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微軟業績不溫不火，關鍵業務發展不及預期？
富途研究
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Microsoft (MSFT.O) Quarterly Review: Short-term AI Contributes Limited to Performance

#睇業績用富途牛牛 #
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Microphone (MSFT.O)Quarterly Report: Short-Term AI-Financial Reporting Limited - Futu Security-20230726.pdf464.9K
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Microsoft (MSFT.O) released its FY23Q4 report on July 25, with results slightly outpacing market expectations, with after-market share prices falling more than 4% at the end of the day.
Core Viewpoint
Results fall short of market expectations, FY24Q1 results guidance moderated
FY23Q4 company revenue of $56.2 billion, YoY +8%, with revenue growth continuing to warm, mainly benefiting from growth in the smart cloud and productivity business. The company maintained high profit levels thanks to the adjustment of accounting criteria and the reduction in capital gains. FY23Q4
The company's gross margin increased by 70%; operating profit was $24.3 billion, YoY +18%, net profit was $20.1 billion, YoY +20%, diluted EPS was $2.69, YoY +21%. However, FY24Q1 performance guidance slowed, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26% at constant exchange rates.
Smart cloud business growth slows down, business remaining contracts slow
FY23Q4 Smart Cloud revenues were US$24 billion, +15% YoY (CC+17%), driven primarily by Microsoft Cloud Azure and other cloud businesses. Among them, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% (CC +27%). At constant exchange rates, Azure revenue growth dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 27%. In which AI contributes about 1% of revenue, which is basically in line with expectations. At constant exchange rates, FY23Q4 commercial outstanding contract amounts increased 18.5% year-over-year to $224 billion, continuing to decline significantly from 31.4% to 18.5% in FY23Q1. Over the long term, increased cloud penetration and AI demand growth are expected to continue to drive Azure revenue.
Copilot application speeds up, expected to increase office business revenue
FY23Q4 productivity and business process revenue was US$18.3 billion, up 10% (CC +12%). Among them, Office 365 business revenue grew 15% (CC +17%); Office consumer products and cloud services revenue grew 3% (CC +6%); Dynamics 365 revenue grew 26% (CC +28%). This quarter's productivity business did not reflect the impact of Copilot. Subsequent companies continued to expand Copilot across product lines, demonstrating Copilot's strong scalability in the Microsoft ecosystem. In addition to office Copilot, the company also launched GitHub Copilot, Security Copilot, Sales Copilot or Service Copilot. As Copilot commercialization accelerates, TAM's potential is expected to increase revenue from the company's productivity business and Microsoft ecosystem, such as driving Azure usage.
Investment Recommendations
Microsoft's quarterly results slightly exceeded market expectations, but FY24Q1 results guidance was subdued. In the short term, AI contributes little to company performance, and revenue growth remains sluggish, and performance will be under pressure. Productivity and business process revenue growth is expected to slow to 9-11%, and Smart Cloud revenue growth is expected to be flat at 15%-16%, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26%, according to company results.
In the long run, it is expected to have a positive impact on company performance as AI penetration gradually improves and applications such as Copilot are widely promoted. Revenue growth from AI is expected to be gradual with the expansion of Azure AI and the full rollout of Copilot, revenue growth from AI is expected to contribute significantly in the second half of FY24, according to the company's results release. The FY24 operating profit is expected to remain flat with the same period last year. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to adopt a covered call strategy in the short term.
Risk Alerts
AI commercialization falls short of expectations; expanded capital expenditure erodes profits; competition intensifies among peers; progress on acquisition proposals is hindered; macroeconomic risks.
