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變革後的阿里，最新業績將交出什麼答卷？
富途研究
joined discussion · Aug 4, 2023 18:25 ·

Alibaba (BABA.N) | Second quarter earnings forecast: repressive factors are difficult to solve in the short term

#睇業績用富途牛牛 #
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Alibaba（BABA.N) 二季度財報前瞻：壓制因素短期難解-富途證券-2023.8.3.pdf449.2K
Before the market on August 10, EST, Alibaba will release its Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2024 (ending June 2023).
Core views
1. Chinese businesses are expected to benefit from year-on-year growth in the overall retail market
China's commercial business is expected to be driven by a recovery in domestic consumption this quarter. Total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased 18%/13%/3.1% year-on-year from April to June 2023. The implementation of a number of promotional activities is conducive to the rebound of GMV. However, competition in the industry is becoming increasingly heated, and focusing on low price competition may cause the growth rate of Alibaba's e-commerce business to be weaker than the overall market, while also affecting the increase in the monetization rate.
2. It is expected that the growth rate of international business will continue to increase this quarter
As revenue expands and many negative factors have been mitigated, it is expected that international business losses will continue to narrow this quarter. On AliExpress's side, the impact of the European VAT VAT tax has been eliminated, the new feature AE Choice has received a good response, and the pilot project is gradually being expanded. On the Trendyol side, Turkey's exchange rate stabilized, and the negative impact of the earthquake on Trendyol gradually disappeared in March, and the new market in Azerbaijan began to expand; the development strategy of Shopee, Lazada's core competitor in Southeast Asia, changed, from focusing on revenue to focusing on profit, and the competitive landscape slowed down somewhat in the short term.
3. The cloud business is still expected to be under pressure, and the price reduction strategy will take time to reflect
Due to macro-level influences, enterprises are more cautious in spending on cloud computing. There was no significant recovery in the trend of enterprise customers cutting and optimizing cloud usage in the second quarter, and the slump in cloud computing is likely to continue.
The price reduction strategy for the cloud business will take time to be reflected. Revenue from non-internet customers will continue to rise, and the impact of loss of leading customers will gradually be eliminated. In April of this year, Alibaba Cloud launched the biggest price reduction in history. In the fierce market competition, price reductions in the short term may lead to a decline in the ability of the new order business to generate revenue. The medium to long term is conducive to expanding the number of users and seizing market share. The rapid development of AI is expected to bring about incremental demand for the cloud. As of July, more than 300,000 companies had applied to test a thousand questions, which is expected to drive the future growth of cloud business.
Investment advice
Currently, Bloomberg's unanimous forecast for fiscal year 2024 for Q1 is 223 billion yuan, up 8.5% year on year; adjusted EBITA is 37.9 billion yuan, up 10.2% year on year. We believe that Alibaba's revenue and profit are expected to rebound this quarter. The increase is mainly due to the low base of domestic e-commerce and loss reduction in international e-commerce business in the same period last year. The overall revenue growth rate is expected to be in line with market expectations.
As far as Alibaba is concerned, the market's sensitivity to profit growth brought about by cost reduction and efficiency has gradually declined, and they are even more looking forward to substantial revenue growth. Currently, the main factors limiting stock prices are the weak overall recovery in consumption, the heated e-commerce competition pattern, and the weakness and intense competition of the cloud computing business. Up to now, the above factors have not been effectively improved. There is uncertainty about shareholder returns brought about by repurchases, market concerns remain, performance prospects are uncertain, and the suppression of valuation is difficult to lift in the short term.
In terms of investment strategies, various businesses, such as Cloud Business, Cainiao Business, and Hema, have disclosed the progress of spin-off listings, which is expected to form a stock price catalyst. At the same time, the implementation of Ant Group's penalties indicates that the platform's economic risks have been clarified. If favorable policies are implemented in the future, short-term valuations are expected to increase. Investors are advised to pay close attention to short-term trading opportunities brought about by events.
