【Guess and Win】As Larry Bo the Inflation Tamer has not even reached half, a 'Silicon Valley Bank' emerges out of the blue, how many basis points will the interest rate hike be in March?

Larry Bo the Inflation Tamer has not even reached half.

, and$SVB Financial (SIVBQ.US)$A sudden tragedy in the halfway.

, today take three points, $Signature Bank (SBNY.US)$ and bankrupt again.

This is truly a critical moment of life and death.

However, the ministers (led by the Ministry of Finance Ms. Yellen) are unremitting internally, while the loyalists (major investment banks and venture capital institutions offering advice) are sacrificing themselves externally, chasing after the extraordinary treatment of U.S. stocks, hoping to repay the favor to Old Powell. It is truly appropriate to open up and listen attentively, to honor the legacy of Volcker, to restore the spirits of loyalists. It is not advisable to underestimate oneself, to distort analogies, thereby blocking the path of faithful counsel.

The interest rate hike in March has become even more unpredictable.

Before March 10, the U.S. February non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, according to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike exceeded 60%, with the market believing that a 50 basis point rate hike is a "foregone conclusion".

However, following the Silicon Valley bank incident, in the latest article, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Wire Service", pointed out that Friday's non-farm payroll data will not change Federal Reserve officials' judgment on the economic outlook and rate hikes. Yet, the turmoil caused by the Silicon Valley bank collapse significantly dampened expectations of a 50 basis point increase in interest rates. He stated that Wall Street investors are concerned that the Silicon Valley bank's failure may threaten financial stability on a broader scale.

On March 13 Beijing time, Goldman Sachs suddenly released an "ultra-doveish" forecast: "Given recent pressures on the banking system, there is no longer an expectation for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise rates at its March 22 meeting; the expectation for rate hikes of 25 basis points in May, June, and July remains unchanged, with the final rate forecasted to be 5.25-5.5%."

CME's "Fed Watch" indicates a probability of over 95.2% for a 25 basis point rate hike in March.

To add or not to add, this is a question!

Come to the comment section and let's discuss your views on the March interest rate hike~

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Event Time: Until 04:00 on March 23, 2023, Beijing time (expected within 2 hours after the announcement of the March interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve).

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