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Tesla's earnings forecast: sales volume exceeds expectations, gross margin may continue to be under pressure

occurrences
Tesla will release financial results for the second quarter of 2023 after the US stock market closes on July 19, EST (July 20, Beijing time).
Core ideas
1. Automobile business: sales exceed expectations, gross margin may continue to be under pressure
In the second quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 46.61 million vehicles, an increase of 10.2% over the previous quarter. This figure was 4.7% higher than the market's estimate of 44.5 million vehicles. We believe that Tesla's sales exceeded expectations due to its price reduction and concession policies in North America, including sales price cuts in North America in April, promotion policies such as a full subsidy of $7,500 for users of the Model 3 model range, free charging, and flexible insurance benefits.
With the announcement of Q2 sales, the market's focus shifted to the company's Q2 gross profit margin. Tesla's gross margin for the first quarter was only 19.3%, falling below the 20% red line and falling 6.3% month-on-month, which significantly affected market sentiment. According to Bloomberg, the market generally expects Tesla's Q2 gross margin to be 18.7%, down 0.6% month-on-month, mainly due to Tesla's price reduction and concession strategy in the US.
2. AI business: There was almost no performance implementation in the short term, but it contributed nearly half of the valuation
The strong performance of the company's stock price since May is mainly due to investors' pursuit of the AI concept. Tesla has always had a presence in the fields of artificial intelligence and technology. Musk has also talked many times about the opportunities that fully automated driving, Tesla robots, and Dojo supercomputers bring to Tesla. The market seems more willing to believe that Tesla is an “AI concept stock,” followed by an automobile manufacturer.
3. Stock Price Review: Tesla's recent rise is mainly driven by AI concepts
Tesla's stock price performance has been strong recently. From early May to the end of June 2023, Tesla shares rose 59.3%, while the S&P 500 rose only 6.7% during the same period. The rise was mainly due to:
1) The company's fundamentals improved Q2 deliveries exceeded expectations.
2) Driven by a series of important events (such as GM, Ford Motor's cooperation with Tesla, progress in fully autonomous driving technology, Elon Musk's visit to China, participation in artificial intelligence conferences)
3) The macro environment where leading US technology stocks significantly outperformed the market (the top 7 US technology stocks surpassed the S&P 500 index by a large margin in the first half of the year)
Investment advice
Tesla's financial performance is expected to be in line with market expectations. Combined with stock prices, considering Tesla's excessive increase in previous months, it is difficult to reflect Tesla's AI business layout (FSD, Tesla robots, and Dojo supercomputers) within a few years. At that time, Tesla's earnings data may remind investors to refocus on Tesla's fundamentals: Currently, Tesla is still an automobile manufacturer, and its AI business cannot even be reflected in the profit table.
In terms of strategy, it is recommended to adopt prudent investment policies such as covered calls, and it is not recommended to go higher.
Risk Alerts
The macroeconomy fell short of expectations; economic recovery fell short of expectations; electric vehicle sales fell short of expectations; policies fell short of expectations.
full text
occurrences Tesla will release financial results for the second quarter of 2023 after the US stock market closes on July 19, EST (July 20, Beijing time). Core ideas 1. Automobile business: sales exceed expectations, gross margin may continue to be under pressure In the second quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 46.61 million vehicles, an increase of 10.2% over the previous quarter. This figure was 4.7% higher than the market's estimate of 44.5 million vehicles. We believe that Tesla's sales exceeded expectations due to its price reduction and concession policies in North America, including sales price cuts in North America in April, promotion policies such as a full subsidy of $7,500 for users of the Model 3 model range, free charging, and flexible insurance benefits. With the announcement of Q2 sales, the market's focus shifted to the company's Q2 gross profit margin. Tesla's gross margin for the first quarter was only 19.3%, falling below the 20% red line and falling 6.3% month-on-month, which significantly affected market sentiment. According to Bloomberg, the market generally expects Tesla's Q2 gross margin to be 18.7%, down 0.6% month-on-month, mainly due to Tesla's price reduction and concession strategy in the US. 2. AI business: There was almost no performance implementation in the short term, but it contributed nearly half of the valuation The strong performance of the company's stock price since May is mainly due to investors' pursuit of the AI concept. Tesla has always been in the field of artificial intelligence, technology...
occurrences Tesla will release financial results for the second quarter of 2023 after the US stock market closes on July 19, EST (July 20, Beijing time). Core ideas 1. Automobile business: sales exceed expectations, gross margin may continue to be under pressure In the second quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 46.61 million vehicles, an increase of 10.2% over the previous quarter. This figure was 4.7% higher than the market's estimate of 44.5 million vehicles. We believe that Tesla's sales exceeded expectations due to its price reduction and concession policies in North America, including sales price cuts in North America in April, promotion policies such as a full subsidy of $7,500 for users of the Model 3 model range, free charging, and flexible insurance benefits. With the announcement of Q2 sales, the market's focus shifted to the company's Q2 gross profit margin. Tesla's gross margin for the first quarter was only 19.3%, falling below the 20% red line and falling 6.3% month-on-month, which significantly affected market sentiment. According to Bloomberg, the market generally expects Tesla's Q2 gross margin to be 18.7%, down 0.6% month-on-month, mainly due to Tesla's price reduction and concession strategy in the US. 2. AI business: There was almost no performance implementation in the short term, but it contributed nearly half of the valuation The strong performance of the company's stock price since May is mainly due to investors' pursuit of the AI concept. Tesla has always been in the field of artificial intelligence, technology...