Risk warning
Consumption recovery falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; cloud computing slump exceeds expectations; geopolitical risks
Main text
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # Before the market on August 10, EST, Alibaba will release its Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2024 (ending June 2023). Core views 1. Chinese businesses are expected to benefit from year-on-year growth in the overall retail market China's commercial business is expected to be driven by a recovery in domestic consumption this quarter. Total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased 18%/13%/3.1% year-on-year from April to June 2023. The implementation of a number of promotional activities is conducive to the rebound of GMV. However, competition in the industry is becoming increasingly heated, and focusing on low price competition may cause the growth rate of Alibaba's e-commerce business to be weaker than the overall market, while also affecting the increase in the monetization rate. 2. It is expected that the growth rate of international business will continue to increase this quarter As revenue expands and many negative factors have been mitigated, it is expected that international business losses will continue to narrow this quarter. On AliExpress's side, the impact of the European VAT VAT tax has been eliminated, the new feature AE Choice has received a good response, and the pilot project is gradually being expanded. On the Trendyol side, Turkey's exchange rate stabilized, and the negative impact of the earthquake on Trendyol gradually disappeared in March, and the new market in Azerbaijan began to expand; the development strategy of Shopee, Lazada's core competitor in Southeast Asia, changed, from focusing on revenue to focusing on profit, and the competitive landscape slowed down somewhat in the short term. 3. The cloud business is still expected to be under pressure, and the price reduction strategy will take time to reflect Dependent on the macro...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # Before the market on August 10, EST, Alibaba will release its Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2024 (ending June 2023). Core views 1. Chinese businesses are expected to benefit from year-on-year growth in the overall retail market China's commercial business is expected to be driven by a recovery in domestic consumption this quarter. Total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased 18%/13%/3.1% year-on-year from April to June 2023. The implementation of a number of promotional activities is conducive to the rebound of GMV. However, competition in the industry is becoming increasingly heated, and focusing on low price competition may cause the growth rate of Alibaba's e-commerce business to be weaker than the overall market, while also affecting the increase in the monetization rate. 2. It is expected that the growth rate of international business will continue to increase this quarter As revenue expands and many negative factors have been mitigated, it is expected that international business losses will continue to narrow this quarter. On AliExpress's side, the impact of the European VAT VAT tax has been eliminated, the new feature AE Choice has received a good response, and the pilot project is gradually being expanded. On the Trendyol side, Turkey's exchange rate stabilized, and the negative impact of the earthquake on Trendyol gradually disappeared in March, and the new market in Azerbaijan began to expand; the development strategy of Shopee, Lazada's core competitor in Southeast Asia, changed, from focusing on revenue to focusing on profit, and the competitive landscape slowed down somewhat in the short term. 3. The cloud business is still expected to be under pressure, and the price reduction strategy will take time to reflect Dependent on the macro...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # Before the market on August 10, EST, Alibaba will release its Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2024 (ending June 2023). Core views 1. Chinese businesses are expected to benefit from year-on-year growth in the overall retail market China's commercial business is expected to be driven by a recovery in domestic consumption this quarter. Total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased 18%/13%/3.1% year-on-year from April to June 2023. The implementation of a number of promotional activities is conducive to the rebound of GMV. However, competition in the industry is becoming increasingly heated, and focusing on low price competition may cause the growth rate of Alibaba's e-commerce business to be weaker than the overall market, while also affecting the increase in the monetization rate. 2. It is expected that the growth rate of international business will continue to increase this quarter As revenue expands and many negative factors have been mitigated, it is expected that international business losses will continue to narrow this quarter. On AliExpress's side, the impact of the European VAT VAT tax has been eliminated, the new feature AE Choice has received a good response, and the pilot project is gradually being expanded. On the Trendyol side, Turkey's exchange rate stabilized, and the negative impact of the earthquake on Trendyol gradually disappeared in March, and the new market in Azerbaijan began to expand; the development strategy of Shopee, Lazada's core competitor in Southeast Asia, changed, from focusing on revenue to focusing on profit, and the competitive landscape slowed down somewhat in the short term. 3. The cloud business is still expected to be under pressure, and the price reduction strategy will take time to reflect Dependent on the macro...