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # occurrences Microsoft (MSFT.O) released its FY23Q4 report on July 25, with results slightly outpacing market expectations, with after-market share prices falling more than 4% at the end of the day. Core Viewpoint Results fall short of market expectations, FY24Q1 results guidance moderated FY23Q4 company revenue of $56.2 billion, YoY +8%, with revenue growth continuing to warm, mainly benefiting from growth in the smart cloud and productivity business. The company maintained high profit levels thanks to the adjustment of accounting criteria and the reduction in capital gains. FY23Q4 The company's gross margin increased by 70%; operating profit was $24.3 billion, YoY +18%, net profit was $20.1 billion, YoY +20%, diluted EPS was $2.69, YoY +21%. However, FY24Q1 performance guidance slowed, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26% at constant exchange rates. Smart cloud business growth slows down, business remaining contracts slow FY23Q4 Smart Cloud revenues were US$24 billion, +15% YoY (CC+17%), driven primarily by Microsoft Cloud Azure and other cloud businesses. Among them, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% (CC +27%). At constant exchange rates, Azure revenue growth dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 27%. In which AI contributes about 1% of revenue, basically meeting expectations...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # occurrences Microsoft (MSFT.O) released its FY23Q4 report on July 25, with results slightly outpacing market expectations, with after-market share prices falling more than 4% at the end of the day. Core Viewpoint Results fall short of market expectations, FY24Q1 results guidance moderated FY23Q4 company revenue of $56.2 billion, YoY +8%, with revenue growth continuing to warm, mainly benefiting from growth in the smart cloud and productivity business. The company maintained high profit levels thanks to the adjustment of accounting criteria and the reduction in capital gains. FY23Q4 The company's gross margin increased by 70%; operating profit was $24.3 billion, YoY +18%, net profit was $20.1 billion, YoY +20%, diluted EPS was $2.69, YoY +21%. However, FY24Q1 performance guidance slowed, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26% at constant exchange rates. Smart cloud business growth slows down, business remaining contracts slow FY23Q4 Smart Cloud revenues were US$24 billion, +15% YoY (CC+17%), driven primarily by Microsoft Cloud Azure and other cloud businesses. Among them, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% (CC +27%). At constant exchange rates, Azure revenue growth dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 27%. In which AI contributes about 1% of revenue, basically meeting expectations...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # occurrences Microsoft (MSFT.O) released its FY23Q4 report on July 25, with results slightly outpacing market expectations, with after-market share prices falling more than 4% at the end of the day. Core Viewpoint Results fall short of market expectations, FY24Q1 results guidance moderated FY23Q4 company revenue of $56.2 billion, YoY +8%, with revenue growth continuing to warm, mainly benefiting from growth in the smart cloud and productivity business. The company maintained high profit levels thanks to the adjustment of accounting criteria and the reduction in capital gains. FY23Q4 The company's gross margin increased by 70%; operating profit was $24.3 billion, YoY +18%, net profit was $20.1 billion, YoY +20%, diluted EPS was $2.69, YoY +21%. However, FY24Q1 performance guidance slowed, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26% at constant exchange rates. Smart cloud business growth slows down, business remaining contracts slow FY23Q4 Smart Cloud revenues were US$24 billion, +15% YoY (CC+17%), driven primarily by Microsoft Cloud Azure and other cloud businesses. Among them, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% (CC +27%). At constant exchange rates, Azure revenue growth dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 27%. In which AI contributes about 1% of revenue, basically meeting expectations...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # occurrences Microsoft (MSFT.O) released its FY23Q4 report on July 25, with results slightly outpacing market expectations, with after-market share prices falling more than 4% at the end of the day. Core Viewpoint Results fall short of market expectations, FY24Q1 results guidance moderated FY23Q4 company revenue of $56.2 billion, YoY +8%, with revenue growth continuing to warm, mainly benefiting from growth in the smart cloud and productivity business. The company maintained high profit levels thanks to the adjustment of accounting criteria and the reduction in capital gains. FY23Q4 The company's gross margin increased by 70%; operating profit was $24.3 billion, YoY +18%, net profit was $20.1 billion, YoY +20%, diluted EPS was $2.69, YoY +21%. However, FY24Q1 performance guidance slowed, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26% at constant exchange rates. Smart cloud business growth slows down, business remaining contracts slow FY23Q4 Smart Cloud revenues were US$24 billion, +15% YoY (CC+17%), driven primarily by Microsoft Cloud Azure and other cloud businesses. Among them, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% (CC +27%). At constant exchange rates, Azure revenue growth dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 27%. In which AI contributes about 1% of revenue, basically meeting expectations...