occurrences Tesla will release financial results for the second quarter of 2023 after the US stock market closes on July 19, EST (July 20, Beijing time). Core ideas 1. Automobile business: sales exceed expectations, gross margin may continue to be under pressure In the second quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 46.61 million vehicles, an increase of 10.2% over the previous quarter. This figure was 4.7% higher than the market's estimate of 44.5 million vehicles. We believe that Tesla's sales exceeded expectations due to its price reduction and concession policies in North America, including sales price cuts in North America in April, promotion policies such as a full subsidy of $7,500 for users of the Model 3 model range, free charging, and flexible insurance benefits. With the announcement of Q2 sales, the market's focus shifted to the company's Q2 gross profit margin. Tesla's gross margin for the first quarter was only 19.3%, falling below the 20% red line and falling 6.3% month-on-month, which significantly affected market sentiment. According to Bloomberg, the market generally expects Tesla's Q2 gross margin to be 18.7%, down 0.6% month-on-month, mainly due to Tesla's price reduction and concession strategy in the US. 2. AI business: There was almost no performance implementation in the short term, but it contributed nearly half of the valuation The strong performance of the company's stock price since May is mainly due to investors' pursuit of the AI concept. Tesla has always been in the field of artificial intelligence, technology...
occurrences Tesla will release financial results for the second quarter of 2023 after the US stock market closes on July 19, EST (July 20, Beijing time). Core ideas 1. Automobile business: sales exceed expectations, gross margin may continue to be under pressure In the second quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 46.61 million vehicles, an increase of 10.2% over the previous quarter. This figure was 4.7% higher than the market's estimate of 44.5 million vehicles. We believe that Tesla's sales exceeded expectations due to its price reduction and concession policies in North America, including sales price cuts in North America in April, promotion policies such as a full subsidy of $7,500 for users of the Model 3 model range, free charging, and flexible insurance benefits. With the announcement of Q2 sales, the market's focus shifted to the company's Q2 gross profit margin. Tesla's gross margin for the first quarter was only 19.3%, falling below the 20% red line and falling 6.3% month-on-month, which significantly affected market sentiment. According to Bloomberg, the market generally expects Tesla's Q2 gross margin to be 18.7%, down 0.6% month-on-month, mainly due to Tesla's price reduction and concession strategy in the US. 2. AI business: There was almost no performance implementation in the short term, but it contributed nearly half of the valuation The strong performance of the company's stock price since May is mainly due to investors' pursuit of the AI concept. Tesla has always been in the field of artificial intelligence, technology...
occurrences Tesla will release financial results for the second quarter of 2023 after the US stock market closes on July 19, EST (July 20, Beijing time). Core ideas 1. Automobile business: sales exceed expectations, gross margin may continue to be under pressure In the second quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 46.61 million vehicles, an increase of 10.2% over the previous quarter. This figure was 4.7% higher than the market's estimate of 44.5 million vehicles. We believe that Tesla's sales exceeded expectations due to its price reduction and concession policies in North America, including sales price cuts in North America in April, promotion policies such as a full subsidy of $7,500 for users of the Model 3 model range, free charging, and flexible insurance benefits. With the announcement of Q2 sales, the market's focus shifted to the company's Q2 gross profit margin. Tesla's gross margin for the first quarter was only 19.3%, falling below the 20% red line and falling 6.3% month-on-month, which significantly affected market sentiment. According to Bloomberg, the market generally expects Tesla's Q2 gross margin to be 18.7%, down 0.6% month-on-month, mainly due to Tesla's price reduction and concession strategy in the US. 2. AI business: There was almost no performance implementation in the short term, but it contributed nearly half of the valuation The strong performance of the company's stock price since May is mainly due to investors' pursuit of the AI concept. Tesla has always been in the field of artificial intelligence, technology...
occurrences Tesla will release financial results for the second quarter of 2023 after the US stock market closes on July 19, EST (July 20, Beijing time). Core ideas 1. Automobile business: sales exceed expectations, gross margin may continue to be under pressure In the second quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 46.61 million vehicles, an increase of 10.2% over the previous quarter. This figure was 4.7% higher than the market's estimate of 44.5 million vehicles. We believe that Tesla's sales exceeded expectations due to its price reduction and concession policies in North America, including sales price cuts in North America in April, promotion policies such as a full subsidy of $7,500 for users of the Model 3 model range, free charging, and flexible insurance benefits. With the announcement of Q2 sales, the market's focus shifted to the company's Q2 gross profit margin. Tesla's gross margin for the first quarter was only 19.3%, falling below the 20% red line and falling 6.3% month-on-month, which significantly affected market sentiment. According to Bloomberg, the market generally expects Tesla's Q2 gross margin to be 18.7%, down 0.6% month-on-month, mainly due to Tesla's price reduction and concession strategy in the US. 2. AI business: There was almost no performance implementation in the short term, but it contributed nearly half of the valuation The strong performance of the company's stock price since May is mainly due to investors' pursuit of the AI concept. Tesla has always been in the field of artificial intelligence, technology...
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Tesla Earnings Forecast: Sales Exceed Expectations, Gross Margin May Continue to Pressure -230714.pdf542.4K
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