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # Before the market on August 10, EST, Alibaba will release its Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2024 (ending June 2023). Core views 1. Chinese businesses are expected to benefit from year-on-year growth in the overall retail market China's commercial business is expected to be driven by a recovery in domestic consumption this quarter. Total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased 18%/13%/3.1% year-on-year from April to June 2023. The implementation of a number of promotional activities is conducive to the rebound of GMV. However, competition in the industry is becoming increasingly heated, and focusing on low price competition may cause the growth rate of Alibaba's e-commerce business to be weaker than the overall market, while also affecting the increase in the monetization rate. 2. It is expected that the growth rate of international business will continue to increase this quarter As revenue expands and many negative factors have been mitigated, it is expected that international business losses will continue to narrow this quarter. On AliExpress's side, the impact of the European VAT VAT tax has been eliminated, the new feature AE Choice has received a good response, and the pilot project is gradually being expanded. On the Trendyol side, Turkey's exchange rate stabilized, and the negative impact of the earthquake on Trendyol gradually disappeared in March, and the new market in Azerbaijan began to expand; the development strategy of Shopee, Lazada's core competitor in Southeast Asia, changed, from focusing on revenue to focusing on profit, and the competitive landscape slowed down somewhat in the short term. 3. The cloud business is still expected to be under pressure, and the price reduction strategy will take time to reflect Dependent on the macro...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # Before the market on August 10, EST, Alibaba will release its Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2024 (ending June 2023). Core views 1. Chinese businesses are expected to benefit from year-on-year growth in the overall retail market China's commercial business is expected to be driven by a recovery in domestic consumption this quarter. Total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased 18%/13%/3.1% year-on-year from April to June 2023. The implementation of a number of promotional activities is conducive to the rebound of GMV. However, competition in the industry is becoming increasingly heated, and focusing on low price competition may cause the growth rate of Alibaba's e-commerce business to be weaker than the overall market, while also affecting the increase in the monetization rate. 2. It is expected that the growth rate of international business will continue to increase this quarter As revenue expands and many negative factors have been mitigated, it is expected that international business losses will continue to narrow this quarter. On AliExpress's side, the impact of the European VAT VAT tax has been eliminated, the new feature AE Choice has received a good response, and the pilot project is gradually being expanded. On the Trendyol side, Turkey's exchange rate stabilized, and the negative impact of the earthquake on Trendyol gradually disappeared in March, and the new market in Azerbaijan began to expand; the development strategy of Shopee, Lazada's core competitor in Southeast Asia, changed, from focusing on revenue to focusing on profit, and the competitive landscape slowed down somewhat in the short term. 3. The cloud business is still expected to be under pressure, and the price reduction strategy will take time to reflect Dependent on the macro...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # Before the market on August 10, EST, Alibaba will release its Q1 financial report for fiscal year 2024 (ending June 2023). Core views 1. Chinese businesses are expected to benefit from year-on-year growth in the overall retail market China's commercial business is expected to be driven by a recovery in domestic consumption this quarter. Total retail sales of consumer goods nationwide increased 18%/13%/3.1% year-on-year from April to June 2023. The implementation of a number of promotional activities is conducive to the rebound of GMV. However, competition in the industry is becoming increasingly heated, and focusing on low price competition may cause the growth rate of Alibaba's e-commerce business to be weaker than the overall market, while also affecting the increase in the monetization rate. 2. It is expected that the growth rate of international business will continue to increase this quarter As revenue expands and many negative factors have been mitigated, it is expected that international business losses will continue to narrow this quarter. On AliExpress's side, the impact of the European VAT VAT tax has been eliminated, the new feature AE Choice has received a good response, and the pilot project is gradually being expanded. On the Trendyol side, Turkey's exchange rate stabilized, and the negative impact of the earthquake on Trendyol gradually disappeared in March, and the new market in Azerbaijan began to expand; the development strategy of Shopee, Lazada's core competitor in Southeast Asia, changed, from focusing on revenue to focusing on profit, and the competitive landscape slowed down somewhat in the short term. 3. The cloud business is still expected to be under pressure, and the price reduction strategy will take time to reflect Dependent on the macro...
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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