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # occurrences Microsoft (MSFT.O) released its FY23Q4 report on July 25, with results slightly outpacing market expectations, with after-market share prices falling more than 4% at the end of the day. Core Viewpoint Results fall short of market expectations, FY24Q1 results guidance moderated FY23Q4 company revenue of $56.2 billion, YoY +8%, with revenue growth continuing to warm, mainly benefiting from growth in the smart cloud and productivity business. The company maintained high profit levels thanks to the adjustment of accounting criteria and the reduction in capital gains. FY23Q4 The company's gross margin increased by 70%; operating profit was $24.3 billion, YoY +18%, net profit was $20.1 billion, YoY +20%, diluted EPS was $2.69, YoY +21%. However, FY24Q1 performance guidance slowed, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26% at constant exchange rates. Smart cloud business growth slows down, business remaining contracts slow FY23Q4 Smart Cloud revenues were US$24 billion, +15% YoY (CC+17%), driven primarily by Microsoft Cloud Azure and other cloud businesses. Among them, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% (CC +27%). At constant exchange rates, Azure revenue growth dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 27%. In which AI contributes about 1% of revenue, basically meeting expectations...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # occurrences Microsoft (MSFT.O) released its FY23Q4 report on July 25, with results slightly outpacing market expectations, with after-market share prices falling more than 4% at the end of the day. Core Viewpoint Results fall short of market expectations, FY24Q1 results guidance moderated FY23Q4 company revenue of $56.2 billion, YoY +8%, with revenue growth continuing to warm, mainly benefiting from growth in the smart cloud and productivity business. The company maintained high profit levels thanks to the adjustment of accounting criteria and the reduction in capital gains. FY23Q4 The company's gross margin increased by 70%; operating profit was $24.3 billion, YoY +18%, net profit was $20.1 billion, YoY +20%, diluted EPS was $2.69, YoY +21%. However, FY24Q1 performance guidance slowed, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26% at constant exchange rates. Smart cloud business growth slows down, business remaining contracts slow FY23Q4 Smart Cloud revenues were US$24 billion, +15% YoY (CC+17%), driven primarily by Microsoft Cloud Azure and other cloud businesses. Among them, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% (CC +27%). At constant exchange rates, Azure revenue growth dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 27%. In which AI contributes about 1% of revenue, basically meeting expectations...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # occurrences Microsoft (MSFT.O) released its FY23Q4 report on July 25, with results slightly outpacing market expectations, with after-market share prices falling more than 4% at the end of the day. Core Viewpoint Results fall short of market expectations, FY24Q1 results guidance moderated FY23Q4 company revenue of $56.2 billion, YoY +8%, with revenue growth continuing to warm, mainly benefiting from growth in the smart cloud and productivity business. The company maintained high profit levels thanks to the adjustment of accounting criteria and the reduction in capital gains. FY23Q4 The company's gross margin increased by 70%; operating profit was $24.3 billion, YoY +18%, net profit was $20.1 billion, YoY +20%, diluted EPS was $2.69, YoY +21%. However, FY24Q1 performance guidance slowed, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26% at constant exchange rates. Smart cloud business growth slows down, business remaining contracts slow FY23Q4 Smart Cloud revenues were US$24 billion, +15% YoY (CC+17%), driven primarily by Microsoft Cloud Azure and other cloud businesses. Among them, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% (CC +27%). At constant exchange rates, Azure revenue growth dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 27%. In which AI contributes about 1% of revenue, basically meeting expectations...
#睇業績用富途牛牛 # occurrences Microsoft (MSFT.O) released its FY23Q4 report on July 25, with results slightly outpacing market expectations, with after-market share prices falling more than 4% at the end of the day. Core Viewpoint Results fall short of market expectations, FY24Q1 results guidance moderated FY23Q4 company revenue of $56.2 billion, YoY +8%, with revenue growth continuing to warm, mainly benefiting from growth in the smart cloud and productivity business. The company maintained high profit levels thanks to the adjustment of accounting criteria and the reduction in capital gains. FY23Q4 The company's gross margin increased by 70%; operating profit was $24.3 billion, YoY +18%, net profit was $20.1 billion, YoY +20%, diluted EPS was $2.69, YoY +21%. However, FY24Q1 performance guidance slowed, with Azure revenue growth slowing to 25%-26% at constant exchange rates. Smart cloud business growth slows down, business remaining contracts slow FY23Q4 Smart Cloud revenues were US$24 billion, +15% YoY (CC+17%), driven primarily by Microsoft Cloud Azure and other cloud businesses. Among them, Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% (CC +27%). At constant exchange rates, Azure revenue growth dropped from 31% in the previous quarter to 27%. In which AI contributes about 1% of revenue, basically meeting expectations...
$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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