Opportunities and risks reflected in Novo Nordisk's Q3 earnings report

On November 2, 2023, Novo Nordisk disclosed its 2023 three-quarter report. The analysis of Novo Nordisk's financial situation for the current quarter is as follows:

1. The weight loss sector benefits from a good competitive pattern and strong growth. Investors need to pay attention to changes in the overall competitive landscape

Sales in the third quarter and the obesity care business were DKK 54.83 billion, up 36% year over year, mainly due to a 37% increase in sales of GLP-1 drugs;

The obesity care business had sales of DKK 12.26 billion, an increase of 183% over the previous year.

2. Other business aspects: Revenue in the rare disease sector declined significantly, and insulin revenue also declined

Rare diseases and insulin are currently in a declining revenue stage. Among them, rare diseases are mainly affected by declining production and declining overall revenue. In the future, a number of drugs will be launched in the US and Japan one after another;

In the insulin market, Novo Nordisk has had a high market share for a long time, and the market fluctuates slightly.

Overall, for investors in Novo Nordisk, they need to pay more attention to the competitive landscape, the growth of new oral drugs, and investors in other weight loss products need to pay more attention:

(1) Competition versus manual action is worth paying attention to. If rival Lilly's similar drug Mounjaro is approved for weight loss, relying on Lilly's own marketing ability and market attention to the same type of drug, it is expected to impact the competitive landscape. In the short term, Novo Nordisk's valuation level will be negatively correlated with the sales volume of Lilly drugs after approval;

(2) Oral weight loss drugs are expected to increase market space. However, in a longer cycle, the emergence of weight loss drugs is a new product after technological breakthroughs. It is an incremental market, and oral weight loss drugs are awaiting approval, so there will be more incremental markets;

(3) Investments in other weight loss products need to be prudent. The more alternative is the consumption of other weight loss products. Therefore, investors need to be careful to invest in other types of weight loss companies, including gyms, weight loss health products, etc.

Therefore, in terms of trading strategy, Novo Nordisk has been in a positive direction for a long time, and the trading process invests based on changes in the competitive pattern and production of new drugs.

(The author is a license holder of the Securities Regulatory Commission)

Declaration of interest: There are no related stocks at the time of writing.

Source: “Novo Nordisk Q3 Company Presents”, company website

$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$

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