employment market as a whole has not been significantly affected and wage growth has accelerated after a wave of job cuts at US companies earlier this year. But the rate of increase in the non-farm weekly wage ratio announced recently in October has fallen to 0%, the lowest level in 32 months. Data from various sectors are supporting the slowing US economy, but at the same time there is no large-scale contraction and unemployment.

“Soft Landing” Successfully Forced “Stagger Offloading”

As long as U.S. employment levels remain stable, domestic U.S. consumer behavior will also provide stability during the economic slowdown.

Looking at the recent US Traditional Retail Mondays data, the US Black Friday shopping festival recorded a record $98 billion in online spending, up 7.5% year on year. Strong data shows it is hard to say that the US economy is showing signs of a slowdown.

So,Markets in November as start to confirm US economy 'soft landing', this “soft landing” did not cause the bull market to return immediately, butThe short line forced the market to speculate on the “hard landing” of the US economy, i.e. the “lagging position”which explains why the rise in November was hasty and harsh.

How are US stocks valued in Q1 2024?

When investors see this article, not only should they understand the turning point in November, they will also be wondering how the performance of US stocks or even the Hong Kong stock market is going?

The author believes that the whole optimistic mood will be maintained,The outlook for the first quarter of next year is still very optimistic。 First of all, U.S. stocks reported Q3, and the results were generally better than market expectations, leaving the U.S. stocks in a reasonable range of valuations, while pushing back near 52-week highs. The S&P 500, while close to 24 times market earnings, is still below a standard spread.

The rise in U.S. stocks this year was concentrated in seven major tech stocks, while Q3 results also showed the market's pessimism about some second-line tech stocks, causing many undersupplied fund managers to be forced to chase. Arkk also points to a run in November. Currently, market capital liquidity remains ample under the Fed's brief, and it is difficult to estimate the index until the EPS in the US shares did not show a bearish momentum. Favorable factors in the season of powder windows believe that US stocks will still be on the rise until the first quarter of next year.

(Source: WIND)

Finally, one topic will be sold, and then consumers will share their views on the market in Futubull, and then there will be three topics in the short term:

Is interest rate cut coming? How can investors deploy this wave action?

US Stocks 2024 Next Star Stock Introduction?

Is there a reversal in Hong Kong stocks in 2024?

We hope to have more opportunities to communicate with our mooers today and welcome all mooers.Click on the link enrolmentAfter a practical talk with our Futu shop experience, and if our mooers are struggling to invest, we would be happy to join our mutual fund sharing service for a deeper interaction between the investment groups.

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